INSIDER: Should the Clips try to get Garnett?

Clippers TopBuzz Forum/Message Board » Clipper Rumors
Post new topic   Reply to topic
Author Search This Topic:
 
FightOnRon
CTB MVP X1
 Avatar
Posts: 4675
Location: The Darkside
us.gif
votes: 37

"Flags fly forever." That's the phrase our friends at Baseball Prospectus use to argue in favor of teams making bold moves to maximize their chances of winning championships, even if they come with long-term costs. That's the kind of opportunity the Los Angeles Clippers may have in front of them if Kevin Garnett is willing to accept a trade to L.A. The chance of putting a Clippers banner in the rafters of the Staples Center to go with the many banners the Lakers have hung there is precisely why the Clippers should do so, if possible.

The Sporting News reported that the Clippers approached the Boston Celtics about a deal for Garnett before the two teams played Sunday in Boston. While sources told our Chris Broussard that the teams have not talked, they may begin discussions before the Feb. 21 trade deadline.

Pelton: Would deal boost title bid?

Any package for Garnett would surely be built around promising third-year guard Eric Bledsoe and small forward Caron Butler, whose presence is necessary to make the salaries match. The teams could also throw in Leandro Barbosa and Ryan Hollins, playing on identical one-year contracts, to balance out each other's rosters. (View this trade in ESPN's Trade Machine.)

The Risk

In the short term, the Clippers would have to replace two members of their rotation and revamp their stellar second unit. Though Butler is a starter, he would be easier to replace because the Clippers have tremendous depth at small forward. Matt Barnes has turned in the best season of his career and is actually playing more minutes off the bench than Butler is as a starter, while Grant Hill is back in the lineup and capable of ramping up his minutes if the Clippers trade Butler.

Replacing Bledsoe would be trickier. For one, he's starting at point guard while Chris Paul deals with a bruised right kneecap. No timetable has been set for Paul's return. The Clippers also don't know when they'll have Chauncey Billups back in the lineup or what kind of play they can expect from the veteran, who has suffered from peroneal tendonitis since returning from a ruptured Achilles. That leaves Bledsoe as the lone healthy point guard on the roster. Jamal Crawford has filled in for Bledsoe with the second unit, but Crawford is a natural scorer whose game suffers when he's asked to also serve as a playmaker.

In the long term, the Clippers would hate to give up Bledsoe, their most promising prospect and someone we recently picked for Insider's list of the Top 25 NBA players under age 25. Bledsoe represents their insurance in case Paul unexpectedly leaves as an unrestricted free agent next summer or experiences long-term problems from the torn meniscus he suffered in 2010. (The bone bruise that currently has Paul on the sidelines affects the same knee.)

The Upside

Garnett would be a perfect fit next to Blake Griffin in the Clippers' frontcourt. Coach Vinny Del Negro has gotten improved production from center DeAndre Jordan this season, and Lamar Odom and Ronny Turiaf are a solid pair of backup big men. However, none of the three is a reliable counterpart for Griffin down the stretch. Jordan is vulnerable to the Hack-a-Shaq strategy and poses little threat on offense, so Del Negro has tended to finish games with Odom and Griffin together. That duo lacks shot-blocking skill and relies on defenses continuing to respect Odom's jumper even though he's 6-of-50 from 3-point range this season.

Imagine replacing Odom in that finishing lineup with Garnett. Suddenly, the Clippers have one of the league's best defenders anchoring the paint and making opponents think twice about driving. At the other end, Garnett's well-honed midrange game would complement Griffin in the post. He also would give Del Negro another option in the pick-and-roll game with Paul.

How much might that upgrade be worth? My SCHOENE projection system says a little better than three wins over the course of a full season. That might understate the case, since Garnett's defensive impact can't be quantified from box-score stats. Adjusted plus/minus shows Garnett, 36, as one of the league's best big men -- 3 points per 100 possessions better than Jordan, 4 better than Odom and 5 better than Turiaf.

Sealing the Deal?

The Clippers may not have to make the tough choice on a Garnett trade. Not only must the veteran approve any deal because of his rare no-trade clause, but the Celtics' win over the Clippers on Sunday was their fourth in a row. Even without Rajon Rondo and Jared Sullinger, president of basketball operations Danny Ainge might be inclined to keep his veterans rather than sell them off before the deadline.

If everything else falls into place, I think the Clippers must take the risk on Garnett. For one, they're going to have to make a decision on Bledsoe at some point. He is eligible for an extension this summer and would be a restricted free agent in 2014. If the Clippers re-sign Paul, it seems unlikely they would keep Bledsoe around as a backup, especially since another team will surely offer him starter's money.

More than that, I think the opportunity is too unique for a franchise that has never so much as reached the conference finals. Already, the Clippers have shown a win-now mentality by signing veteran free agents like Crawford and Hill last summer -- moves endorsed by Paul, who's in a hurry to contend. Adding Garnett could be enough to elevate the Clippers to the position of co-favorites in the Western Conference, helping them on a path to the NBA Finals that figures to go through both Oklahoma City and San Antonio. Against teams of equal talent, the difference between Garnett and the other options next to Griffin would be magnified.

Even the conservative assessment of a three-win difference shows that adding Garnett would increase the chances of a Clippers championship by 50 percent in simulations (from 6.5 percent of the time to 9.4 percent). Realistically, the difference might be even greater. And while organizations can't hang partial banners, improving the chances of flying the real thing makes trading for Garnett worth it for the Clippers.

Other Destinations?

It's hard to find teams in the Eastern Conference that have the right combination of need, assets and the opportunity to win for a Garnett trade to make sense. The Chicago Bulls could be the exception, if they were willing to trade second-year wing Jimmy Butler, but their timetable is more long-term since Derrick Rose won't be 100 percent this season. Besides the Clippers, there are a couple of other possibilities in the West. The Oklahoma City Thunder are the most intriguing destination. Upgrading from Kendrick Perkins in the middle would make the Thunder the overwhelming favorite to win the title, and Oklahoma City has enough young assets (including rookies Perry Jones III and Jeremy Lamb and the rights to Toronto's protected first-round pick) to make a deal like this without overhauling its rotation. The Houston Rockets also have prospects to spare and an appetite for stars, though they are probably too far away from contending to make a Garnett trade work in their favor, as the Clippers can.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/ ... in-garnett

pageC4
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 4510

us.gif
votes: 22

The Clippers trading for Kevin Garnett equates to the same stupidity the Lakers did when they traded away their future for an old steve nash. Pass on Garnett

GRIFFINSANITY
Clipper Starter
Posts: 385

us.gif
votes: 1

Only trade if we keep Bledsoe and trade butler and odom/any other big on our team excluding BG

jarca
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 7964

rp.gif
votes: 35

bledsoe isnt staying after this year and caron is inconsistent. trading dj for garnett, that's mortgaging the future. but caron and bledsoe are most likely a gonner after this season

sfernald
Clipper Starter
Posts: 462
votes: 7

I like the idea of getting barbosa and giving up Hollins in the deal. That would really help balance our roster. Also, celtics like Hollins a lot and need a big so I could see that happening.

PolishRifle
Clipper Rookie
Posts: 98
votes: 0

^This.

bullterrierclipsfan1349
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 4526

mx.gif
votes: 30

only way id give up ebled+butler+hollins or odom for kg is if they throw in lee and barbosa

sfernald
Clipper Starter
Posts: 462
votes: 7


Repped High Quality Post

Lee + Barbosa or Bradley + Barbosa. I'm sure it would be one of the two options. They have too many guards too so it would be to help balance their roster as well.

GhostShip
Clipper All-Star
Posts: 1094
Location: Ralph Lawlers backyard
us.gif
votes: 9

bradley would be perfect

bullterrierclipsfan1349
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 4526

mx.gif
votes: 30

idk i think lee would be more perfect. hes a better shooter, defense is solid, and hes 6'5, which can help us guard legit 2's. i mean either one would be great, but id go with lee.

FightOnRon
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 4675
Location: The Darkside
us.gif
votes: 37

PolishRifle wrote:
pageC4 wrote:
The Clippers trading for Kevin Garnett equates to the same stupidity the Lakers did when they traded away their future for an old steve nash. Pass on Garnett

^This.

This and I raise you a this

82-0
Posts: 1360
votes: 3

Are you kidding me? That's a joke, right?

So you're perfectly willing to trust DJ, Turiaf, and Hollins in the playoffs? Because I'm not.

bullterrierclipsfan1349
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 4526

mx.gif
votes: 30

82-0, shut up already, its not like the front office gives a f*** about who u trust, or what we think. pagec4 makes a good point. you are giving up too much in butler + bledsoe to get an aging garnett. we will keep getting older, without any assurances that we win a title by adding garnett. i think a butler+ first rd pick this season is more than fair for kg, considering we would be taking his big contract on for the next 2 years

Amnesty_David_Stern
Clipper All-Star
Posts: 2333
votes: 7

I don't trust DJ in the playoffs. And I don't trust a front court of Odom and Griffin in the playoffs when it gets to the 3rd/4th quarter either.

I wouldn't MIND Garnett on the team, but I think we can get someone a little bit younger who doesn't have a giant salary for Bledsoe.

Realistically though, we need to really think about moving Bledsoe because with his taste of being a starter a lot over the last couple months and all the attention he's been getting, I really think he leaves for nothing in the summer.

I really think we can get something really nice for Bledsoe. I wonder if Milwaukee would be willing to move Dalembert to us. Problem is he makes 6.7 million dollars and Bledsoe makes like 1/5th of that, maybe.

We should really be in the market to either get a replacement for DJ or to get someone who can fill in for 20-25 MPG when DJ sits 20-25MPG so we don't have to rely on Turiaf, Hollins and Odom as much at the 5 spot. I'd also be willing to look at ZaZa Pachulia to play 20 MPG for us at the 5 spot. He can score, grab a steal a night and rebound and he isn't a massive liability nor would he cost us an arm and a leg.

And if Atlanta moves Josh Smith for say Kris Humphries and MArshon Brooks, Zaza can be moved without much hesitation.

JTClipsfan86
Clipper D-League Pickup
Posts: 43
votes: 0

Im really getting tired of people hating on DJ, the guy is awesome, he is one of the hardest working players on the team and is only getting better...his low post game is improving and is really the only player on our team who can play with his back to the basket. Im pretty sure Garnett has publicly said he wants to end his career in boston, and the guy is like 65, so why are we even pursuing him anymore. Bled should probably be moved just because he has a high value right now with a lot of teams, probably more than he is really worth (he wasn't a great starter for us, far too many turnovers and not the best vision or bball IQ). We should focus on moving LO, as the guy is absolute garbage. Seriously id rather have 4 players on the court than have odom out there, send the guy to the d-league and put him out of his misery.

Amnesty_David_Stern
Clipper All-Star
Posts: 2333
votes: 7

We all love DJ, the problem is he's not moving along as quickly as he should be. He's been in the league for what, 4-5 years now and he should be better than where he is at currently. This is his 3rd season as a full time starter.

DJ has logged in over 200 games as a starting C in the NBA and there is a reason why he doesn't play more than 20-25 MPG. That reason is he's a big liability on defense, has no offense, can't hit free throws and doesn't play good man defense.

Last year we all saw DJ take a good step forward but he's regressing this season. The reason as to why the Clippers want Garnett, outside of wanting to win a title this year is plain and simple. DJ isn't good enough to start for this team and for us to ride him as a starting center in the playoffs.

If DJ can't prove he's worthy of playing 30+ minutes a night, give us good to great man defense then I think it's time we upgrade our big men on the bench, or we find an upgrade for him. If anyone thinks were overpaying him they are nuts because we are, and it's sad.

JTClipsfan86
Clipper D-League Pickup
Posts: 43
votes: 0

Ill admit he isn't as good as he should be, but neither is blake really...with his athleticism there's no reason he should only be pulling down 8.5 boards a night and less than a block a game, but thats besides the point. Locker room morale is a really underrated factor in the NBA, there's a reason why teams have such a record discrepancy at home verses away, its because these players are very dependant on their mindsets, and DJ unites the team. I think that alone is worthy of him starting on this team.

Amnesty_David_Stern
Clipper All-Star
Posts: 2333
votes: 7

Blakes per 36 avg is 20+ points, 9.5 boards and 4 dimes. His rebounding is down a little bit this year, but he's only playing 32 minutes a game, and were kicking butt so there's no need to overwork Blake. I will admit that Blake does need to board a bit more, but Vinny has him taking jump shots and he's been guarding people who play further away from the basket at times.

The entire team isn't rebounding like it should but the fact is that DJ isn't a guy whom you can put on the floor for 30+ minutes a night because he has gaping flaws in his game that make him a giant risk. If we were a horrible team I could see them playing him a lot just because.

Blake will pick it up a bit more as the season goes on, DJ needs to really focus on playing defense and most importantly boxing out and rebounding.

tense2
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 8769
votes: 20

^ Look at DJ's PER 36 mins and advanced numbers, he's doing just fine except for his FT's.

Go To the Top of the ThreadGo Home

or Comment Using FB

Post new topic   Reply to topic


← Anyone see that pic of CP3's knee,leg,foot on social network

→ Espn Insider Reports Danny Granger Good Fit for the Clippers

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum

register
You are an anonymous user- Register now!


Follow our Los Angeles Clippers RSS Feed, plus the Clippers Rumors RSS Feed, the LA Clippers News RSS feed, and the Clippers Forum RSS feed to get the newest updated Clippers News and Trade Rumors plus Clippers Game update in your RSS/XML reader!