Jared Dudley Performance Discussion Thread (P. 8)

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tense2
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Bottom line, nobody knows what kind of shape he's in, except for Jared. It's a guess game for everyone else.

jarca
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He plays 25 minutes and gets burn on the defensive game unless the guy he's guarding is posting him up. How winded can one get? Even fat lamar can play that time of game and not get winded

jarca
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And nobody knows how hurt he really is except Jared.

Last game- knee feels better

Last week where he posted 0 points and 1 rebound. Must be the knee!

tense2
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^Ah, I think he's dealing with an injury too in case you didn't know.

tense2
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Yeah he got that plasma blood treatment because he though it was cool, lol.

pageC4
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That's a big reason I never liked the use of those stats as well. some players don't get to average 36 minutes, foul trouble, fatigue, matchups..etc. Some players shrink in the fourth quarter while others don't. I look at players like Redick, who scores in the first but level out throughout the game, or players like Chris Paul who coasts through the first half offensively then like to heat up in the second half. When comparing players you can get a great evaluation of these patterns by watching their film. Such as what tendencies they have, when they like to score, what players can lock them down, ...etc.

And as you are I am especially dubious of PER 36, especially when one of the players involved in the comparison hasn't exactly reached a point where they can be on the court for that long.

DocHollywood
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LOL. roll

pageC4
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You do have to acknowledge that Jared has gone back and forth on the tendonitis. All sarcasm aside there is a fluctuation on his performance and how this affects his play drastically from one day to the next. The fluctuation with Dudley is incredible to say the least.

DocHollywood
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We all know exactly how hurt he is actually. Read yesterday's LA Times article. It's been referenced and linked to numerous times.

tense2
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Apparently it's worse then SOME people though.

DocHollywood
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Haha that's patently false. Every word of it.

jarca
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And Blake just got his elbow drained

jarca
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Yup. People need to watch the game and see how the player impact the games.

DocHollywood
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Actually, it's perfectly normal. Read the LA Times article from yesterday. Tendinitis is inflammation. It goes up and down. Agent0 mentioned his personal experience with tendinitis and said it was really bad some days and pretty good on others. Too much cynical conspiracy theory talk around here roll

jarca
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Ok Jared Dudley is a top notch defender who can keep a guy in front of him and also can play up to 36 mins. True right? Very Happy

pageC4
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Conspiracy theories, no just differing opinions on a players performance and how much of it is attributed to what circumstances

DocHollywood
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This is hilarious...no, he isn't Andre Igudala or Tony Allen. But to say he does nothing but get blown by is just lying. He held Lebron to five points dude. Check the play-by-play game log. Doc talks about how Dudley used to shut down Paul Pierce and how it never made sense to him until he realized what a smart defender Jared is. He has little ability to move laterally on his knee right now so "top notch" is hardly the term I would use for him at this juncture lol. Jared's knee being able to handle 36 minutes is a question I don't want answered, but cardiovascularly there's no reason to think he couldn't. Lamar was a big sweaty mess after three minutes last year. Jared is in exponentially better shape than Lamar was. I haven't seen Jared look winded once this season, have you? Speaking of which, if you were implying that even a fat Lamar is fine for playing 25-30 a night, why is Dudley's obviously superior fitness of concern to you?

Agent0
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I thought the issue we had was that you said things like "he looks fat and lazy" and "he is overweight". That is different from saying he could be in ever better shape, very different. One statement is saying you can get better, the other is saying you are bad.

Agent0
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I don't understand how you are combining two players to make up one players per minute production or advanced stats. Kevin Durant is you only option.

Do you mean like adding two 14/3/3 per 36 guys and that's 28/6/6 per 36? Only problem is that if you add their production, then you add the minutes, so that's 72 minutes, not 36. So their per 36 numbers still falls back down to 14/3/3.

Now, if you had two players who each put up 14/3/3 in 18 minutes (28/6/6 per 36), but could only play 18-20 MPG because of something that I don't know of, you do essentially have the equivalent of a 28/6/6 player in the combination of those two players. Problem is that doesn't happen. If you did, you would just tell them to work on their stamina and play one at each wing and then you have two superstars, lol.

Per 36 is really about rate of production, not about predicting what a guy will average in 36 minutes, though in terms of validity, per minute numbers have been shown to hold true for players with a good sample size of production.

If you look at a lot of guys who get MIP or are in the races. they are just players who got more minutes and maybe also a slightly bigger role, but they were already producing on a per minute basis.

    Derrick Favors Micheal Redd Ben Gordon Dragic.

We aren't talking about players who have some obvious deficiency in stamina or style that prevents them from maintaining their production. Also, some players, more minutes actually increase their production rate.


Casspi has no value to me, so adding him to a trade except for to balance contracts is meaningless. If you gave me Dudley and Koufus for he 70%+ assisted guy that Afflalo was the 3 seasons before, then he's, I'll take it if I need a big man.

Afflalo was behind Davis and Redick and then behind Tobias who became the go to guy after the trade for Orlando. Before this season, Afflalo had never shown success in being a shot creator, so this 22/5/5 version isn't indicative of his level of play, he's usually just a 3/D non creator. .


I measure value in this case by does this guy give my team as much as I'm paying him, and are his extra advantages over a cheaper player worth it. Lebron = yes. Deng = no.

If I have this team: Paul / blank / blank / Griffin / Jordan

If I have that base roster and my options are pay Deng $14M and fill the roster with minimum contracts, or spread that money and balance my roster, I'll choose the later.

I'll pay Trevor Ariza $7M to be my SF and pay two guys $3.5M each to be my other wing and backup big and I'll be confident my team would be more successful than Deng at SF plus minimum guys.

Deng should play less anyways. Deng isn't a good creator, he's a 3/4 option. He was still assisted 69% of the time without Rose and was behind Boozer and Robinson as an option last year.

In the playoffs, Deng has averages 14 PPG each of the last two seasons with <100 Ortg, that's his without Rose, he's better with. Is just his defense and rebounding worth $7M more than Trevor Ariza who can also defend and rebound, but in addition is a superior 3PT shooter? I don't think so, but others might.

clipperboy24
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So you agree he could be in better shape? That's exactly what I have been saying all along. I may have been a little extreme in calling him fat and lazy but I really think he looks and is overweight for an athlete who is trying to play at his best which includes being in his best shape.

He looks bigger than the last couple years more like he did pre Phoenix weight loss.

For me it's a pet peeve that these guys are paid so much cash and they won't be in peak physical condition. Many players complain about having to work out too much or restrict their diet... Guess what Jared makes 42x what I do in a year! They should have higher expectation on them and be required to stay in unbelievable shape.

DocHollywood
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That's a fair point of view, but I have to ask: what kind of shape do you think Jared would APPEAR to be in if his knee was healthy? Without his knee slowing him down you probably would never have thought he was overweight. 6'7" 225 is proportionate according to BMI height and weight charts. 242 lbs would be proportionate even.

tense2
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Java's logic at work again. Oy vey.

Apples and oranges procedure, but carry on.

Agent0
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You know that this is a totally different argument than saying he is fat, lazy, overweight and out of shape, right?

Could Jared get to a higher level of fitness, probably, I honestly don't know how he works and can't truly make conclusions from his body shape, but he's certainly not alone in that amongst NBA players. Is he underperforming for his job though? No, he isn't, he's just not being an overachiever.

Money is only so much of a motivator, I think we tend to forget that sometimes. Everyone says "if it was me making that much with all those resources, I would do so much more", but the reality is that it isn't the case. Most people tend to the average, some do the bare minimum, and some will go above and beyond. Maybe Jared is just an average man.

Does he actually look bigger than Phoenix? I mean it's been a couple of months since he was there, nothing crazy.

clipperboy24
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As a fan I always hope for and expect the best out of players that play for our team. Clearly not all fans have the same perspective and are fine with mediocrity.

A_DOG_NAMED_BUD
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It sounds like Dudley is finally getting healthy. Hopefully this means he'll better on defense and hit his jump shot more consistently.

Agent0
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Oh come on, get of your high horse, lol, please.

Straw man alert

tense2
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I wonder if Mullins got in better shape would that help him. Very Happy

jarca
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First, I'll never trade Lebron period not for Durant not for ANYBODY. He brings too much to the game.

I agree that per 36 is a good indicator of predicting what a player will produce but it's a terrible stats to use to compare two players especially when one can maintain production and capable of playing large minutes because the player is not a defensive/offensive liability and can defend without fouling.

You said some guys increase their rate but some guys rate also decrease. It can work both ways.

About Afflalo, Just caused he wasn't leading the team in scoring doesn't mean he wasn't the go to guy. Would you consider Blake the go to guy since he lead the team in scoring. Same goes for Afflalo.

I prefer Paul, Deng, Jordan, and griffin. I'll take that any day with some fillers. Why? because length and athleticism can do wonder into a team defense.

I don't know why you count deng being assisted 70% of the time a negative. That just means he puts himself in scoring position a lot. You got to get easy basket in the league. Is it his fault that he knows how to run the floor and slash? Also assist is a funny thing in the NBA. If Deng receives a pass and face up and shoot without dribbling that pass would have counted as an assist. Deng gets the ball pump fake and takes one dribble that's still consider an assist. Those number might have been inflated a bit.

I know that there's pure shooter in the league like Novak, Redick etc. but some shooting percentages have a lot to do with floor spacing. Not all but for some teams have such horrible spacing that most of the 3 points shots that the players attempt are easily contested. I am going to take Jodie Meek for example. Last year with Howard and Kobe's horrible floor spacing he struggled at the 3 point line but he's having a career year this year just like a lot of inflated stats we used to see in Phoenix back in the day.

clipper*joe
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Damn good post...Even though we disagree 95% of the time.

Agent0
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I wouldn't trade Lebron for anyone either, but your question didn't really make sense cause you were talking about combining per minute numbers or something that. The only player that could make some sense is Durant, but the two players equaling one's production stuff, that makes no sense, not sure what that was about.

I agree, some do go down, but we generally see the same range of production. Players production in the same role generally fluctuates around a certain per minute range.

What does per 36 mean?

Per 36 compares the rate of production of different players. It's actually just production per minute. The number 36 is only used because it is approx the average starters minutes in the NBA now and gives us a baseline. When players used to play 40 MPG in the early 2000's we used per 40.

We use per 36 because it makes more sense to people to say this guy puts up 15 pts/36 or 20 pts/36. That gives you an idea of his scoring acumen. If I said this guy puts up 0.55 pts/minute and therefore when on the floor is as capable a scorer as this other guy who puts up 0.5 pts/minute, does that even mean anything. How do you interpret that?

So I multiply that number by 36 and it gives me a number more palatable to how we look at players stats. So if you say player A scores 22 PPG and is a better scorer than Paul, but player A plays 42 MPG. I can say Paul averages 0.54 pts/min, player A averages 0.52 pts/min. Is he actually a better scorer or just on the court longer?

Or I could just say Paul averages 19.3 pts/36 and player A 18.9 pts/36, which one is better for discussion? You tell me... (I'll personally take per 36 over per minute because in the end I'll be converting per minute to something that makes more sense)

That's what we use per 36 for. it isn't about whether someone can play 36 minutes, 36 minutes is just a good baseline because we understand numbers based on that. If the average player played 24 mins, we would understand numbers based on that. A good rebounder is now someone averaging 6-7 rebounds, not 10. 20 PPG scorers are 13 PPG scorers. A great scoring season is 16-17 PPG (25+ pts/36).

What follows after?

After that, we can now proceed from that conversation and say "can Paul play 42 minutes" (he can btw). Then we maybe ask "will he have a drop-off in production because of the extra minutes". Maybe, maybe not, let's say he drops 5% on average in those extra 6 minutes. So if Paul averages 0.56 pts/min (20 pts/36) he would average 0.53 pts/min (19 pts/36) for his extra 6 minutes (on average). So in 42 MPG he would average 23.1 pts (19.8 pts/36) as opposed to 23.3 predicted by per 36, but come on, 0.2 pts.

Of course there are more variables. Does he slack more on defense for those 3 minutes a half to save energy? Does he pace gmself more, those are more relevant in a big minute change. The average player doesn't have any drop off in a small minute change and the average player can maintain production for at least low 30's in MPG, seemingly, most up to mid 30's.

It's not "advanced", it's just common sense.

So yes, it has value in comparison when we look holistically. Also when we are talking about someone already playing >25 MPG, or Dudley in this case who played 31.1 MPG already and had his best per 36 scoring and rebounding numbers that year while still at .575 TS%. 36 minutes is 5 more MPG. It isn't 5 straight, it is 2.5 per half. The question becomes whether I can get Dudkey 2:30 seconds a half of non high fatigue playing time where he maintains his production. Maybe, maybe not.

.

Afflalo and Orlando

When Orlando needed buckets late in games, they ran sets for Redick first, then secondarily for Afflalo. Their late game offense had a lot of Glen Davis and Jameer Nelson as the primary's options when those guys actually played. Afflalo did have to create more in the 4th since defenses to lock down more, he wasn't specifically good at it.

Later in the season, Tobias Harris was given isolations. Was there actually a point where Afflalo was just the focal guy?

You're comparing apples to oranges with Afflalo and Paul. Paul is a primary ball handler, high level playmaker and elite isolation player. Afflalo played none of those roles last season, so his shot distribution was quite indicative of his role in the offense.

$14M on Deng or not

With Paul, Griffin, Jordan and Ariza, I have actually more length and athleticism which will do wonders to my defense also, and I have better 3PT shooting, which compliments my stars better on offense, and $7M more to spend on my roster. I could get one player, maybe someone like Kevin Martin. I could get two, I have options. I could sign Afflalo as a free agent.

Now I have Paul / Afflalo / Ariza / Griffin / Jordan, even more length and athleticism and very good shooting. You take your Deng with Willie Green level players starting at SG (and I like Wilie), I'll take this option. Deng is not a superstar! hardly even an All-Star right now. Now if it was Paul George, I'll take him and Willie Green.

I agree on NBA assists, they are too generous, and where did I say it is a bad thing. You are the one that is saying one of Deng's attributes is the ability to create. My point is that Deng is not much of a creator. Let us understand that Caron Butler is a better shot creator and isolation player than Luol is. If you aren't actually creating effectively, what is the value to the team? I'd rather Paul iso's than Deng iso, and if Deng is less efficient on his assisted baskets than a Dudley, how is he better for my offense; because he's more capable and willing to put the ball on the floor and take a low percentage shot?

Jodie Meeks

I doubt he maintains 48% 3PT. He has so far this season, His struggle was shooting 1.7% less than his career average and 0.8% less than the previous season. That could just be fluctuation from the mean.

Meeks doesn't need "spacing", Meeks IS the spacer, so I don't even get what you mean by their horrible floor spacing hurting his shooting. He's shooting he same type of shots, open jumpers, other people not spacing well, I don't get the effect on him. He doesn't need others to space, he needs others to draw in defenses, he needs to provide the spacing, they need him to space the floor.

Now if you are saying that defenses were stretching more and not sucking in because of Kobe and Howard! that would seem to counter then general sentiment that the pairing or Gasol and a Howard was congesting the lane, not opening it up.

CP3Heliflopter
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jarca

You prefer Deng over Redick and Dudley? He is getting a lot more money than both players combined. Getting Deng would make us have very little cap flexibility and there is no doubt in my mind that one team will try to give him a near max contract.

Deng helps us a lot defensively but he also makes us significantly worse offensively. It would neuter our shooting not to mention how much he is paid. Its a pretty terrible tradeoff. Not to mention our biggest defensive woes come from our bench particularly our bench bigs not our starting unit and getting Deng would make it very hard for us not to go over the luxury cap if we wanted to upgrade our bench front court.

$14m is a lot of money and really Deng isn't an upgrade of both Redick AND Dudley. Defensively it makes us better but offensively it makes us a lot worse due to less floor spacing.

jarca
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I get what per 36 is but i just don't like the stat as a sole stat to compare to players. In basketball, a lot of your production depends on teammates, and coach. Look at Asik, with the assertion of Howard in the line up we saw his production at its lowest. Will it be fair to compare DJ and Asik game solely by looking at per 36?

Well Afflalo being forced to create in the 4th did bring his averages down. You don't think his number would have inflated if he was playing with CP3? Afflalo's number was a product of his coach and teammates.

I don't think Ariza would give you more shooting. They basically have the same number and Deng doesn't necessarily have the best offensive coach in VDN and Thibs. But Deng can get to the line more effectively which in my opinion pays teams dividend in the 4th. I can also count on Deng being the iron man of the team.

I mentioned the assist because if you watch the game when was the last time you see Dudley take anybody one on one. Dudley only shoots WIDE OPEN shots. I was trying to say that Deng can score with defenders on him and not necessarily cut and drive with no one guarding you. I am not saying let's have Deng Iso but if you watch Clippers games, CP3 is doing too much because we have two people in the starting line up that can't create or dribble. If Deng's responsibility is only to shoot wide open shots like Dudley then Deng's number would be more attractive. Again product of coach/team.

I used Meek as an example of someone who can thrive with a better set of teammates since his game depends solely on how the team use him and the opportunities his teammate creates

Another example is Xavier Henry. Some considered a bust because he played with defensive coaches like Monty and Hollins. But now he's playing with D'Antoni and he is now an asset. Per 36 is higher due to product of coach and system.

All I am saying is watch the game and see what guys can/ can't do

jarca
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Yes. After this year Deng should be in the 6-9 million range. At least what I predict. From watching Redick and Dudley, I think we're a great regular season team but will struggle in the playoff. We got too many players that depends solely on CP3 to score.

jarca
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Yes. After this year Deng should be in the 6-9 million range. At least what I predict. From watching Redick and Dudley, I think we're a great regular season team but will struggle in the playoff. We got too many players that depends solely on CP3 to score.

Voyeur
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We struggled in last year's playoffs partly because we had no reliable 3 point shooting (also partly because our defense was bad). Also because our shooters were primarily spot up, which made the offense very stagnant and predictable. With JJ and Jared, it's less predictable and more active. And we shouldn't have to rely on Paul like we did last year. We got those guys, plus Blake, plus Jamal.

pageC4
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Straw man, red herring, false dichotomies..etc. I applaud your familiarity with these terms. These are all types of phallacies, great for a debate class but this is a sports page why do you constantly bring these up? Some here aren't even familiar with these terms.

clipperboy24
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Dude you are the one who went there stating that Jared Dudley is fine where he is even though he could be in better shape. I am dead serious and it's no straw man argument. You on the other end have an empty argument and red herring going into a diatribe about cardiovascular health, and the difference between that and being cut or ripped.

You my friend are a funny guy! Thanks for the laughs in the thread.

If I was an owner I wouldn't tolerate having out of shape players on my team. That's not a high horse it's calling demanding more than the minimum.

pageC4
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Well put CB24. Especially after the offseason acquisitions we were predicted to be one of the top two teams in the west by some like Stephen A. Smith and others. The meandering we have done in the standings all season long is hard to accept, and I would say that I have higher standards for our guys than most.

clipperboy24
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Yeah it's not like I don't remember what it was like to be a fan of a losing team. I just want all the players to be committed to doing all they can to help the team. Physical condition is a big part of that picture.

I mean seriously which player that is visibly in great shape is in bad cardio shape since that was brought up? We are talking the ultimate distraction argument right there, lol.

pageC4
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This was a big issue last year as well. I remember someone calling out Lamar Odom because he looked fat in pictures right before the season began. Others quickly chimmed in that Lamar has never been a chiseled or athletic looking guy and that it wasn't anything to worry about. As the season went along we all found out that the criticism of the picture was not just an occurrence of one CTB member being pessimistic (or negative) but an actual lack of conditioning on Lamars part.

To make a long story short I remember this member of CTB got so much flak and got called a fake fan by others...turned out he was right Lamar was struggling with weight. Overtime things will be revealed, which is why its good for people not to attack or ostracize others opinions. Sometimes they turn out to be right.

clipperboy24
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That's definitely not what we want to happen again.

Good reminder to stay open minded though. We are all clippers fans at the end of the day

clipperboy24
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Interesting quote from JJ redick tonight how he said the key to him being able to put pressure on the opposing defense by constantly moving. He attributed it to "being in good shape." Wow I never would have thought it was important, lol. But he probably doesn't know what he is talking about.

ClippersDA
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Dudley crashed down to earth tonight. Need some consistency from him.

DocHollywood
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God you're a troll. We all know the importance of being in shape to play professional basketball. So does Dudley. What some people don't know is that injuries actually do effect athletic performance. How's that for trolling? The beautiful truth buried within your mountains of BS is that we all know you'd have nothing to say about Dudley's weight if his knee was healthy. FACT.

cleepers
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^ Maybe "good shape" varies daily. Dudley can go for 21 one night, and 3 the next.

My wife would say I'm the same. Sometimes I can go into triple-OT being aggressive the whole time, other times I'll just sit there for 15 minutes... "taking what the defense gives me".

Yellow_Flash_Colorz_PDT_08

But she'd also say that my career averages are very good!

CapsNClips
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It's really all about that team chemistry, you always gotta know where your teammate wants it. Never I say NEVER go for the back-door cut unless they call for it and there is a clear opening.

Those are the keys to a long career together. If you don't follow these two simple instructions your teammate might call for a replacement sub for you...or worse, switch teams.

cleepers
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^ HAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!

Too true. Knowing how and when to make that backdoor cut is what got me a ring!

Kingkanyon
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OMG, LMAO, that was two epic Posts.

clipperboy24
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I would hope the reason he is out of shape is solely based on his knee and nothing else. And sorry it's not trolling when I have been slammed by so many of you posters saying how ignorant I am and stupid. All I am doing is bringing the facts to the table and you guys really can't say anything except attack me personally.

Seriously though, he made Melo look skinny last night in comparison. Anyone could see that. That's not a good thing especially for a player who has a knee injury.

Icecoldclipper
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Dudley needs to put more effort into rebounding. No point in him leaking out when not athletic enough to finish consistently.

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