JJ Redick Is Special For Us (P. 5)

Clippers TopBuzz Forum/Message Board » Clippers News & General Discussions
Post new topic   Reply to topic
Author Search This Topic:
 
itsLuigi
Clipper Starter
 Avatar
Posts: 485

us.gif
votes: 1

vince carter would be perfect on our team

Agent0
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 4024
votes: 37

This actually is most likely just a product of him coming off the bench and playing less minutes than others.

If you look at FGA for every 36 minutes on the floor, Jamal leads the team at 17.2. Blake is second at 15.8. Blake draws more FTA though, so let's assume he gets no and1's and all the FTA's are from a FGA where he was fouled, then he's shooting 15.8 FGA + 7.7 FTA/2 = 19.7 FGA. Jamal shoots 17.2 FGA + 4.1 FTA/2 = 19.3 FGA, so basically he's a co-leader in FGA. Of course that isn't entirely accurate as Blake for his career has drawn about 1 AND1 per game, meaning it would be 6.7 FTA and put him at 19.2. Jamal draws about 3 every 10 games, so 0.3. So his would actually be 3.8 FTA and put him at 19.1 FGA.

So it isn't inaccurate for people to watch and conclude that Jamal is taking a pretty significant chunk of the shot attempts while he is on the floor this season. He's basically at the same rate as Blake this season. The end of game FGA wouldn't truly represent that always since he was playing off the bench for a lot of the season. In his games as a starter, Jamal has led the team in FGA in 6/14 games, tied once, so that's a pretty good chunk and would explain why people think that.

With that said, I think we understand what kind of player Jamal is and it shouldn't be some sort of surprise that he attempts a lot of shots. I can agree that his shooting rate probably shouldn't be so high this season. He's at a career high in FGA/minute, which probably shouldn't be happening. He should probably be at the 15 FGA/36 range while he's at 17.2 up from 16.4 the past two seasons.

I also agree with you about the fact that there are different talents, and it is about balance. Jamal could probably (okay, he can) use offensive sets better to allow better shots for the team and still get his own. But he's 34 and has played a certain way for what is now his 14th season, this isn't the time to be asking for drastic change, but he should select better.

Last season he had an Ortg of 109, mainly due to the fact that he was about 4 pts better in TS%. This season he's looking more like Portland Jamal production wise.

Random pattern wise though, it actually sort of works if you look at his last 5 seasons:

57.3 TS% / 114 Ortg

54.5 TS% / 104 Ortg

50.6 TS% / 102 Ortg

55.8 TS% / 109 Ortg

51.8 TS% / 102 Ortg

He had the two years where he was a good offensive player production wise, the obvious bad year in Portland. A very mediocre second year in ATL (though he was nice in the playoffs), and again this year another poor offensive production season (that is outside of just looking at how many points a guy is scoring). Maybe he's doing a good regular season offensive year every three years kinda thing, so next year will be mediocre to poor, but the year after that, watch out Wink (I'm kidding btw). More realistically though, he hasn't specifically had any great consistency from year to year in offensive / field shooting production, and that is probably somewhat due to the fact that he said he doesn't drill himself in the off-season (except for before last season) and his off-season work is based on pick up play. This is in contrast to a guy like Ray Allen who has had a TS% >.555 and an Ortg > 110 every year since 98-99...but he is drill master, so consistency is more likely, especially as you get older.

He might pick it up, he might not, I don't know, there are many factors (age could be one now), but his value has never been in just creating, cause Byron Mullens technically can also "create", but creating bad offense doesn't do much for a good team. His value has been when he creates and produce above average to good offense (eg: last season). When he isn't doing that, then the value obviously diminishes quickly.

The other thing I agree with is that yes, we can't just say "this player shoots a high percentage, so he should get more shots", I think everyone kind of understands that. A guy like Dudley would be significantly worse for a team if he tried to do more than he is capable of because he would then be taking extra shots (his open shots / ones in his ability plus extra ones he shouldn't be taking) and making them at a terrible rate. It would be like wasting possessions because any extra shot creator who isn't really good at it is just taking away possessions from better shot creators like a CP or Blake.

This is also why there is a limit to the value of shot creation. The guy has to be able to do it better than at least 2/5 of the other players on the floor unless he's just a guy that doesn't understand his limitations. Jamal can do that on most teams.

Of course further now it is relative to the team, is a guy taking shots away from better creators or from an offense that can produce better than his production. Can this guy create more effectively than the offense can without him? Can the defensive pressure he commands and shots he creates improve the offense enough despite his individual maybe poor or just mediocre offense and balance it to be decent? That of course is going into more details and harder to quantify. Some guys can't, some can. The worst offense in the league (Milwaukee - go O.J. Mayo and Knight) puts up 0.985 pts/possession. Of course if you put up lower than that then one has to start questioning how good you actually are at creating as a primary option.

Of course the perfect storm is the guys whose individual production is elite AND they draw defenses, command pressure, etc, and those guys are our superstars.

CP3Heliflopter
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 5986
votes: 10

^Didn't Jamal said that last season was the first season he really practiced? His practice consisted of pickup games basically before that.

Clippersfan86
CTB MVP Champion
Posts: 15189
votes: 89

Guy who made this thread is really smart!

Agent0
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 4024
votes: 37

Yea he did, it probably does affect how consistent he can be from season to season to some extent as well as the fact that he has switched teams a bit. Practice mainly is about attaining consistency (not necessarily game to game, everyone has ups and downs, but long term) which has seemingly never been a strong quite for Jamal.

I mean one could only imagine what he would be if he drilled himself like a Redick does. Redick wouldn't have survived in the league playing pick up games though, but they are different skilled players. Jamal could have been a pretty interesting player though if he did more of that drill stuff.

Akclipps
Clipper Starter
Posts: 419
votes: 6

Jj is cute #nohomo lol

Silasie
Clipper All-Star
Posts: 1976

uk.gif
votes: 2

After last night I think we can all agree that he is "Special for us".

Amazing how he came back from injury like he's never been out.

clipperharry
Clipper 6th Man
Posts: 152
votes: 0

I believe he is the X factor for this season !! Watch this road trip jj will be our X factor for a successful road trip !!

CP3Best
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 4916
votes: 12

JJ made us win yesterday. When he made that step through 3 I was like: WOWOWOWOWOWOW! Did he just make that??? I decided that I was gonna be satisfied no matter who won, and thank goodness DJ nice work man! Stepping to the line making it, and stealing it to WIn IT!

ClipperSam
Clipper All-Star
Posts: 2382
votes: 14

JJ is special

CP3Best
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 4916
votes: 12

JJ is an All Star

jarca
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 7963

rp.gif
votes: 35

It's weird that JJ is t even on the top 20 on 3 points percentage

Voyeur
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 5129
votes: 29

Okay, so we all know I'm a JJ fan! But we shouldn't go crazy here. Ain't like he can do this every game. We saw last road trip he was on, some games he was great (he and BG had very good moments at Orlando and Houston), and some not so great. The life of a shooter. He'll have his ups and downs. However, his energy, off-ball movements and high BB IQ should help the team even if his shot isn't falling. My hope is someone else picks up their shooting when that happens.

I love what JJ brings to this team!

Agent0
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 4024
votes: 37

No one on the Clippers is over 40%, but J.J. Just passed Dudley as the team leader in 3PT%.

Voyeur
CTB MVP X2
 Avatar
Posts: 5129
votes: 29

JJ must be pinching himself, when you think about it.

Despite all the praise SVG heaped on JJ, he refused to allow Redick to start unless injury necessitated it. Yet he also refused to allow JJ to be traded when requested. Redick admitted to himself that he would never become a "star" in the NBA (like he was at Duke when he could score 40 on any given night), so he checked his ego at the door and embraced the idea of being a role player.

He finally gets traded but it's off the bench again, backing up Monta Ellis in Milwaukee. He vowed afterward he would never come off the bench in a cold weather state again. If he was coming off any bench it would be in a warm weather state...and if he goes to another cold weather state, he wanted assurances that he would be a starter. He told Rick Adelman as much when interviewed for a spot on the T Wolves.

Low and behold he gets a call from Doc Rivers. Who wants him to play on a championship contender! Who wants him to play in sunny L.A.!! Who wants him to actually START!!! Oh, and for the first time since joining the pros, he gets to wear his old Duke jersey #4!!!!

He's got to be a happy guy right now, I'd say!

ohMEohMy!
CTB MVP X1
 Avatar
Age: 29
Posts: 3695

rp.gif
votes: 32

Here's a nice breakdown of JJ's last game, and the type of system we run to get him open. Yeah, JJ is indeed special, but so is Doc's coaching, and the other player's ability to execute the game plan.

Voyeur
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 5129
votes: 29

^ Only time I've never tolerated Coach Nick. H was so impressed with Redick, he forgot to throw in a catty dig at Blake. Oh well, next time.

Clippers_FTW
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 4497

us.gif
votes: 10

#coachesporn lol that was funny

CP3Best
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 4916
votes: 12

How is it that we come back from 17 down to win without CP3 in the final 5 minutes of the Dallas game, and nba.com talks about the incompetence of the houston rockets?

Voyeur
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 5129
votes: 29

I must admit, I don't always understand the numbers, but apparently JJ is 2nd in the league in offensive rating.

http://stats.nba.com/leaguePlayerGenera ... tOrder=DES

pageC4
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 4510

us.gif
votes: 22

impressive, but it shouldn't surprise us especially after the Dallas game

Clippersfan86
CTB MVP Champion
Posts: 15189
votes: 89

If 12-14 point games are average games for him, awesome. If Dudley did the same consistently, we'd be finals bound.

Silasie
Clipper All-Star
Posts: 1976

uk.gif
votes: 2

I reckon it is realistic to expect that from JJ but Dudley is a much bigger stretch by far.

Agent0
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 4024
votes: 37

Ortg can be a team stat or an individual player stat.

Team: pts scored by the team per 100 possessions Player: pts produced by the player per 100 possessions

Technically it is per possession, but to avoid the decimals and give cleaner numbers, they multiply by 100 and use per 100 possessions. You can measure a players individual Ortg based on their statistical production (pts, all percentages, assists, turnovers, offensive rebounds). You can examine an approximation of a players offensive impact by looking at the teams Ortg when the player is on the floor.

The one on NBA.com actually does the latter, teams Ortg with the player on the floor. Basketball-reference for example can give you the former. If a player is scoring/assisting a good chunk and has a great individual Ortg, pretty obviously he should also have some positive impact on the teams Ortg. So this looks at the Clippers as a teams offensive rating when J.J. is on the floor. This season, when J.J. has been on the floor, the teams offense has been insanely good based on NBA.com tracking. Only Manu Ginobili has produced a higher Ortg for his teams offense than Redick while on the floor.

In terms of individual Ortg, J.J. is still well up there at 122 Ortg, and it makes sense. Redick has a TS% of 61.4%. He turns the ball over only 0.9 times in 28 minutes while dishing out 2.2 assists. It's like he never turns it over really (1.1 tov/36, 6.2% TOV). So yea, he's kinda been nice to have on the floor for the offense. The team is also 15-5 with Redick (.750), pace for 62 wins, but we also have to take a 20 game sample with a grain of salt. Still, what we can say is that he exerts a very good impact on the teams offense and at the least a pretty good impact on winning overall.


To give an example and some hope. Dudley for example has a career 116 individual Ortg. He produces 116 pts/100 possessions which is excellent for a role player like him. This season he is at 106 pts/100 possessions. So he's producing 10 less pts/100 possessions than his normal.

Now, we have to consider that there is "noise" in Ortg, you can't make exact direct comparisons all the time because of external factors (watch games, understand a bit about the teams system, see the how and why's), but it has implications, and if you can adjust for those factors, you are fine.

Dudley's Ortg is partly down because he has a career low ORB% of 2.2%. That is due to Doc's system that tells players to get back and neglect offensive rebounds. If he had played for Doc his whole career, his career Ortg would be lower because he wouldn't offensive rebound as much, maybe like 112 instead of 116, still great and well above average, but relatively lower. His career ORB% is 5.9% for comparison. Offensive rebounds have a positive effect on Ortg because they extend a possession and give another chance to score. Less offensive rebounds means a lower Ortg for a team and individual.

In January Dudley has had a 60.4 TS% (season: 55.4%) and a 110 Ortg (season: 106). So looking forward if we can get that efficiency from the role player, high production from Redick, continuous beast mode from Griffin, then add Chris Paul who is always a league leader in individual Ortg and positive effect on team Ortg back, this teams offense projects to be even more potent, and remember this team is already 4th in the league in Ortg.

Voyeur
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 5129
votes: 29

I've been analyzing JJ's numbers. It's kinda weird that his 36.6% 3-point shooting is among the worst of his career...however his 45.9% overall shooting is his best and he's averaging more points per game than ever. I have a feeling his 3 pointers will get going as the season progresses.

His rebounding and assists are among his best. Never known to be much of a ball thief, JJ has picked up his steals and is .9 per game. Not great, obviously, but his next highest number of steals per game was .6 a year ago.

I think what I like even better is he goes to the FT line 3.5 times a game, which is also the most of his career.

It's true that, like most shooters, he has some cold games. However, he's become a better and better player over the years.

CP3Best
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 4916
votes: 12

What I notice is that his 3s are hard shots. He runs around and then shoots on the move or off a really big hop. I'm surprised he's shooting this well. And looking at his 3s yesterday, WOW, he made 3/5 contested ones.

Clipperjan
Clipper 6th Man
Posts: 200
votes: 0

JJ Reddick will not play Wednesday according to Doc Rivers. Rivers wants him to rest until after the All Star game.

http://www.nba.com/clippers/news/redick ... star-break

Voyeur
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 5129
votes: 29

Doc seems to take extra care of Redick for whatever reason. Knows he needs Redick's legs when it matters most, I suppose.

dukenilnil
Clipper Rookie
Posts: 54
votes: 0

Heck, Crawford is playing well right now so why not take advantage of the extra rest. As someone who already doesn't have overwhelming athleticism, I imagine JJs health has more an impact on his game than someone who relies less on great technique on more on raw athleticism. No sense having him banged up down the stretch, might as well take advantage of the ASB. My only concern is that he hasn't had much time all season with Paul and guard chemistry takes a while to perfect. There was an article a while back talking about how Paul/Redick were making the right plays together but the timing was often just a split second slower than you'd like, resulting in some more difficult shots for JJ or having to pass on what otherwise could have been an open shot. The timing on curls, screens, etc takes a while to get just right. Its a huge credit to Paul (especially) and Redick that they looked as good together as they did without a ton of playing time to get timing just right. Hopefully there is enough time together before the playoffs to fine tune it.

Clipperjan
Clipper 6th Man
Posts: 200
votes: 0

Brad Turner ‏@BA_Turner 30m

JJ Redick out Tuesday again with sore right hip. Willie Green questionable with sore right hip.

Madelyn Burke ‏@MadelynBurke 52m

Doc Rivers "I'm pretty sure JJ (Redick) is out... At least until the Memphis game"

Looks like we will not have JJ again Sad

ClippersDA
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 3475
votes: 11

I'm getting really tired of his injuries -

I know it's not intentional and he would rather play, but I feel like he has missed most of the season.

Dunkathon
Clipper All-Star
Posts: 1055
votes: 7

What the heck is with all these injuries? Shouldn't the all star break have helped take care of any injury issues when it came to Redick and Green? Don't tell me both of them were trying to work out or something instead of resting during the break...

Voyeur
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 5129
votes: 29

What the heck, man? He shoulda' gone to the doctor last week. I get that everyone thought rest was needed, but how did they not have him see a doctor just in case? Somebody dropped the ball and I don't think it was just JJ.

clipper*joe
CTB MVP Champion
Posts: 15838
Location: los angeles
calif.gif
votes: 125

Like I said, with all the injuries, he's Billups 2.0.

Voyeur
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 5129
votes: 29

Nah, he's younger than Chauncey and doesn't have a history of injuries. Plus, when he's heathly he actually contributes. I just think it's bad luck more than anything else. I think we can all agree the hand thing was a fluke incident. These other injuries may be due to him trying a little too hard for Doc instead of pacing himself. Or, as Mike Smith said, the back spasm could happen to anybody, and by playing through the spasm, that may have sparked the other injury.

JJ's last couple of injuries needed a real medic instead of our coaching staff saying, let's just rest him.

Laak
Clipper Starter
Posts: 375
votes: 1

As long as JJ's 100% for the playoffs, he can take all the time he wants.

tense2
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 8769
votes: 20

He saw a Doctor on Monday (today), but the results would be in until Tuesday. Obviously, this injury is more serious then first though. Hope it doesn't get more serious. Ugh.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/sportsnow ... z2tdCmE3MK

Icecoldclipper
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 9425
votes: 20

How do you not come out of the all star break healthy when you had no major injuries? Hopefully he only misses one game but it sucks we are going to need everyone against the Spurs and Memphis. If this keeps up I fear Crawford will be hit with injuries from the minutes load.

ClippersDA
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 3475
votes: 11

I imagine it is worse than reported - no reason why he shouldn't dress tomorrow in a major game otherwise. Such bs

Clippersfan86
CTB MVP Champion
Posts: 15189
votes: 89

JJ is our D Wade. Super valuable to the team but always injured. He was a possibility for Portland and now will miss 10 extra days for a bruise? Lol WTF?

Voyeur
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 5129
votes: 29

The only reason he was possible for Portland is because he saw a doctor way too late if you ask me. Doc and the coaching staff were using the eye test diagnosis.

CP3Heliflopter
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 5986
votes: 10

Redick out again? Are you f***** serious?! Man he missed two ultra critical tough games. Sucks. Honestly him being out so much this season has costs us quite a few wins.

clippyclip
Clipper Starter
Posts: 377
votes: 6

@ramonashelburne: Clips' J.J. Redick will be out next 3-5 weeks w/assortment of injuries, sources tell ESPN. Expected back for playoffs

Man, that sucks. Hopefully something good goes down before Thursday because with less shooting we need better defense more than ever before.

ClippersDA
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 3475
votes: 11

I'm so sick of it at this point that Bledsoe trade looks worse by the day.

Dunkathon
Clipper All-Star
Posts: 1055
votes: 7

You know Bledsoe is currently out as well, right? Really, everyone in the Bledsoe trade seems cursed at this point with injuries.

I'm really getting tired of people complaining about the Bledsoe trade. It is what it is now, and there's nothing nobody can do about it.

cleepers
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 8725

us.gif
votes: 107

Some people still aren't even over missing Paul George in the draft or the Kyrie Irving "trade". Don't hold your breath waiting for them to shut up about Bledsoe. Yellow_Flash_Colorz_PDT_18

JQuick32
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 3029
votes: 9

Not to mention, would you rather have lost Bledsoe for nothing? At least JJ is productive and fills a need when he plays.

clipper321
Clipper All-Star
Posts: 1386
Location: California
calif.gif
votes: 10

UGH...Paul George. Don't even compare Paul George and the JJ Reddick/Bledsoe swap lol.

The feels javascript:emoticon('cry')

ClippersDA
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 3475
votes: 11

Any word on jj at all? I just have a bad feeling. It's always worse than they project.

ClipperKyle32
CTB MVP X1
 Avatar
Posts: 3084
votes: 26

Quote:
Jared Dudley and J.J. Redick were supposed to fortify the Clippers' starting wing positions, but for different reasons, it hasn't worked.

Dudley is having the worst season of his career, and Matt Barnes has replaced him in the starting lineup. The Clippers are 26-8 (.765) when Barnes starts and 28-14 (.666) when Dudley starts. It seems that problem has been solved.

What about shooting guard? Redick has started all 30 games he's played this season, but he's missed the Clippers' last 25 with a bulging disc in his back. In the meantime, Los Angeles has found success with Jamal Crawford or Darren Collison in his place.

It appears Redick won't get Wally Pipped, though.

Arash Markazi of ESPNLosAngeles.com:

Rivers said there was a "75 percent" chance Redick would return Thursday and multiple team sources said the plan was for Redick to start against Dallas.

Really, the Clippers can probably do no wrong. With Chris Paul, Matt Barnes, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan locked in, Los Angeles has thrived with any of the three options at shooting guard.

With Collison (274 minutes):

Offensive rating: 115.6

Defensive rating: 102.1

Net rating: +13.5

With Crawford (265 minutes):

Offensive rating: 118.4

Defensive rating: 97.1

Net rating: 21.3

With Redick (23 minutes):

Offensive rating: 114.9

Defensive rating: 93.8

Net rating: +21.1

It seems starting Redick is the best call. He's the most effective 3-point shooter of the bunch, and Crawford's and Collison's creating skills go better with the second unit or at least when one of Paul or Griffin sits.

As long as Redick returns soon, the Clippers will have a little time before the playoffs to test the lineup.

Reddick affects this team in so many ways. Our defensive numbers with Reddick on the floor are amazing. Reddick is scrappy... like Chris. A scrappy backcourt in the playoffs. Watch Out.

Go To the Top of the ThreadGo Home

or Comment Using FB

Post new topic   Reply to topic


← Think You Know Blake Griffin Well? Take the Quiz!

→ Full Court Press Playoffs Presale Email

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum

register
You are an anonymous user- Register now!


Follow our Los Angeles Clippers RSS Feed, plus the Clippers Rumors RSS Feed, the LA Clippers News RSS feed, and the Clippers Forum RSS feed to get the newest updated Clippers News and Trade Rumors plus Clippers Game update in your RSS/XML reader!