Jared Dudley Performance Discussion Thread (P. 9)

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DocHollywood
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I would hope the reason he is out of shape is solely based on his knee and nothing else. And sorry it's not trolling when I have been slammed by so many of you posters saying how ignorant I am and stupid. All I am doing is bringing the facts to the table and you guys really can't say anything except attack me personally. Seriously though, he made Melo look skinny last night in comparison. Anyone could see that. That's not a good thing especially for a player who has a knee injury.
You have trolled everyone....

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Kingkanyon
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I don't get the Overweight thing, Dudley's is rather Average to me, he's just not all cut up like a LBJ. But anyway, Jared Dudley isn't expected to be Great every single night, and he's not getting paid as though he should, his job is shot above 35 percent from 3 so we can have space for CP3 to drive and play Pic and Roll with Blake and DJ. If we were the 98 Jazz he'd be our version of Byron Russell (Although not as good on D). I think if you thought we were getting an All Star or a fringe All Star at the 3 in Jared Dudley than you must have been misinformed. That being said he is shooting about 36 percent from 3 right now, and that'll probably go up as the season comes along and once he gets fully healthy witch I'm not sure he'll get if he doesn't miss a few weeks or a month, Kinda hard to move around and shoot long range Jumpers when you have a bum Knee. HE'S NOT HEALTHY FOR ****** SAKE.

pageC4
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Every year there seems to be a player like this. A player who has talent, but the effort is questioned. There will be backers on both sides. For some members here that have been on CTB for a few years this will echo similarities to Baron Davis, Lamar Odom, and others like this. In time things will be revealed. Everyone just needs to chill.

Silasie
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Good post. Particularly the last sentence. Chill guys! We are all Clips fans so let's play nice.

Clippers_FTW
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Holy crap 9 pages. Is there that much to talk about 1 person. He's not terrable. Better than gomes in my opinion lol... This is gonna get longer than the fire vdn thread.

clipperboy24
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looked like Dudley's injury flared up again tonight. That had to be why he made such poor choices on defense. Outside of being paid less what is his advantage over Caron butler?

DocHollywood
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Why conflate injuries with decision making unless you're trolling? I'm honestly wondering why? I'd like to have a not so provocative discussion with you, but your choice of words is always just so damn trollish.

And have you seriously forgotten everything already written in this thread about how Caron is statistically worse then Dudley? Come on man.

If you're genuinely concerned with Jared's choices on defense, GIVE DETAILS WHY if you'd actually like to discuss it. Otherwise you come across like a hater that's just looking to take shots at him.

Silasie
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Your like a dog with a bone.

Voyeur
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Speaking of looking out of shape, is it me or is Raymond Felton the fattest point guard you've ever seen?

Agent0
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Jarca, the whole issue is that you can't watch enough games to be able to accurately get an idea of EVERY players abilities. The whole premise of just watching the game assumes that you can watch a good enough sample size of games and that your interpretation of what is happening and why is accurate.

That's why different people can watch a player and come to conflicting subjective opinions, and no, they can't both be right. Stats don't have bias, their interpretations can, just like the games themselves don't have bias, but a person's interpretation of a game can. That's where an objective statistical look can tip the scales one way or another with proper interpretation and supporting evidence.

We all know about confirmation bias. For example, clipperboy24 doesn't like Dudley. Let's say he was extremely biased against him, he might not be, but this is an example. When he's watching a game, he's going to be more vigilant in trying to find plays where Dudley does poorly. If Dudley's man scores, and it is unclear whether it is Dudley's fault or a help defenders fault, because he's already concluded that Dudley is slow and bad on defense, he will cconclude it is Dudley's fault. When Dudley does something good, he will attempt to minimize it. So now, clipperboy24 will watch a game and interpret it and say Dudley was terrible, but someone else watches and doesn't see the same thing.

So can we just say "watch the game". Everyone has some bias, some more than others, but usually it is hard to find objective view points from people who already have a strong bias in one direction or another.

Nothing to do with per 36

You're mentioning per 36, but all you are referring to is that numbers need context and interpretation / explanation. You aren't debating against per 36, your debating against numbers without analysis. Just plain looking at production without examining minutes is part of what you are debating against. Basketball is best interpreted by watching games AND looking at stats. If I think a player is playing / scoring well and I go and look at the stats and they say he isn't, I don't say "well the stats are wrong". I ask why, sometimes the stats can answer it, sometimes I have to watch and see why, or both.

Afflalo

If Afflalo having to create in the 4th brings his numbers down so much, then the conclusion is that he is NOT an effective shot creator. So to say one of Afflalo's NBA skills over another player is the ability to create is a bit mis-leading, because the ability to create poorly doesn't have value to winning. That means on a better / good team, Afflalo isn't creating, therefore what is the relevance of his ability to creat poorly on a bad team to a good team?

Asik

Actually it would be much more fair to compare their games looking at per 36 than at raw numbers. Raw numbers says Asik is a 4.7 pts / 7.1 rebs player, but omits that he only plays 18.8 MPG, is that an accurate representation of his scoring and rebounding ability?

Raw numbers last season said that DJ was a 8.8 pts / 7.2 rebs player, but doesn't mention that he only played 24.5 MPG. Now they reverse roles in terms of minutes, and is DJ "better" or is he playing more? Then was Asik actually much "better" at producing last season, or was he just playing more.

Then let's look at context. Asik's production is the same as it has been at other points when he wasn't playing next to all shooters. Dwight gives him less opportunities near the basket, so he scores less points, which was similar to Chicago where he played next to guys like Gibson, not a stretch 4.

Even just on year fluctuation, per 36:

12.2 pts / 14.0 rebs / 1.3 blks / 2.5 tov

8.9 pts / 13.7 rebs / 0.9 blks / 2.4 tov

That's last year and this year, only difference is scoring. His scoring was better last season than it would generally be on a team without all shooters and playing a slower pace. So on LAC he's not likely a 12.2 pts/36 guy because Blake isn't out on the 3PT line like a Parsons.

Okay, more context, Asik is a better man defender than DJ, and arguably a better positional defender, so despite similar production on the court, Asik has historically been a better and higher impact defender.

You said making an argument "solely" on per 36, when did anyone say we should do that? Yes, if someone does that, it is wrong. No less wrong than making conclusions solely based on their non minute adjusted numbers, or looking at scoring and disregarding efficiency, or making conclusions based on a small sample size of games, etc, etc. ALL those things are inaccurate. That's why we want to watch and then use ALL the data we can. When people want to toss out any data because they don't like it, or don't understand it, that is actually when there is a problem.

If I think Blake is shooting well from mid-range, but the stats say he's shooting 34%, I'm not going to say well the stats are wrong. It's most likely that he had streaks that skewed my viewpoint or I focused more on the makes than misses, or I have a flawed way or interpreting good shooting from mid-range when watching a game, or I just watched only the games he shot well.

Use ALL the data. Basically people want say "how I interpret what I'm watching is better than your interpretation" and then say something in a factual manner, but then end with IMO as their safety net. Anyone can have an opinion, but opinions without any evidence or backing, what is the value of that for discussion?

Xavier Henry

Great example for why I say you look at ALL data. He's still a bad offensive player, but he's playing more minutes, taking more shots, had a few outlier games, and turning the ball over more and people think he's "good" now. He was injured most of his first 3 seasons.

If we look at more than raw numbers and a couple of box-scores or highlights of him scoring 20+.

Per 36

12-13:

11.2 pts / 5.2 rebs / .571 free throw rate / 1.8 tov / .481 TS% / 94 Ortg

13-14:

15.6 pts / 4.7 rebs / .568 free throw rate / 2.4 tov / .497 TS% / 93 Ortg

Per 36 is higher, but not "better". So he scores more and can shoot three's better, but his overall effectiveness on offense is still bad and the same. How did you come to the conclusion that he was actually better? Honestly?

Most people:

-outlier game they saw a box score or highlights of

-higher PPG

-higher 3PT%

They take those things (all stats) and say he's better. Few are saying he's better because they saw a good sample of his 50 games last season compared to a good sample of his 17 games this season. Not to mention that it's only 17 games and he can easily regress back to the mean. He's barely shooting 40% FG.

Deng

Deng is not as good an open shot shooter as Jared from what I've seen, but a stat could prove me wrong. Yes, less responsibility, he would score less, but the assumption that every layer can play / adjust to the role player role is false. Also if he's playing that role, you don't want to be paying him double digits.

Deng's ironman nature is great, but he has a lot of built up injuries hurting his shooting performance too. Ariza has been a better shooter recently. Is it factual that getting to the line helps in the 4th (you said in your opinion). But if your opinion is wrong, then Deng has no added value with that. Some argue that rest are more stingy with calls later in close games, so do I want better spot up shooting, or better foul drawing? Really depends.

Still, we can't base Deng's value on his projected future contract, we don't know that. RIGHT NOW he makes $14M and isn't worth it for a team like LAC.

tense2
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Nothing other than this.....and the 8mil he's getting paid plus a certain player would most likely not be playing with this team. That's all.

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clipper*joe
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Confirmation bias can also include the using of stats, or any information put forth that tends to lean in ones favor. As for your example, it's a bit too simplistic. Watching a game as well as the using of stats only go as far as your knowledge of the game. Not all fans are created equal when it comes to knowledge of the game.

Using your example, I would fall into the category that Dudley's defense was horrible...Just to mention one player since that was your example.

I have no real bias when it comes to dudley, in fact, I love the signing. With that said, he kept on getting smoked backdoor by Williams and in one case, on consecutive plays. he had his back turned most of the time where it was too late for him to react. Now, my opinion is technically subjective but where is your stat that tips the scale to prove me wrong?

we can argue that on some of the plays there was no help defense to protect the rim but I'd argue that the play was so quick, there was no real time to react to those allyoops.

My point is that stats never tell the whole story and there are very little stats that measure real defense. Stats are a supplement, they're one dimensional. Take for instance, the PER. The per is a bad model in my opinion. The model is flawed in and of itself cause it uses a formula that that is unrealistic based on real time production. It is also biased towards the players that play great in spurts, with little time on the floor. In other words, the better you play in small increments, the better you look on paper when stretched out on the PER stat.

I love stats just like most of you but I don't live by them either. I consider myself a student of the game and I like to banter using both tools. Stats leave out so much and don't take real life game scenarios into consideration. It's too black and white for me to live off of them knowing there are too many other factors missing.

Anyway, that's my two cents on this.

Agent0
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Confirmation bias can also include the using of stats, or any information put forth that tends to lean in ones favor. As for your example, it's a bit too simplistic.
I agree completely, and we are saying the same thing. Now, there is a bit of a difference, if a stat confirms what you think, it isn't a subjective confirmation unless you are cherry picking the stats or giving an incomplete picture, or just going looking for a stat that confirms your belief. If many methods of statistical analysis confirm a belief, it's mainly an objective confirmation. I don't have much....

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DocHollywood
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Some good points Agent0 and Joe. It seemed like Dudley was never expecting the repeated backdoor cuts from Williams and neither was our help defense. I like to think our team defense as well as Jared's individual defense will both improve with time, but we'll see.

ClipperPostman
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DUDley has been terrible this season. I have watched every game. I don't need statistics to show me him getting burned on defense over and over. Or clanking shots over and over.

Making boneheaded plays like forcing passes.

Caron was way better than this DUD... With that being said I feel like Dudley will turn it on soon. But right now he isn't fitting into his role.

Which is to play Decent D on opposing SF's (which he got murdered vs Sac) and knock down open shots.

He hasn't lived up to expectations and even he will tell you that.

ClipperPostman
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How can you have help defense when he blows by his defender so quickly?? Dudley didn't even attempt to slow him down. They were lob city all over Dudley. They he was getting punked down low over and over.

clipperboy24
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Haha he can definitely afford to hit the gym. I think we can all agree he is out of shape

Voyeur
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It's hard for me to judge Jared right now because I truly don't know if the knees are the problem. I do feel that once Matt Barnes comes back and gets comfortable with the system, our SF woes will seem a little less problematic.

DocHollywood
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This is becoming such a circular conversation I can't believe it.

Many have lowered their short term expectations for Dudley, myself included. It's only logical. He will heal eventually, sooner if he finally gets some quality time on the bench. His fg% of 46 and his 36% from 3 are fine and likely to improve as his knee heals just like his defense will. From what Jared has said recently, his lateral quickness in particular has been really hurt by the tendinitis and you're right that he knows he hasn't impressed anybody so far. Like I've said before, it's extremely unlikely that he is going to be able to simply, "turn it on soon" unless he is given time off to heal once Barnes comes back. That's how tendinitis works. It's also probably not a wise assumption to call anyone a "Dud" who is presently injured and who played much better when healthy. That's not to say If we had a trade available right now for another $4million SF who shoots a career 40%+ from distance and (normally) plays solid defense I wouldn't consider it. Guys like Dudley (when healthy) are just not typically acquired for only 4mil a year.

Can we put this discussion to bed now?

ClipperPostman
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Not until he does something. I'm very familiar with Tendinitis since

I suffered from it for a long time.

One thing about tendinitis is it doesn't "heal" like people think.

Its inflammation of the tendons which can pop up at anytime

during heavy physical activity.

So if his woes are from This tendinitis then he may not be right

all season. Then what?

Doc I really don't understand your philosophy. You're willing to

trade a guy off the bench who can put up 31/7/11, but defend

a starter who by his own standards is playing beyond subpar.

I don't get your basketball philosophy bro.

DocHollywood
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What do you mean when you say you, "don't know if the knee(s) are the problem?"

Everyone here knows his knee is the problem by now I thought. Or are there more theories being pulled from thin air? The LA Times had a very detailed interview and description just last week.

Voyeur
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Don't get mad at me, I'm not the one who's been belaboring all these arguments.

I'm simply saying his production is unimpressive, his rebounding is terrible and he can't seem to guard certain players. I'm sure is knee is hurting, but I'm saying I'm not sure if that's the reason his play is so lack luster or not. I'm saying that no matter what the reason, we'll be in better shape at the SF position once Barnes comes back.

Agent0
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This is what I've experienced and why I think having him rest for some time is needed. If you keep playing, it doesn't just "go away", so if he keeps playing, even reduced minutes, it's hard to imagine how he doesn't suffer from this all season.

I think the willingness to trade Jamal is based on trade value. Jamal has value

DocHollywood
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I'm not mad at you and I apologize if I came across that way. I was just surprised to hear that particular comment from you. I agree with everything you said but I believe his bad knee has everything to do with these concerns.

ClipperPostman
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Lets say We took the approach a lot of the people on this board were saying.

We traded Jamal for a defensive/Rebounding big that plays 20 minutes per game.

Now you have CP3 out, JJ out, Dudley rendered useless, Matt barnes out.

We would be losing every single game at this point. Especially now that our starting SG is out with a sprain on his SHOOTING WRIST.

But since we have the only player since 2009 out of 58 players who average 15ppg that comes off the bench, we can weather many storms.

This is why I try to explain to people Basketball isn't played by stats, or what looks good on paper.

If you watch Jamal play you realize he is a talent that is capable of winning games with his individual effort. Not many players in the league can do this. let alone starters.

As far as Dudley. I'm praying he isn't a waste. I'd rather let Reggie start and develop then watch dudley stink it up.

DocHollywood
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^^^^Agreed. Thanks!

tense2
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That is just not a true statement. Now IF you said " I think Caron was way better than Dudley", well everyone is free to have their opinion....even if it doesn't have any data to back it up. wink

pageC4
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Once Barnes comes back Dudley needs to sit down and rest. I want to see him in something from the Mens Warehouse, he may not like the fact that he is not playing, but he'll like they way he looks...I guarantee it

DocHollywood
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I agree with just about everything you said although I'm still not sold on Bullock starting. With CP and now JJ hurt, Jamal's value to our team skyrockets. Prior to our deep backcourt losing a lot of its depth, our shallow frontcourt was a much greater concern to me. If CP and JJ were healthy but Blake was out the script would be flipped, but much worse.

Voyeur
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Oh LAWD, we can't afford that....NO MORE INJURIES CLIPPERS!!!

ClipperPostman
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I'm one of the few people that don't need data because being in LA I get to watch every single game. Just like I have for many years.

I remember watching Caron and Watching Dudley. Again you can't just rely on data because data doesn't factor in things like shift in momentum, the time in which the shot was made, and overall impact of the play. IE a critical rebound, shot, block etc...

Those things can only be factored in by people who WATCHED THE GAME.

So to say it's not a "True" statement. Well you are going to have to show me where it isn't. And not just by "Numbers". I know too much about basketball to just judge purely by numbers.

I'm not even judging dudley by his numbers. I'm judging by his performance on the court. Someone could be playing well but shots just aren't falling. IE JJ in a few games this season.

DocHollywood
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He went to Jared...or wait, maybe the Men's Warehouse will actually go to Jared so he can stay off that knee Very Happy

Voyeur
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I never thought I'd miss Caron's 2.9 rebounds per game. lol

Seriously, I don't miss Caron's defense. Say what you will about Dudley, it seems to me we aren't getting quite as outclassed by other SF's than when Caron was guarding them.

tense2
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You answered my question which is, data aside, You think he's "better" with no analytical objective correlations to substantiate your "believes" because I watch him play. Pure speculation....hmmm.

ClipperPostman
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OK Here is the data:

Caron Butler: 10.4 ppg 24 mpg

DUDley: 8.0 ppg 28 mpg

Caron Butler: 2.9 RPG

Dudley: 1.9 RPG

3pt%

Caron Butler: 38.8%

DUDley: 36.1%

And that is comparing Dudley with Last years caron. If I compared them with Caron this year he is blowing DUDley out the water with 13ppg and 5.6 RPG.

Notice how I called Caron butler from my own knowledge and went and got the data that confirmed exactly what I said.

CARON > DUDLEY Last year and this year.

And I'm not even bringing up FREETHROW % hence dudley is 57%... Is tendinitus messing up his freethrows to?

Case closed.

tense2
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That's all the data you're going to give me??

Just comparing years (and forgetting LT numbers) 2011/12, 2012/13 your not even using FGA's per game or FG% let alone the advance #'s like PER, TS%, eFG%, WS/48 or WP (wins Produced). They show what's what not just those cherry pick stats you threw out.

Even with Dudley playing on that bad knee he beats Caron in almost even department this year.

Now, I understand your preference for favoring what you watch, to what you "think" the data reveals. You need to use use all the tools in the tool box, now just some if your going to "build" your case....which isn't closed by a long shot.

pageC4
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I agree with you. But as you can see there are still a lot of people who favor Dudley. As I metioned before every year there is always a mercurial player like this, and there will always be people who favor them.

pageC4
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Wow, can we have Caron back? I'll throw in a free Clippers scarf (sponsored by State Farm) and Jared Dudley for Caron:)

DocHollywood
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For me it boils down to Dudley being half price, much younger, a better shooter (for their careers it isn't even close), and when healthy, a better playmaker and defender. The freethrows.........I got nothin. 57% is pathetic, especially for him. Fortunately he's too hobbled to draw a lot of fouls right now lol

tense2
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Perfect, LOL, just perfect. Yellow_Flash_Colorz_PDT_40

clipper*joe
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But now you're setting the boundaries after you asked him for data. He gave you data and it backs up his claim. The PER is a joke just like Hollinger running the Grizzlies. Like I said earlier, the PER is a bad stat model that isn't recognized by the NBA.

tense2
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Come on Joe geez. What about the other important data for Pete's sake. And because YOU think PER is a joke doesn't make it so. A lot of well respected advance stat sites and bloggers like Steve Perrin use it so it can't be that big of a joke. wink

pageC4
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This! Exactly reveals the fallabilty of stats...the users behind them set their own parameters for judging and comparing players.

Voyeur
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While we're at it, does anyone know the defensive stats between the two? What opponents shot, stuff like that.

ClipperPostman
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Lol bro you're really reaching. I went straight to the stats that have been used for the past 100 years to determine a players worth.

PPG

RPG

FT %

3pt %

FG %

Caron has DUDley beat in 4 out of 5 categories. And not to mention Caron did it on 4mpg LESS.

I don't care how many ways you compile the stats there is no way to argue that a guy playing MORE MINUTES averaging LESS POINTS and LESS REBOUNDS and shooting a WORST 3PT % and FT% is better/more valuable.

Now with all of this being said I am still excited by DUDley. I think him being healthy can be more valuable then a declining Caron. Only if his 3pt % is above 40%.

But the reality is even if we look at Career Numbers DUDley can't hold a candle to an All-star like Caron. DUDley has never really did anything in his career to qualify him as a great player. But he can be a solid role player if he is rebounding, solid D, and knocking down 3's... Which he is not... Period...

But I'm rooting for DUDley... believe it or not.

tense2
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Oh brother, stat's have SOME fallibility. It doesn't stop them from trying to improve it. The same fallibility can be said about someone who gets his info from just watching the game, LOL.

pageC4
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I hope for the Clippers sake your argument on Dudley is correct because so far he has been attrocious and if a better option came along at SF I would take it

clipper*joe
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Just like you have "respected" bloggers who use them, there are others who have found holes in them. I love Steve's articles but this isn't about "you're with me, or against me" deal. I read what he has to say but SOMETIMES, I don't agree with everything he's written. My opinion is my opinion and I think some of the advance stats are not useful models. basically, you have sites that have tweaked sabermetrics into the NBA. I for one don't think the same model works the same for each sport. It's just someone tweaking someone else's work. call me a skeptic but that's how i feel.

Anyway, your argument with postman comes down to both of you trying to use YOUR own individual stats to prove your own arguments. You can't diminish him for not using what you felt was appropriate. He's using raw stats to make his point and you blame him for not using advance stats that some blogger decided to tweak off someone else's work that was created for a different sport.

DocHollywood
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Caron is old and is missing games with a bad knee right now ironically enough. You need to compare Dudley and Butler over at basketballreference.com then come back and edit your post. Dudley is a MUCH BETTER SHOOTER from all distances (besides free throws lol) which is what this team wanted. Compare them for their entire careers, not just a cherry-picked year or two. When younger, Caron was better. In 2013, a HEALTHY Dudley is better.

pageC4
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Same here. Our success depends on it.

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