Jared Dudley Performance Discussion Thread

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chonkyfire24
Clipper 6th Man
Posts: 117
 

The problem is dudley IMO. The guy is a complete liability on defense.

Jamal is playing fine.

DocHollywood
Posts: 327
Location: Honolulu

So, you didn't watch the game against Miami huh? Dudley covered Lebron really well to where TNT commentators were actually mentioning it. And this is with a knee injury. Jamal sure couldn't cover Lebron healthy or not. Be patient in casting one of our ELITE shooters aside. Wait until he's healed up before you begin thinking he's a problem.

chonkyfire24
Clipper 6th Man
Posts: 117

yeah i did watch the game, and i watched dudley get consistently burned by james. In fact, James scored mainly when dudley was guarding him. I don't give a **** if he's an elite shooter, the clippers don't need another elite shooter. They need a lock down perimeter defender, and that is not what dudley is.

Agent0
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 4195
^Dudley actually did a pretty decent job, I mean we're talking about Lebron James here Sometimes he is and sometimes he isn't....honestly, it's really been a weird mix of players. I think Doc is just feeling everything out. Something Redick said I thought was interesting was that he and Dudley were still trying to figure out where there shots are going to come from (granted jj has been a little off recently...I'm sure it will even out as the year goes on)
Injuries have messed with the rotations, but I don't think I've seen any significant amount of....

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DocHollywood
Posts: 327
Location: Honolulu

Wow, simmer down. Maybe you should burn one Chonkyfire while you watch the game one more time. James scored most of his only 18 points against Willie Green. Is Barnes not a good enough perimeter defender for you now?

chonkyfire24
Clipper 6th Man
Posts: 117

no barnes is fine and i garuantee you dudley will not be apart of the play off rotation.

He must be really banged up because the advanced metrics say he is having a stunningly bad year. 115 defensive rating with -.1 defensive win shares... but hey at least he's shooting 39% from 3 and the clippers are winning, oh wait they are .500.

DocHollywood
Posts: 327
Location: Honolulu

Nobody is disputing that Dudley doesn't look like himself right now. He was much better in the Phoenix games I watched last year, probably because he was healthy. I'm saying wait until he is healthy before labeling him a bad player. Assuming he does regain his form, he will definitely be in our playoff rotation. Barnes has played terribly so far this season, but he was hurt so we give him a pass since we all know he can play. The same should apply for Dudley after eight years in the league.

chonkyfire24
Clipper 6th Man
Posts: 117

he wasn't that good last year, he pretty mediocre when i watched him. It's not like the suns were good last year or anything... I wasnt crazy about the trade when it happened because he isn't an upgrade over butler. Afflalo was the guy to try and flip bledsoe for but I'm not sure that deal was ever really on the table.

If dudley's tendinitis is the reason for his poor defense thus far, then maybe he should take a few games off. I'd rather at least give bullock a look and see if there is anything there than have a 60% dudley playing.

Matt barnes being hurt is really hurting the clippers at the moment.. hopefully he is well soon.

edit: dudley has played six seasons, not eight.

DocHollywood
Posts: 327
Location: Honolulu

I agree that having Barnes out has caused real problems for our SF rotation. Doc said the other day that he would sit Dudley if he could, implying that he doesn't have close to enough confidence in Reggie unfortunately.

For half as much money as Caron, Dudley is younger, a better passer, and a better shooter. I loved that trade.

tense2
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 8856

Dudley numbers (advanced and basic) we're as good if not better then Afflalo's and one of the most important numbers was his contract which is a better bang for the buck.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... mp;y2=2014

Dudley is definitely a upgrade (again as the numbers show) from Butler.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... mp;y2=2013

http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/players/co ... eason=2012

Agent0
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 4195

Dudley was very good last season for a role player, especially in modeling how to still play the right way on a bad team.

chonkyfire24
Clipper 6th Man
Posts: 117

Agent0 wrote:
Dudley was very good last season for a role player, especially in modeling how to still play the right way on a bad team.

he has a nice offensive game, but if you are going to be objective and give him a grade on both sides of the ball, the reality is that he's a subpar defender. He consistently gets beat by players that are more athletic than him. I recognize his ability to score the ball, but the clippers need a lock down perimeter defender than can shoot 3's. This is why when the playoffs come dudley will eventually be weened out of the rotation IMO.

DocHollywood wrote:
I know what you mean. It seems like Jamal and Darren are just too similar to be on the floor at the same time. Neither plays effective defense either, so we're reliant on Mullens to try (and fail) to stop penetration into the paint.

jamal isn't a good defensive player, you're correct. But you have to at least admit that he's giving a lot more effort on defense vs last year. It's honestly a night and day difference.

Agent0
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 4195

His defense is above average mainly because your impact as a defender isn't only your man to man defense in isolation. Nick Young is a good example of a guy who is actually very decent in man to man isolation defense but is a bad overall defender.

Of course Dudley would only be weaned out of the rotation if we had this theoretical 3/lock down D guy to replace him, but you know...

chonkyfire24
Clipper 6th Man
Posts: 117

Did you watch the game tonight? At what point in the game did you get the impression that dudley is an "above average defender"? I watched Parsons literally having his way with him every time they were on the floor together.

dudley is slow and a below average rebounder. He's also technically undersized because he's only 6'6 with an average wing span.

CP3Heliflopter
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 6008

He isn't healthy. If you watched him on the Suns he was a competent defender but right now he is playing hurt. He has to because Barnes is injured. He wasn't even supposed to play during the Heat game and Bullock played really poorly in the minutes he played.

tense2
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 8856

He doesn't get it. Sad

chonkyfire24
Clipper 6th Man
Posts: 117

yeah he has tendinitis, i get it, but I don't understand why that's an excuse tbh with you.

CP3Heliflopter
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 6008

How isn't it an excuse? He is so banged up he shouldn't even be playing atm but he has to play since the only other option is a rookie who hasn't played well at all.

Why are you taking a 7 game sample size when a player is banged up and ignoring his entire career? That is like saying BG is an average player since he played poorly against the Griz in the playoffs since he was banged up.

tense2
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 8856

If you ever played BB with tendinitis in the knee you would.

chonkyfire24
Clipper 6th Man
Posts: 117

Because it's tendintis? It's minor injury.

tense2
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 8856

Depending on how bad the tendinitis is, lol.

chonkyfire24
Clipper 6th Man
Posts: 117

CP3Heliflopter wrote:

Why are you taking a 7 game sample size when a player is banged up and ignoring his entire career? That is like saying BG is an average player since he played poorly against the Griz in the playoffs since he was banged up.

I am accounting for his entire career. He's never been a good defender.

tense2 wrote:
Depending on how bad the tendinitis is, lol.

What % of the NFL do you suppose is going to play tomorrow with tendinitis and multiple other injuries? 50%? Sorry, but it's not an excuse.

CP3Heliflopter
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 6008

Based on what exactly?

tense2
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 8856

Apparently for you it isn't. Again, ever play competitive BB (HS/College) with tendinitis in one or both knees??

chonkyfire24
Clipper 6th Man
Posts: 117

CP3Heliflopter wrote:
Based on what exactly?

an average of 1.15 defensive win shares per year and and average 110 defensive rating over his career. That's below average.

tense2 wrote:
Apparently for you it isn't. Again, ever play competitive BB (HS/College) with tendinitis in one or both knees??

i played basketball in high school with osgood schlatter's and played football/baseball with tendintis in my elbow on multiple occasions.

tense2
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 8856

Not for a wing player it isn't.

tense2
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 8856

On your throwing elbow? How bad was the injures?

Agent0
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 4195

One good thing about the NFL is that they have 1 game a week and they have a lot of breaks between plays. That is why despite it being a more physical sport, it is just more palatable to play with certain injuries.

I can play football much more comfortably with certain injuries than I can basketball. I can't tell you the exact physics of it, but the continuous motion in basketball is just irritating to certain injuries.

I have actually had tendinitis (they say we should really call it tendinosis) in my knee and played with it for over a year and it was a really bad decision as it is an ailment that requires rest. I would get sharp pains when planting that technically I could play through, but it ruined my jumpshooting consistency and affected my explosiveness.

CP3Heliflopter
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 6008

Defensive winshares and defensive rating are not good stats in a vacuum.

Unless you want to argue that Boozer and Amare Stoudemire are good defenders. Lots of wing defenders who are considered great defenders have a high defensive rating like Payton or defensive specialists like Bowen.

chonkyfire24
Clipper 6th Man
Posts: 117

bruce bowen averaged a 102 defensive rating, much better than dudley's career average.

Agent0
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 4195

Defensive rating is actually team dependent, so you can't really look at defensive rating across teams and compare players. Offensive rating is your own offense, but defensive rating is based on your team.

A horrible defender on a great defensive team will have a lower defensive rating than a good defender on a bad defensive team. Dudley played for Suns teams that were poor defensively, so his defensive rating should be high.

Bowen is already an elite defender, but he also played for great Spurs defensive teams and good defensive Miami teams. You can't compare DRTG like that just so you know.

You can compare a players defensive rating to his teams, and how he differs from the team.

tense2
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 8856

Bowen was an elite defender, not average.

chonkyfire24
Clipper 6th Man
Posts: 117

Agent0 wrote:
Defensive rating is actually team dependent, so you can't really look at defensive rating across teams and compare players. Offensive rating is your own offense, but defensive rating is based on your team.

A horrible defender on a great defensive team will have a lower defensive rating than a good defender on a bad defensive team. Dudley played for Suns teams that were poor defensively, so his defensive rating should be high.

Bowen is already an elite defender, but he also played for great Spurs defensive teams and good defensive Miami teams. You can't compare DRTG like that just so you know.

You can compare a players defensive rating to his teams, and how he differs from the team.

he was 14th in the suns in defensive rating last season. Yup, good defender alright. 14th on the worst team in the west.

tense2 wrote:
Bowen was an elite defender, not average.

i never said he was average, i said dudley is below average.

CP3Heliflopter
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 6008

What is important isn't defensive rating. Its defensive rating relative to the team's defensive rating that he was playing on. His defensive rating was often a few points higher than the Spurs defensive rating. Does that make him a below average defender? No.

Dudley has played on poor defensive teams his entire career of course his defensive rating is high.

CP3Heliflopter
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 6008

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2008.html

Bowen was 19th. Guess he was a scrub on D and careerwise Bowen was usually on the bottom end of his team in terms of defensive rating.

Its not a great stat by itself.

chonkyfire24
Clipper 6th Man
Posts: 117

Have you ever thought that maybe his team's were poor defensively because he's a poor defender himself?

tense2
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 8856

Dudley is an average defender.

Agent0
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 4195

Yea, that isn't impressive, but I don't know if you kind of follow the interpretation of the stat.

What we'll see is that for example a teams primary defender on the oppositions best player might have a worse defensive rating because they are generally in the game when the best opposition offensive players are.

The other thing we'll consider is who the player is playing with as your defensive rating will be worse for example if you play a lot with the teams worst defenders.

Defensive RAPM is probably a much better stat to analyze defense than DRTG as DRTG doesn't tell a story, just a final result.

If we look at Dudley's on/off last season, it is a bit contrary to his DRTG.

On: opponents 105.8 Ortg

Off: opponents 111.5 Ortg

Opponents scored MUCH better when he was on the bench and the Suns actually looked like a decent defensive team according to those numbers when he was on.

This pattern was the same in 09-10, 10-11, and 11-12, so a pattern over a couple of seasons obviously is a good thing. The Suns defense was consistently better with Dudley on the court for 4 seasons based on the on/off numbers of the opponents offense.

CP3Heliflopter
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 6008

Yes Dudley is the primary reason why the Suns were a bad defensive team. lol

You are reaching. Like I said defensive rating isn't a good stat unless you want to tell me Bowen was a poor defender and Amare and Boozer are good defenders.

CP3Heliflopter
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Posts: 6008

Thank you I was too lazy to look up the stats myself.

The fact of the matter is there isn't a defensive metric that is completely 100% accurate. You have to use a mixture of eye test and other defensive metrics.

Agent0
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 4195

Here is Dudley's defensive RAPM

12/13: 0.1

11/12: -0.1

10/11: -0.1

09/10: 0.2

So what his Drtg on/off might have suggested is that he was playing with the better defenders on the team. Now we look at RAPM and we see a guy hovering right around 0 for 4 straight seasons, and that is basically the exact definition of an average defender.

tense2
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 8856

^Ouch. That's pretty convincing I think...at least for some. wink

CP3Heliflopter
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 6008

I consider him above average since he often took the tough defensive assignments on the Suns and I don't believe rapm takes that into consideration.

chonkyfire24
Clipper 6th Man
Posts: 117

CP3Heliflopter wrote:
Yes Dudley is the primary reason why the Suns were a bad defensive team. lol

You are reaching. Like I said defensive rating isn't a good stat unless you want to tell me Bowen was a poor defender and Amare and Boozer are good defenders.

it was definitely part of the reason. Just watch dudley exclusively on defense next game, or even just rewatch the game from tonight. He's not a good defender, i'm sorry, and blaming the fact he played for the worst team in the west last season is a poor excuse, because that only reinforces the fact that he is a poor defender.

Agent0 wrote:

Defensive RAPM is probably a much better stat to analyze defense than DRTG as DRTG doesn't tell a story, just a final result.

If we look at Dudley's on/off last season, it is a bit contrary to his DRTG.

On: opponents 105.8 Ortg

Off: opponents 111.5 Ortg

.

and who was he guarding last season for the suns? That number is just as arbitrary as defensive rating because if dudley gets to guard shane battier, and paul george has to guard lebron, dudley has a much easier assignment.

chonkyfire24
Clipper 6th Man
Posts: 117

when he was guarding lebron on thursday, lebron was driving past him with ease. That's why blake started defending lebron, because dudley was incapable of doing it.

CP3Heliflopter
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 6008

^

1) He is injured.

2) You clearly haven't watched Dudley if you think he guards scrub players. He often had to take the hardest defensive assignments on the Suns.

3) Yep its really really obvious you didn't watch Dudley play much outside of his 7 Clippers games.... I am done with this. You way too stubborn to admit that Dudley is at least an average defender. Of course he would have a hard time against Lebron with tendinitis. It would be hard to guard him if he was healthy.

chonkyfire24
Clipper 6th Man
Posts: 117

  1. he has tendinitis, it's hardly an injury

  2. I've been watching him all season play below average defense.

Again, did you watch him tonight? He was awful. Oh wait, that's right, i forgot, his knees hurt so it doesn't count.

He's not an average defender. He's a below average defensive player with a very nice offensive game. Unfortunately that's not what the clippers need at this point in time.

tense2
CTB MVP X2
Posts: 8856

^Oy vey...and around and around and around we go, lol.

CP3Heliflopter
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Posts: 6008

You watched him for 7 games and you clearly know all there is to know about him. lol

Good night. You loss all of your credibility if you think a 7 game sample size means anything especially if the player is injured.

Last time I checked you never played ball on a pro level with tendinitis nor do you know how serious his tendinitis actually is. Don't compare rec ball to the nba please. I am not going to bother arguing with you anymore since you are already set on what you believe.

No matter what evidence we use contrary to your belief nothing will change. Just a pointless circular argument.

DocHollywood
Posts: 327
Location: Honolulu

Dudley is STILL PLAYING and he isn't making any EXCUSES for his play. He didn't even mention his tendonitis all this time. Doc did. You're incorrigible Chonkey.

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