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CP3Heliflopter
Post ID: 407440by CP3Heliflopter » Oct 13, 2013 - 07:48 PM PST
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Neither does watching a few games. In fact, the stats guy is usually more accurate than the guy who just watches a couple of games(I know a lot of guys who do that and barely know anything).

Obviously its best if you watch games as well. Box score watching only goes so far. Its much better to watch games than box scores but box scores are nice if you don't have time to watch.



                
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clipperboy24
Post ID: 407442by clipperboy24 » Oct 13, 2013 - 08:09 PM PST
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Yep, both are helpful to make proper analysis. And statistical predictions only do so much especially with player chemistry and development.

                
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tense2
Post ID: 407444by tense2 » Oct 13, 2013 - 08:21 PM PST
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The illusion of validity is why I get deeply suspicious whenever a fan, sportswriter, coach, or GM says anything to the effect of "the numbers don't tell the whole story". This is, in fact, true, but what the person saying this usually means is "I don't care what the numbers say because I am convinced that what I have seen is correct." Which is, thanks to this illusion, almost never true. If I make an argument that the data says a player isn't good, and someone points out "Yes, but if you watch the games you will notice that this year they are only shooting threes from the slot, and rarely from the corner, where he used to excel," then that person is pointing out a hole in the data that's worth investigating. If the argument is along the lines of "anyone who's watching him can clearly see he's much better than that," then I'm certain the illusion of validity is doing its dirty work.

Moral of the story: you can't trust yourself. And if you find yourself saying, "I know, but this time I'm sure!" then you really can't trust yourself. http://wagesofwins.com/2012/01/13/i-know-what-the-stats-say-but-the-il lusion-of-validity-in-basketball-fandom/

                
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Agent0
Post Subject: RE: Jamal Crawford Would Like to Start, Also Unhappy? Post ID: 407459by Agent0 » Oct 13, 2013 - 11:08 PM PST
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I think we have more in depth statistical analysis than simple box score watching, but how an you know the "why" of production without watching games or at least getting a scouting report. We can see the final result, but how we got there and what things contributed to that are also important in judging and making a final decision on the "how good" of a player or value to team, etc.

Obviously if everything objective contradicts what you believe you see (just too much to track in a game with just watching on TV) it's a bit weird to just say well all the objective stuff is wrong and my personal interpretation of what is happening is correct.

Not sure how this relates to Jamal right now, but that's my $0.02

                
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Silasie
Post Subject: RE: Jamal Crawford Would Like to Start, Also Unhappy? Post ID: 407476by Silasie » Oct 14, 2013 - 06:47 AM PST
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This Jamal thread has turned into Stats vs Eye test thread (or something like that), does that mean Jamal is now happy Wink

                
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toohipcliptoslip
Post ID: 407477by toohipcliptoslip » Oct 14, 2013 - 08:34 AM PST
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Is it the illusion of validity or the validity of illusion. Both have their place, right next to the absinthe

                
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Silasie
Post ID: 407478by Silasie » Oct 14, 2013 - 09:33 AM PST
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I like to think I am a fairly intelligent guy but you have lost me on that one!

                
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clipperboy24
Post ID: 407479by clipperboy24 » Oct 14, 2013 - 09:39 AM PST
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So after all that are you able to say stats are perfect predictors and address things like how well a player helps a specific team and how well the chemistry works together?

To bring it back to the point, Jamal and his ISo might not fit as well on this team when everyone else is going to play more team ball.

Also do stats cover boxing out, player movement on the floor, screens, etc etc? Usually not.

                
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Silasie
9 Post ID: 407481by Silasie » Oct 14, 2013 - 10:15 AM PST
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Oh I see now that it was in reference to a tense2 post. I get it now. The only problem is I am now quoting myself.

                
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tense2
Post ID: 407483by tense2 » Oct 14, 2013 - 10:42 AM PST
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Your "enlightenment" on any discussion is always appreciated Toohip whether topped off with a screw top, cork or lighter.

                
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tense2
Post ID: 407484by tense2 » Oct 14, 2013 - 10:59 AM PST
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Dont't think he's saying that at all: The illusion of validity is why I get deeply suspicious whenever a fan, sportswriter, coach, or GM says anything to the effect of "the numbers don't tell the whole story". This is, in fact, true, but what the person saying this usually means is "I don't care what the numbers say because I am convinced that what I have seen is correct."

Suggest you read the whole article and maybe go to the FAQ link at the top of the page and see what data gets included in their model...if your at all interested. http://wagesofwins.com/2012/01/13/i-know-what-the-stats-say-but-the-il lusion-of-validity-in-basketball-fandom/

                
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clipperboy24
Post ID: 407486by clipperboy24 » Oct 14, 2013 - 11:50 AM PST
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I did t read the article, will do that later. My point is still that stats only have so much predictive value and that's what this argument was about: predictive fit. Dudley over reddick, crawford vs reddick or another player etc. and stats can't predict what will happen with total certainty but the % chance that x occurs. That's all I am saying. I like stats but just because the stats say someone should play or x should occur its still a % estimated correct decision not a guarantee. And there are times where you can visibly see this is or isn't working even if stats say this would not be the case.

                
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tense2
Post ID: 407488by tense2 » Oct 14, 2013 - 12:11 PM PST
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If that's what you believe in, fine. All is good, so continue on with your player evaluation system.

P.S. It's all about probabilities...there are no guarantees in life except one, lol.

                
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clipperboy24
Post ID: 407489by clipperboy24 » Oct 14, 2013 - 12:49 PM PST
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Its not about what i believe but reality.

Exactly it's all probabilities and often (myself included) many will talk about probability as reality but its not always the case. Only certainty is to look back and see how it turned out, even then can question what could have of should have been

                
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tense2
Post ID: 407490by tense2 » Oct 14, 2013 - 12:55 PM PST
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And some models/systems are better at producing those "probabilities" then others and that's a "reality".

                
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pageC4
Post Subject: RE: Jamal Crawford Would Like to Start, Also Unhappy? Post ID: 407502by pageC4 » Oct 14, 2013 - 03:29 PM PST
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@tense2. What is it you do for a living? Are you a statistician by chance? Do you work for any basketball organization or publication? And if so what is your title? Just curious as to your affinity for stats, not meant to be patronizing or confrontational

                
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tense2
Post ID: 407512by tense2 » Oct 14, 2013 - 04:43 PM PST
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I was in commercial construction before I retired. I've always been open to new ways to tell a story....and the art of probabilities that's all.

                
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pageC4
Post ID: 407515by pageC4 » Oct 14, 2013 - 05:30 PM PST
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I thought for sure you may have been employed in the sports industry in some capacity.

                
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xldicelx
Post Subject: RE: Jamal Crawford Would Like to Start, Also Unhappy? Post ID: 407619by xldicelx » Oct 15, 2013 - 10:51 AM PST
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i know it seems jcross wants to start but am I the only one that notices him ball hogging to score and the rest of the team gets out of sync? Its like they know "give the ball to crawford, give the ball to crawford"

                
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Voyeur
Post ID: 407620by Voyeur » Oct 15, 2013 - 11:01 AM PST
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That's been his game. Sometimes it's needed. It was needed for us last year. But sometimes it's not. Doc is not really looking for that so there's the rub. It does look like Jamal is trying to play more controlled. But more and more I can't help to wonder if a trade for some inside presence is advantageous. There's no doubt Jamal is a fantastic player and pulled our butts out of the fire at times last year, but if last night proved anything, it's that we're strong at guard, weak at the frontcourt. With Green picking up his game, it may be a sacrifice worth making.

                
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xldicelx
Post ID: 407624by xldicelx » Oct 15, 2013 - 11:48 AM PST
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I agree... but remember what happened last year when he was off (more often then he was on) the bench fell apart. once he started passing and playing more like a PG then the bench started producing.

either way clips shoudn't be looking at trades unless it's an unbelievable deal for JCross... we should ride the whole season with this roster. Adding better bigs will diff help but I think Jcross and the rest of the bench can some how pull something out of thin air and make it happen to cover for the lack at the front court (not saying DJ Mullens and Hollins are junk) just saying

                
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uncool
Post Subject: RE: Jamal Crawford Would Like to Start, Also Unhappy? Post ID: 407630by uncool » Oct 15, 2013 - 12:36 PM PST
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I want to just see the bench chemistry for the first half of the season, and at allstar break, if our frontcourt depth is an issue & Jamal isn't fitting in, I'd like to see us trade him for Spencer Hawes. He'd give Philly fans some highlight plays, sell more tickets for them, and we can see more of Willie & Bullock at the 2 & have a rebounder/defender on our bench.

                
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fullcourt
Post ID: 407636by fullcourt » Oct 15, 2013 - 12:51 PM PST
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who was he hogging the ball from? Who gout out of sync? What players on offense got out of sync?

Jamal hogged the ball from Mullens? who? Have you ever sat sideline at a game? You think Doc is sitting there allowing Jamal to to just do whatever he wants .

If you watch the game its easy to see the distinction between the caliber of players.

Darren and Jamal are basically nba starters coming off our bench and they got better the longer they played. Some of the other guys simply could not handle the minutes and their play deteriorated the longer they played and the execution got poorer and poorer. Its a reason they don't play major minutes no matter what team they have played on.

                
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xldicelx
Post ID: 407652by xldicelx » Oct 15, 2013 - 02:49 PM PST
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I was not speaking about yesterdays game. and directing "have you ever sat sideline" is very annoying.....

I see what I see you don't like tough....

Yes i know NBA stars when I see them and yes he deserves to have the ball when the bench is not playing good.... my observation was simply this (in other words my opinion) the bench gets out of sync when Jamal is trying to go off but doesn't.. that's it....

to everyone else, I hope Jamal proves and really wants to be a clipper no matter where on the bench he plays.

                
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fullcourt
Post ID: 407656by fullcourt » Oct 15, 2013 - 03:20 PM PST
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ballhogging means he is not sharing the ball which is why I asked what I asked and last years bench was a pretty close unit so I was asking who else should have gotten the ball.

The entire 2nd unit offense last year was based off jamals ability to create his own shot and their ability to force turnovers and push the rock.

That Is why I asked what I asked because jamals role is to try and go off. His role as 6th man is exactly that and when he comes in and is not aggressive and doesn't try and go off it actually throws everything out of sync. I Have read things where both Barnes and VDN said as much its what the teams expects in other words his role.

I thought last year that our bench was a very unselfish unit and when someone had it going whether it was Barnes,Crawford or Bledsoe and even Hollins or Odom that that unit made a real effort to get whoever it was the ball.

The reason I asked had you ever sat near the sideline or bench during a game even more so last year is because when Jamal got the ball the bench is screaming for him to attack depending upon the matchup. Its what his role was.

I wasn't denying you opinion just trying to get more clarification of what you meant because saying he was a ballhog who put the offense out of sync yet the new coach comes in and says he wants him to do the same thing seemed kinda odd to me that is all.

                
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toohipcliptoslip
Post ID: 407659by toohipcliptoslip » Oct 15, 2013 - 04:51 PM PST
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Where were you when Kennedy was shot?

                
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tense2
Post ID: 407718by tense2 » Oct 15, 2013 - 09:57 PM PST
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LOL, Attending high school in Dodge City...yep, you read it right, Dodge City. Sad

                
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toohipcliptoslip
Post ID: 407782by toohipcliptoslip » Oct 16, 2013 - 04:42 AM PST
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Study hall High school Indianapolis

Was I hallucinating or did Jamal have a Cadillac commercial. Somebody who looked like him did.

Anyway we now see how much our Bigs suck. It would be a good trade to get a decent one or we're screwed. Maybe we could trade Willie but I'd rather trade Jamal. If he did have a comml he's going nowhere.

                
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toohipcliptoslip
Post ID: 407784by toohipcliptoslip » Oct 16, 2013 - 05:07 AM PST
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The PHX game shows that our front court bench lacks something. What they lack is ability to play basketball. They will lose games. Hollins looks like a goose trying to take flight. Amundsen's hair gives the team a bit of style but that's it. Mullens is a shooter and that's all. How many fouls? There is zero rebounding. We will die on the boards. If we could pick up Gooden we'd be in better shape. Even Wilcox. Greene and Jamal could give different looks and Willie isn't streaky.

                
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06clippersfan
Post Subject: RE: Jamal Crawford Would Like to Start, Also Unhappy? Post ID: 407804by 06clippersfan » Oct 16, 2013 - 03:00 PM PST
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On the postgame video of last nights game, on clippers website, they interviewed DJ and Crawford interrupted the interview and called DJ the defensive player of the year. JC looks a little bit happier. I think he is starting to buy into the system that they have in place.

I still prefer that they trade him though. Green is just a better fit for the system doc wants to run

                
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itsLuigi
Post Subject: RE: Jamal Crawford Would Like to Start, Also Unhappy? Post ID: 407805by itsLuigi » Oct 16, 2013 - 03:52 PM PST
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if they trade crawford who would it be for? if they do trade him it better be a team that isn't making the playoffs. its scary thinking of Jamal on another team.

                
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tense2
Post ID: 407808by tense2 » Oct 16, 2013 - 04:01 PM PST
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Don't know now, but when the dead line pops up more choices will become available IMO. Again no hurry now unless a good deal drops in our lap.

                
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toohipcliptoslip
Post ID: 407829by toohipcliptoslip » Oct 16, 2013 - 08:33 PM PST
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Also during the game I heard Ralph say "Good defense by Crawford"!!!, Willie is doing well coming off screens but we have yet to see if Jamal can.

Lack of true bigs on the bench who can rebound will hurt us more than Jamal's absence. As above we can't do it now.

Somebody mentioned free agents. Amundsen is gone. What do we do with Wayans' contract? Is he guaranteed? Can we get Gooden or Wilcox? Both are good fits. We're set. Does Wilcox have a heart problem? Is Gooden overseas? Is Hollins guaranteed?. One of the Collins twins played here and stunk it up big time.

                
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Voyeur
Post Subject: RE: Jamal Crawford Would Like to Start, Also Unhappy? Post ID: 407869by Voyeur » Oct 17, 2013 - 05:39 PM PST
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Hmmm...looks like Doc may have decided to let Jamal be Jamal:

http://www.nba.com/clippers/news/clippe ... be-himself

                
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CapsNClips
Post Subject: RE: Jamal Crawford Would Like to Start, Also Unhappy? Post ID: 407872by CapsNClips » Oct 17, 2013 - 05:46 PM PST
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^ Man I love Doc, this entire paragraph made me feel great about who's leading us this season.

                
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Silasie
Post Subject: RE: Jamal Crawford Would Like to Start, Also Unhappy? Post ID: 407873by Silasie » Oct 17, 2013 - 06:13 PM PST
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^

Wow.

Maybe Jamal has been really worried about fitting in and if he can be himself in the team with VDN gone and thus the weird tweets. If that is the case then after that communication from Doc he must be really relieved.

It sounds like Doc really knows about man management, how to handle stars with big egos. He's already done great things with DJ.

                
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Clippersfan86
Post Subject: RE: Jamal Crawford Would Like to Start, Also Unhappy? Post ID: 407876by Clippersfan86 » Oct 17, 2013 - 08:49 PM PST
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Doc is the king of this franchise now. Not CP3, not Blake. I want this guy to be remembered as a Clippers coach/GM, not the Celtics coach. Not trying to get ahead of myself but rather saying this is the kind of leader and man we need. This is our Popovich who we need to keep with the organization a good 20 years.

                
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WinningBasket
Post Subject: RE: Jamal Crawford Would Like to Start, Also Unhappy? Post ID: 407886by WinningBasket » Oct 17, 2013 - 09:54 PM PST
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Doc sure knows how to motivate. Good for Jamal for trying to fit into the system. I think he'll be just great as usual when all is said and done. Talks of trading him is really premature. He's an asset to the team and Doc knows that.

                
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pageC4
Post ID: 407887by pageC4 » Oct 17, 2013 - 10:04 PM PST
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That's the big difference with a top tier coach like Doc, Popovich, and PJ. They know how to motivate players either with negative or positive reinforcement. I have a gut feeling that we won't be going on any long losing stretches or fourth quarter melt downs.

                
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clipperboy24
Post ID: 407909by clipperboy24 » Oct 18, 2013 - 01:04 PM PST
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Did we waive Amundsen?

                
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Silasie
Post ID: 407911by Silasie » Oct 18, 2013 - 01:29 PM PST
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I have to say from what I have seen of Doc so far I am loving having a good head coach. He seems to be so much more in control than VDN.

And that also stops CP from running the team too much. I don't think he actually wanted to, but probably felt he had to and now he can relax into a more appropriate role knowing his team is in safe hands.

                
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CapsNClips
Post Subject: RE: Jamal Crawford Would Like to Start, Also Unhappy? Post ID: 408448by CapsNClips » Oct 22, 2013 - 10:50 AM PST
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Doc Rivers, ladies and gentleman.

                
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Clippersfan86
Post Subject: RE: Jamal Crawford Would Like to Start, Also Unhappy? Post ID: 408456by Clippersfan86 » Oct 22, 2013 - 11:35 AM PST
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Doc has calmed another storm. The man is a mastermind. The more time goes on, the more trust I'll have to where I stop bitching forever and giving you guys headaches. See I'm used to Vinny/Billups/Butler ball where I'm ready to go off at any moment Stephen A Smith style. We will win or lose with Doc and my support will be there.

                
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tense2
Post ID: 408460by tense2 » Oct 22, 2013 - 12:32 PM PST
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Please remember this when things go wrong sometimes during the long season...which they will. wink

                
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Clippersfan86
Post Subject: RE: Jamal Crawford Would Like to Start, Also Unhappy? Post ID: 408461by Clippersfan86 » Oct 22, 2013 - 12:34 PM PST
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Haha just refer me back to here for a reminder and it may prevent my Stephen A Smith moments.

                
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