Is this the breakout year for DJ? Look at comparable players

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JiveTalkinRobot
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After taking a look at some comps, you can start to see a similar pattern of development for athletic, raw, project big men.

I wrote about it here, with some data:

http://www.clipsnation.com/2012/10/24/3 ... dre-Jordan

CapsNClips
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That was a GREAT bundle of info in that article, Thanks. Hopefully Dj can become as good as Joakim, which is a realistic goal for this season.

clipcast3
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His work on the offensive end in the preseason look better than Noah's... The only game DJ didn't play great in the preseason, he was still a force on D and on the boards.

JiveTalkinRobot
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Agreed, but I'll reserve the judgement on offense until at least a quarter of the way into the preseason. Also, I don't think he will get nearly as many touches in the regular season.

CP3Best
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But his defense is still good nontheless, and I'll take his awesome dunks any time, no reason not to!

CapsNClips
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The best part about a Center who can score with his back to the basket like DJ is if we don't have a play you can always just drop the ball in his hands and have him go to town. Obviously he isn't an Offensive force "yet" but, it's the equivalant to a bailout Iso play but with better chance of scoring.

CP3Best
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Imagine what DJ will be able to do this year and the next and the one after that, man am I glad we matched his offer sheet!

clipperboy24
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a lot of info but also the info is a little contradictory as his per 36 mpg production has been decreasing. Now if you compare the actual averages of many players in their first 4 years and then show their breakout year that would be better. Also using Camby and Bynum isnt a great comparison because Camby was good out of the gate and changed from an offensive minded player to a defensive minded player and both were decimated by injuries and Bynum played well once he actually played.

A better comparison might be Jermaine Oneal, Divac to minor extent broke out in his fifth year, or even Olowokandi (minor breakout in 5th year and yes it was a contract year). Jermaine Oneal is really what we are hoping for though.

CapsNClips
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The bottom line is nobody can predict the future of DJ, but these statistics are very comforting to know that history backs up what we are seeing now. I agree with you clipperboy24, if we can get an all-star center like Jermaine out of DJ than we made out like bandits in giving Dj a $10mil a year contract.

JiveTalkinRobot
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Not sure what you define as production...both his PER and WS have been increasing.

Camby was hyped, but was not good his first two years, in most advanced stats, he was actually terrible. Extremely low win shares, low defense rating, mediocre offense rating. His offense was also overrated, an eFG of 48.3% and 41.2% is abysmal for a big man.

Bynum, I threw him in for some balance. His second season he was average at best, with PER of 15.4 and WS of .112, defensive rating of 106 (terrible). Simple stats: 7.8 pts, 6.9 rebounds in 22 minutes with 82 games played. He got injured in his 3rd.

JiveTalkinRobot
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Also, for per 36, you have to take into account that isn't linear. His first season he was playing 14 minutes a game.

clipperboy24
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^^^ thats why the bigs stats are used better on a non per 36 basis. If they actually do breakout they will show it in actual production not extrapolated production. As for the other ratings, not a big fan. Efficiency ratings dont always work out in reality. On paper they look great, but dont always mean much, especially when you see that the team as a whole improved which helped his ratings while he wasnt improving much.

CP3Best
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Man I wonder why the likes of Jordan, Hollins, and Turiaf are performing so wonderfully in this preseason, just good Lord do I hope they carry it over to the regular season!

JiveTalkinRobot
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Surprisingly (or maybe not so surprisingly), actual production stats tell the same story.

Not sure how you can see he wasn't improving much, his PER (individual stat based) has been increasing.

Just pointing out his free throws show how much he has improved.

The only thing that has taken a slight dip (besides points) is defensive rebounding. Learning to box out should help. Also factor in that Blake might be eating up a few.

JiveTalkinRobot
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I don't think Jordan's offense will translate...because he won't be getting as much usage. I do think his improved defense will still be there.

Hollins looks more motivated...he's playing against benches in the preseason and will continue to play against benches in the regular season. Hopefully he wont drop off too much.

CP3Best
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I don't see any reason to drop off. Our bench is gonna be dominant this season, it just showed in yesterday's game, Clips down by one, BTOH TEAMS INSERT THEIR BENCHES, Clippers end the half leading by 9 points, same thing in the 3rd DJ was playing crap we put in Barnes and immediately he made a steal and one on the other end, that's how we won the game! OUR AWESOME BENCH!

JiveTalkinRobot
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Good to see that DJ isn't dropping off and preseason wasn't a mirage.

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