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clipperAndrew
Post Subject: LA Clippers 2013-14 Roster Analysis (Insider Request) Post ID: 405741by clipperAndrew » Sep 20, 2013 - 06:27 PM PST
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clipperAndrew
Post Subject: RE: LA Clippers: 2013-2014 (Insider Request) Post ID: 405745by clipperAndrew » Sep 21, 2013 - 10:51 AM PST
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Post Subject: RE: LA Clippers: 2013-2014 (Insider Request) Post ID: 405747by Clippersfan86 » Sep 21, 2013 - 12:06 PM PST
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Somebody will eventually. Nobody was online last night it seems.

                
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Post Subject: RE: LA Clippers: 2013-2014 (Insider Request) Post ID: 405750by tense2 » Sep 21, 2013 - 03:38 PM PST
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CHRIS PAUL, PG Pelton's 2013-14 Projections PPG RPG APG WIN % WARP Player card 16.6 4.0 8.9 .717 16.6

Scouting report + The NBA's premier point guard, a title he's held throughout his career when healthy. + More comfortable running the pick-and-roll in half court than playing up-tempo. + Tough defender with quick hands. Annually one of the NBA's leaders in steal rate.

Analysis As compared to Dwight Howard's saga, Paul's free agency played out relatively quietly. It was only an issue to the extent that Paul used his opportunity to go elsewhere as leverage to build the Clippers to his liking. The 2013 All-Star MVP was instrumental in the signings of Matt Barnes and Jamal Crawford in the summer of 2012, then in angling for Doc Rivers as head coach this past offseason. Vinny Del Negro also blamed Paul for his demise, a notion that is exaggerated -- Del Negro was perhaps a game away from losing his job in 2011-12, after all -- but not entirely unfair to the extent that Paul probably could have saved Del Negro by speaking up on his behalf. Grantland's Bill Simmons has relayed tension between the Clippers' young starters -- Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan -- and Paul. On the court, they're not exactly an ideal match; Griffin and Jordan are best in transition, whereas Paul likes to slow things down and control the game in half-court sets. The Clippers slowed their pace after Paul's arrival, though they played a bit faster last season. Of course, Paul's mastery of the pick-and-roll creates plenty of easy opportunities for all his teammates, particularly 3-point shooters; only Raymond Felton assisted on more 3s per game, per Hoopdata.com. Eric Bledsoe's development allowed Del Negro to cut Paul's minutes to 33.4 per game, a career low. Bledsoe is now in Phoenix, but his replacement, Darren Collison, can also handle extended minutes, which is helpful given Paul's past knee issues. Rivers will be tempted to keep Paul on the court as much as possible because he is such an intelligent player. Paul is always looking for an edge and is one of the league's best at handling two-for-one situations at the end of quarters and games.

J.J. REDICK, SG Pelton's 2013-14 Projections PPG RPG APG WIN % WARP Player card 13.0 2.4 3.1 .481 3.3

Scouting report + Deadeye shooter who's a threat to shoot a jumper, drive or dish, catching the ball off screens. + Creative ball handler who can share playmaking duties as needed. + Has become a capable defender after entering the league as a complete defensive liability.

Analysis Milwaukee dealt for Redick, an impending free agent, before the trade deadline in exchange for forward Tobias Harris, hoping that Redick would upgrade its roster for the stretch run. But he never quite fit and saw limited action in a first-round sweep at the hands of the eventual champion Miami Heat. By that point, Redick claimed he and interim coach Jim Boylan weren't speaking. But even after Boylan was let go, the well was poisoned to the point where Redick never seriously considering returning. He had plenty of other suitors before agreeing to a sign-and-trade with the Clippers, who offered him a four-year, $27.8 million deal and a chance at a full-time starting gig -- the first of his career -- on a championship contender. Though he's still thought of as the high-scoring, cocky Duke star, Redick has long since shed the one-dimensional tag he brought to the NBA. That Redick could shoot a career-worst 36.6 percent from 3-point range and still average better than 30 minutes a night is testament to his newfound versatility. Redick is an excellent ball handler for an off-guard and could run the offense if the Clippers want to run Chris Paul off screens from time to time. Redick has also worked hard to make himself into a capable team defender; he still gives up size at times in one-on-one matchups but is fundamentally sound. Last year's slump aside, Redick remains an excellent 3-point shooter. The Magic also loved using him coming off pindown screens because of his ability to react to the defense by taking a jumper, driving or passing back to the screener for a baseline jumper. Expect Doc Rivers to utilize Redick in a similar way to Ray Allen in Boston.

JARED DUDLEY, SF Pelton's 2013-14 Projections PPG RPG APG WIN % WARP Player card 10.3 3.5 2.5 .305 4.0

Scouting report + Reliable 3-point shooter whose percentage should benefit from playing with Chris Paul. + Non-athlete who rarely plays above the rim. + Hardworking, gritty defender who can have trouble with elite athletes.

Analysis As a consummate role player, Dudley was out of place on last season's lottery-bound Phoenix Suns. This summer's trade to L.A. puts Dudley where he belongs: playing next to stars he can complement. An undersized power forward at Boston College, Dudley has completely remade his game in the NBA, developing into a 3-and-D wing whose strength is his ability to shoot the ball. Expect Dudley to thrive on the steady stream of open shots from playing with Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. Defensively, Dudley's past life playing in the paint serves him well against physical wings. He tends to have a more difficult time with athletic perimeter players who can beat him off the dribble. Dudley's poor athleticism was something of a running joke in Phoenix, where the Jared Dudley Dunk-o-Meter tracked his progress toward his goal of 17 dunks last season (he finished with 10, per Basketball-Reference.com). Dudley could stand to revisit his roots as a rebounder, too. Last season saw him slip below average for a shooting guard on the glass, and the Clippers will need him to help out since he's playing next to non-rebounder J.J. Redick.

BLAKE GRIFFIN, PF Pelton's 2013-14 Projections PPG RPG APG WIN % WARP Player card 19.0 9.5 3.7 .628 11.6

Scouting report + Incredible athlete whose development into a well-rounded player has gone largely unnoticed. + Excellent passer for a big man. Footwork in the post remains a work in progress. + Defensive liability who has a tough time guarding one-on-one and lacks help instincts.

Analysis Since we're bombarded with images of Griffin dunking and pitching cars, it's easy to overlook his actual contributions on the basketball court. At the age of 24, Griffin made the All-NBA second team for the second consecutive season, establishing him as one of the league's 10 best players. He finished 15th in the league in wins above replacement player (WARP) with 11.2, but the difference between him and 10th place (Marc Gasol, 11.4) was essentially meaningless. Although it might not be as fast as his critics want, Griffin's game is developing. He has improved his post-up game, adding an occasional Dirk Nowitzki-esque fadeaway, and ranked fifth in the NBA in post scoring, per Synergy Sports. Griffin is especially dangerous as a low-post passer, having improved his assist rate dramatically last season. Pau Gasol was the only full-time big man who handed out assists more frequently. The only real quibble left with Griffin's offense is his outside shooting. His free throw percentage, while improved, remains subpar for a go-to scorer, and he attempted 3.4 shots per game from 16-to-23 feet despite making them at just a 34.0 percent clip, per Hoopdata.com. Now, Griffin must improve at the defensive end. For all his athletic gifts, he's never been much of a shot-blocker, in part because he's rarely in the right position as a help defender. Griffin did get better on D last season -- part of the reason the Clippers started the season so well defensively -- but he can also be beaten one-on-one in the post.

DeANDRE JORDAN, C Pelton's 2013-14 Projections PPG RPG APG WIN % WARP Player card 7.9 7.5 0.4 .527 4.7

Scouting report + Highlight-reel finisher who is not an offensive threat beyond five feet from the basket. + Terrible free throw shooter who is difficult to play late because of "Hack-a-DeAndre." + Has improved his defensive awareness, but less effective than his block totals indicate.

Analysis For the second consecutive season, DeAndre Jordan started every game for the Clippers. He made incremental progress, but the team's improvement around him has made Jordan the biggest liability in the starting lineup, hence the talk this summer of the Clippers swapping Jordan for Kevin Garnett in an effort to win now. The biggest problem Jordan presents is the difficulty with playing him late in games. After making a career-high 52.5 percent of his free throws in 2010-11, he slumped to 38.6 percent, making intentionally fouling him a profitable strategy. Among players with at least 800 career free throw attempts, Jordan's 42.4 percent mark is second-worst, trailing only Ben Wallace (41.4 percent). Even when he's not at the charity stripe, Jordan's complete inability to shoot is an issue. He made just three shots all season beyond 10 feet, per Basketball-Reference.com, topping out at 12 feet. As a result, Jordan must be in or near the paint at all times, clogging things up. The Clippers would live with those weaknesses if Jordan emerged as a dominant defender. They've been much better defensively with him on the floor, and Jordan has made strides in his awareness and avoiding fouls. But he's still more of a B-defender than an A who can anchor an elite defense. If the arrival of Doc Rivers doesn't produce that kind of defensive leap for Jordan at age 25, it's probably never coming.

RESERVES

JAMAL CRAWFORD, SG Pelton's 2013-14 Projections PPG RPG APG WIN % WARP Player card 13.0 1.7 2.6 .453 1.8

Scouting report + Premier streak shooter. Capable of winning a game by himself or shooting team out of it. + Originally drafted as a point guard but has been far less effective when running an offense. + One-dimensional contributor who must be hidden on D. Among the NBA's worst rebounders.

Analysis Crawford's 2012-13 season was a testament to the power of perception. In terms of advanced statistics, Crawford was basically the same player he's always been (with the exception of his career 2009-10 campaign, which won him the Sixth Man Award). But Crawford had some big nights on national TV as the Clippers started hot, and suddenly he was a legitimate All-Star candidate in some circles. While that didn't come to pass, Crawford finished second in Sixth Man voting despite finishing third in WARP (4.0) on his own bench behind Matt Barnes (6.3) and Eric Bledsoe (5.0). When he's on, there are few scorers more dangerous than Crawford, who excels at pulling up off the dribble after one of his trademark crossovers. Though he's still prone to the occasional drought (five times last season he attempted at least 10 shots and made no more than two of them), he's improved his shot selection to the point of being average in terms of offensive efficiency. The Clippers got good mileage out of Crawford in fourth quarters, when he would run the offense early and provide a second perimeter option after Chris Paul returned to the game. He ranked fifth in the NBA in fourth-quarter scoring (6.5 PPG) behind Kyrie Irving and the NBA's three leading scorers (Carmelo Anthony, Kobe Bryant and Kevin Durant). With the Clippers upgrading the wings, Crawford will now have to battle J.J. Redick and Jared Dudley for spots in the closing lineup. Unlike them, Crawford must be hidden defensively on a non-scorer. His lanky frame isn't ideally suited to defending bigger players. Crawford is also a horrible rebounder; among regulars, only Randy Foye (3.3 percent) had a lower rebound rate last season.

MATT BARNES, SF Pelton's 2013-14 Projections PPG RPG APG WIN % WARP Player card 8.9 4.8 1.7 .535 4.9

Scouting report + Well-traveled role player put together a career year off the bench for Clippers. + Gritty defender who loves physical play and can occasionally cross the line. + Dangerous scorer in transition who is increasingly reliant on 3-pointers in the half court.

Analysis At age 33, Matt Barnes finally got his first lucrative, long-term contract, signing with the Clippers for $10.2 million over three years after playing last season for the veteran's minimum. Barnes earned the raise with a great season off the bench. While Jamal Crawford got the Sixth Man Award hype, Barnes rated as the most valuable member of the Clippers' standout second unit with 6.3 WARP. Signing Barnes to a multiyear contract in his mid-30s presents a risk, especially because he is dependent on his athleticism. But if he plays anything like last season, his salary will be a bargain. The final year of the deal is also guaranteed for just $1 million, per Sham Sports, limiting the downside. So far, there's no sign of slippage in Barnes' defensive stats. While his rebound rate was down last season, he blocked shots and came up with steals more frequently than ever before. Depending on the matchup, Barnes can be deployed as a perimeter stopper capable of getting into opponents or a dangerous help defender. Either way, his long arms are valuable at the defensive end. Offensively, Barnes excels at running the wings in transition, so the Clippers' up-tempo second unit was ideal for him. Once set in the half court, Barnes is now primarily a spot-up threat. He attempted nearly half of his shots from 3-point range last season, his highest rate since 2008-09, and managed to hit them at a good enough clip to be effective. If his percentage slips to the low 30s, as it did in 2009-10 and 2010-11, the 3s might become an issue -- especially because Barnes is such an effective finisher.

DARREN COLLISON, PG Pelton's 2013-14 Projections PPG RPG APG WIN % WARP Player card 5.8 1.4 2.6 .473 1.5

Scouting report + Still looking to recapture the promise he showed as a rookie backing up Chris Paul. + Arguably NBA's fastest player with the ball. Struggles to create good looks in half court. + Poor defender whose lack of size makes him a liability against bigger point guards.

Analysis Collison would love to just forget the 2012-13 season ever happened. A trade from Indiana to Dallas over the summer gave him the opportunity to seize a starting job, but Collison could never win Rick Carlisle's trust and ended up playing behind D-League call-up Mike James. While Collison rated better statistically than he did with the Pacers, each season removed from his terrific rookie performance in 2009-10 tends to hurt his value. Finding little interest in free agency, the UCLA product decided to come home to Los Angeles on a bargain two-year, $3.8 million deal. If he plays well, Collison will opt out and look for a bigger contract next summer. Signing with the Clippers puts Collison back in the role in which he initially thrived in New Orleans -- backing up Chris Paul. The pairing is a good one, because Collison is best playing pick-and-roll basketball, something he got to do more frequently with the Mavericks. When he plays in space, Collison's superior speed allows him to get where he wants, and according to Synergy Sports, he created more of his plays in transition than any other player in the league. Collison has more difficulty when the floor closes down, and is only average as a spot-up shooter. Despite his size, Collison is a good finisher who made 67 percent of his shots around the rim, according to Hoopdata.com. Collison's small frame is more of an issue defensively, where he can get bullied by bigger point guards. Dallas gave up 4.2 more points per 100 possessions with Collison on the floor, a big reason his minutes were limited. Playing against backup point guards mitigates Collison's defensive issues and should make him more useful.

ANTAWN JAMISON, F Pelton's 2013-14 Projections PPG RPG APG WIN % WARP Player card 9.1 4.1 0.9 .442 1.0

Scouting report + Has increasingly become a 3-point specialist as a stretch 4 despite average accuracy. + Still a savvy scorer around the basket off the pick-and-roll. + Major defensive liability. Weak as both an individual and team defender.

Analysis Playing for the veteran's minimum, Jamison demonstrated last season with the Lakers that he can still contribute offensively. To get that production, however, the Lakers had to pay a heavy penalty at the other end of the floor. Such is the Jamison tradeoff, which the Clippers will experience after signing him to a one-year minimum contract in August. After a disastrous short stint as a backup small forward under Mike Brown, Jamison was moved by Mike D'Antoni back to power forward, where he'll play with the Clippers. There, Jamison's shooting range is an asset. While he shoots just an average percentage from 3-point range (last season's 36.1 percent mark was his best since 2006-07), teams have to honor him, opening things up for his teammates. The Lakers also got a lot of use out of Jamison as a pick-and-roll man. He excelled at slipping the pick and remains an accurate shooter in space, especially when using just one hand. The Lakers were best when they paired Jamison with Dwight Howard, who could make up for his defensive limitations. The Lakers allowed 100.4 points per 100 possessions with both players on the floor, per NBA.com/Stats, but Jamison's defensive rating ballooned to 108.6 -- equivalent to the Sacramento Kings' 29th-ranked defense -- as soon as Howard hit the bench. Jamison struggles to defend one-on-one; opponents made 56.3 percent of their shots against him on isolation plays, according to Synergy Sports. He's also too small to provide much resistance as a help defender when he is in the right place. Paired with Ryan Hollins, that will be an issue.

RYAN HOLLINS, C Pelton's 2013-14 Projections PPG RPG APG WIN % WARP Player card 3.8 3.0 0.3 .316 -2.4

Scouting report + Skinny, athletic 7-footer who excels at finishing at the rim. + Terrible rebounder for his size. Allergic to boxing out opponents. + Lack of strength an issue defensively. Not as good a shot-blocker as size, athleticism imply.

Analysis Hollins has now carved an eight-year NBA career out of looking the part of a backup center. An excellent athlete for a 7-footer, he can play above the rim at both ends of the floor. That rarely translates into positive results besides finishing lobs with dunks, yet Vinny Del Negro frequently played Hollins over the more effective Ronny Turiaf last season and the Clippers decided to bring him back as their primary backup center. The biggest disconnect between Hollins' frame and his production is on the glass. Among 7-footers with at least 3,000 career minutes played, Hollins ranks ahead of just two players on the glass (Brad Sellers and Andrea Bargnani). He's too skinny to keep opponents off the glass, and doesn't compensate for it by boxing out. Hollins is also a surprisingly poor shot-blocker given his physical gifts; last year's improved block rate was only slightly better than average for a center. Offensively, Hollins does fit well in Lob City. According to Basketball-Reference.com, 45 of his 70 field goals last season were dunks, and he narrowly edged out JaVale McGee and teammate DeAndre Jordan for the highest percentage of field goals via dunk, per Basketball-Reference.com (minimum 50 FGM). 2012-13 Highest Dunk Percentage Player Team FGM Dunk Dunk% Ryan Hollins Clippers 70 45 .586 JaVale McGee Nuggets 303 175 .578 DeAndre Jordan Clippers 314 179 .570 Kenyon Martin Knicks 31 56 .554 Tyson Chandler Knicks 140 255 .549

BYRON MULLENS, PF Pelton's 2013-14 Projections PPG RPG APG WIN % WARP Player card 6.2 3.6 0.7 .412 0.0

Scouting report + Aggressive offensive player whose results have never justified his frequent shot attempts. + Attempted to become a stretch 4 last season with poor results. + Weak defender with limited instincts and little ability to match up with physical opponents.

Analysis Looking to extract some value from Byron Mullens, the Charlotte Bobcats sent him to 3-point school in the summer of 2012. Mullens fired up 23 3-pointers in five games in the 2012 NBA Summer League, but it was only a preview of what was to come during the regular season. After taking only 51 3-pointers the previous season, Mullens attempted 208 in 2012-13 in slightly fewer total shots. Unfortunately, he made them at just a 31.7 percent clip, and his true shooting percentage actually dropped slightly. The Bobcats decided to give up on the project and did not tender Mullens a qualifying offer, making him an unrestricted free agent. Looking for a stretch big to complement their dunkers, the Clippers signed him to a two-year deal at the minimum. It's easy to see what they were thinking -- Mullens' combination of size and ability to stretch the floor is relatively rare. However, neither skill has really translated into any value. A key part of the problem is Mullens simply shoots too much, inside or outside the arc. Even on a team as bad as Charlotte, there's no justification for him using plays at an above-average rate, and he'll have to temper his shooting this season. One plus to his improved outside shooting: Mullens used his long arms to draw repeated fouls using rip-through moves against unsuspecting big men defending on the perimeter. Mullens was more of the problem than he was the solution for the Bobcats on defense, where he's slow-footed for a power forward and too weak a help defender as a center. Squinting hard for a positive, Mullens was a strong defensive rebounder last season.

REGGIE BULLOCK, SG Pelton's 2013-14 Projections PPG RPG APG WIN % WARP Player card 1.5 0.7 0.3 .428 0.1

Scouting report + Big wing who can really shoot. + Has the size and athleticism to emerge as 3-and-D player but not the mindset (yet). + Will have a tough time cracking the Clippers' rotation as a rookie.

Analysis After spending two years in the shadow of fellow 2010 recruit Harrison Barnes, Bullock took on a leading role for last year's North Carolina Tar Heels. Thanks to 42.9 percent shooting from beyond the arc, Bullock was actually more efficient, too; the only major conference player with both a higher offensive rating and usage rate than Bullock, per KenPom.com, was Iowa State's Tyrus McGee. The Clippers took Bullock with the 25th pick, then buried him in the rotation by re-signing Matt Barnes and trading for Jared Dudley and J.J. Redick. This year's Clippers have little time for rookies, but eventually Bullock looks like a useful reserve. We know Bullock can shoot. His career arc will be determined by how much else he adds to his game. Bullock has defensive potential and the size to match up at either wing spot, but he's never really committed himself to shutting down opponents. Doc Rivers will surely encourage a defensive mindset. Bullock's steal and block numbers were relatively low given his athleticism, which is why a specialist like Anthony Morrow leads his player comps. Gradually, Bullock showed a bit more ability to create his own shot in college, getting to the rim more frequently with the benefit of fewer assists, per Hoop-Math.com. However, his efficiency tends to drop quickly the more he's asked to do.

WILLIE GREEN, SG Pelton's 2013-14 Projections PPG RPG APG WIN % WARP Player card 0.9 0.3 0.1 .388 -0.1

Scouting report + Effective in a starting role last season because of his spot-up shooting ability. + Has curbed poor shot selection that made him a liability early in his career. + Unlikely to see regular minutes this year after Clippers upgraded wing positions.

Analysis In addition to Jamal Crawford, the Clippers' stable of reformed gunners also included Willie Green. With Chauncey Billups in and out of the lineup as he came back from Achilles surgery, Green started 60 games, during which the Clippers went 40-20. Because the team's second unit was so good, Green went from starter to third-string when Billups got healthy, and the team's summer acquisitions have pushed him to sixth in the wing rotation this season. Early in his career in Philadelphia, Green was one of the league's most inefficient scorers. Four times in his first five seasons, Green posted true shooting percentages worse than 50 percent while using at least 23 percent of the 76ers' plays. At some point, Green found religion and cut the pullup jumpers out of his game. His usage rate has been higher than league average just once in the last five years, and last year's mark was a career low. With the Clippers, Green was content to serve as a spot-up shooter, and he knocked down 42.8 percent of his 3-pointers. Despite the accurate shooting, Green was little more than a fill-in because he brings virtually no other value. He's undersized defensively for a 2-guard, an issue only somewhat offset by his strong frame.

MAALIK WAYNS, PG Pelton's 2013-14 Projections PPG RPG APG WIN % WARP Player card 0.0 0.0 0.0 .391 --

Scouting report + Quick point guard who is at his best in the open court. + Has a difficult time finishing against larger defenders at the rim. + Doesn't look to make plays for teammates.

Analysis After leaving Villanova early, Wayns went undrafted but was able to stay in Philadelphia with the 76ers. Twenty-one games with a PER of 1.8 was enough for the Sixers, who waived Wayns before his contract became guaranteed. He briefly went to the D-League, then latched on with the Clippers in March. He enters camp with the third point guard-role as his to lose. A score-first point guard in college, Wayns has yet to demonstrate the ability to excel as a playmaker. He handed out just 4.9 assists per game in the D-League. Calling his own number worked for Wayns at the NCAA level; he found the going much more difficult against NBA defenders and made just 55.2 percent of his shot attempts at the rim, per Hoopdata.com. To succeed, Wayns is going to have to develop an in-between game after not making a single shot from 3-to-15 feet in his limited action last season. One positive sign: Wayns shot 38.2 percent from 3-point range in the D-League, albeit on just 34 attempts.

                
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Heediot
Post Subject: RE: LA Clippers 2013-14 Roster Analysis (Insider Request) Post ID: 405833by Heediot » Sep 24, 2013 - 04:56 AM PST
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I think Blake scores 21 PPG or up this year. He has finally had an off-season to work on his game. I expect this year to be the year he makes the leap.

                
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