Jared Dudley Performance Discussion Thread (P. 11)

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ClipperPostman
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Weekend warriors (folks who engage in high-intensity activities such as running or basketball on the weekend but do little to maintain conditioning during the week) often develop tendinitis in the knees. Simply being overweight can also contribute to knee tendinitis. Age is another risk factor. Over time, tendons become less flexible and the involved muscles lose strength, both of which further stress the tendons. Inflexible hamstring and quadricep muscles make you more susceptible as well. http://www.health.harvard.edu/healthbeat/taming-tendinitis-in-the-knee   Knowing this, one can surmise that conditioning or lack of could have caused the condition. It was the off-season/training camp/preseason when it occurred. Not being in....

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Agent0
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You aren't saying anything different from me joe. "Can contribute" is basically what I said "may increase risk", those are terms that can be used to mean a similar thing by different people medically.

What I'm saying is that weight does not "cause" tendonitis. Weight issues are more likely to cause arthritis in joints, not tendonitis.

Agent0
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You forgot that Dudley also rotates to the PF spot in Phoenix like Gomes did in Minnesota.
I was anticipating the Phoenix medical staff (or stuff?) response, and that is fair, they are known as being good, but obviously it's hard to believe that a couple months removed from being in Phoenix his body now just starts breaking down. The tanking is true about some teams, but what we want to know is whether that's what Phoenix was doing. Was Dudley playing on a team trying to loose? Was Phoenix with Nash trying to tank? If not, why is lottery or not....

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ClipperKyle32
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Did anyone see Ariza yesterday? I like that guy a lot! I remember when Sterling turned down that Caron Butler-Trevor Ariza trade! I wonder if he would turn down a Jared Dudley-Trevor Ariza trade? Not....

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DocHollywood
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Did it occur to anyone that Jared has maybe gained a few pounds as a result of the tendinitis, not the other way around? He is being told to rest and relax the knee when not playing in games, otherwise it will worsen.

pageC4
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I was shocked when I heard about that trade. Especially the age differences between the two, and Washington was about to do the trade. I don't think we get the same interest in Dudley though, but if we do I wonder if the front office would do it.

ClippersDA
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Ariza would be perfect! So mad sterling killed it.

pageC4
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Sterling is Sterling. His reputation precedes him. The best thing he has done the past couple of years is set his pride aside and let his front office do their jobs. Still can't wait to see the franchise in better hands.

Agent0
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Ariza has been a guy I've vouched for, outside of durability issues, he would be a nice fit. Dudley doesn't work contract wise

Agent0
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    Skewed info if I'm trying to prove that he was some star, I wasn't. We are talking about what kind of team he played for, so the context of the conversation is important. jarca was saying that Dudley was playing on lottery teams with a negative implication of his ability to play on a good team. Usually the implications that come with that are:
      -playing bad basketball -not playing team basketball (therefore can't fit on a good team) -padding stats -not playing defense and hustling

    Firstly, those aren't things we can attribute to Dudley in Phoenix. Then, even on an actual bottom of the barrel team last year, the guy was still playing good "proper" basketball. Taking proper shots, making the extra pass, hustling, defending, so the whole point he was trying to make from that doesn't really work.

    We don't determine value, importance or contribution to a team purely based on raw stats though. Still, he was playing half the game for them both in the regular season and in 16 playoff games where he hit 1.6 3's/game on 42%, had a .620 TS% and 130 Ortg. Gomes played on a team that never even got to 25 wins while he was there. Dudley on the other hand has played 1 less playoff game than Blake Griffin and 16 less total playoff minutes than DJ!

    He was on one playoff team btw, they didn't make the playoffs in the 46 win season. This discussion is a good example of poor use of statistics. Looking at the win/loss stat or the conference seeding stat and determining what kind of basketball a team was playing or how certain players were playing ("good" or "bad" basketball) is just not accurate. It's as inaccurate as the assumption that every player on a team that won is playing winning basketball.

"One thing that is alarming about his numbers was the more minutes he got how little his rebounding and assisting increased."

    Should they have increased more? He maintained the same rate of rebounding, I don't understand what you mean here. I think you have the wrong expectations of increase. Also assists are dependent on role as much as passing ability. So if Dudley wasn't being used as a playmaker, he's not going to get assists. Good role players understand their role and don't try to do too much, that's why they are good role players. Bad role players are the ones who get turnovers and shoot poor percentages b/c they are trying to do too much.

      08-09 to 12-13: 15.2 MPG: 11.7 REB% / 7.0 AST% 24.3 MPG: 8.0 REB% / 7.9 AST% 26.1 MPG: 8.6 REB% / 7.6 AST% 31.1 MPG: 8.4 REB% / 8.8 AST% 27.5 MPG: 6.4 REB% / 14.9 AST%
    Doesn't seem like there's a pattern there of decreasing with more mins. His rebounding stays in the same range except for last season, but he played more minutes in 11-12, so it isn't because of increased minutes, actually the opposite. His AST% was in the same range then increased after Nash left because he was doing more playmaking.

    I'm interested to know how you were interpreting the numbers to come to those conclusions you had. If you are talking about Phoenix vs Charlotte, he played PF in Charlotte, so yea, he would be getting more rebounds then.

"It's interesting though how few shot attempts which brings in the criticism that he is mainly a wide open jumper shooter and struggles to create off the dribble or even to score when contested (instead of a shot attempt he will pass off the ball but still has a very low assist average)."

    A lot of this sounds questionable. Dudley is a 4th/5th option, he SHOULD have relatively few shot attempts. When did anyone think the Clippers were acquiring a shot creator in Dudley? With that said, the past 3 seasons, 11.0 FGA/36 (0.31 FGA/minute) and 14.5 pts/36 (0,40 pts/min), not sure why anyone would expect him to be shooting or scoring more than that for his role.

    There's a difference between "passing the ball off" and "creating shots", so passing off bad shots, or you know, "smart basketball", what he should be doing as a role player isn't necessarily going to get assists.

    A role players unwillingness to take bad or overly contested shots is a good thing, not a criticism. I don't know about his personal contested vs uncontested percentages, but the whole point of contesting shots is that it makes it lower percentage. I can't think of a good coach that wants his role players to be taking contested shots or trying to do more than they can in creating off the dribble. That sends players to the bench.

    Interestingly enough, Dudley actually has a good one dribble pull up, can also use the screen and roll to get free and make a shot, and has been able to get oppurtunities near the basket for himself. He isn't a "shot" creator in the on ball sense and shouldn't be aspiring to try and be one.

    Back to assists, you have to create to get volume assists. 1) Dudley played with Nash, so there's no reason for him to be creating much, 2) the one year without Nash he had a 3.4 assists/36 assist rate. Right now per 36 on the Clippers, outside of Paul, only Collison (4.1 assists/36) and Crawford (3.6 assists/36) are higher than his assist rate last season. For the fact that he's not fast, not some exceptional ball handler, etc, 3.4 assists/36 is quite GOOD, not bad.

    For comparison, Caron Butler averaged 1.5 assists/36 as a Clipper (both years), and this year is at 1.8 assists/36 for Milwaukee. Dudley averaged 2.0 assists/36 the three previous years with Nash.

The other problem with his game is his ft shooting % of 74% is very low for an "elite shooter.

    He's an elite shooter from the field. Career .580 TS%, 40.3 3PT%, and in a down year he's well above league average TS% with .564 TS% and above league average 3PT% (36.2%) with 37.1%.

    Lastly, his "best stats" are actually extremely good for a role player. This is the problem with knowing how to find and look at stats and understanding them. A lot of what you are saying seems like you don't get the stats here or don't get the relation between minutes and production and the importance of efficiency from role players. I'm not sure what kind of production you think $4M/year 4th/5th option role players put out.

    What's your idea of good stats for a player like this and in how many minutes, just so we get an idea of the expectations?


If he does continue to struggle due to injury, then the acquisition didn't pan out for this year. We'll just have to look to Jeff Green last year for hope. The guy was pretty bad for about 40 games last season, people were laughing at Boston, then for the last half of the season though, there was no more laughing.

clipperboy24
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^^^ agent, no offense but I obviously have a different opinion and just because I do doesn't mean I don't know how to use stats or what stats to look at. His rebounding is very poor and his assist level is very poor. If he isn't going to contribute too much as a 4th/5th option scoring wise then he should have something else to contribute rebounding, assist, spacing, defensively. The interesting thing about Dudley's game? There is very little movement which doesn't increase spacing as much as a Redick type player and also the fact that the defense can collapse on him quickly and he won't usually attempt a shot or some other move outside of passing, IMO (key part) nullifies the "fact" that he is an elite shooter because he won't often use that "Elite" skill.

So if all he truly has to pin his hat on is high shoot % but at a low shooting rate, then that is not much especially if he becomes any type of defensive liability which blearily he is now. So far, to me, he is proving to be Gomes 2.0 as Jarca said and I don't think one or two good games from him out of 20 is even worth the $4.25mm.

I wish he was anywhere near as good as Jeff Green, so that kind of turnaround can only happen when someone actually has legit potential. But I don't even think if Dudley averages his 12 PPG, 4 RPG and 2 apg from last year (his best season) those really aren't even great #s from a role player who is also a mediocre to decent defender. It's about the complete player picture. I think a big reason Dudley was brought in was for a locker room presence/glue type guy but I don't think that is enough to overcome his other shortcomings. Again this is my opinion just like you have an opinion, both of us have used stats I in no way have manipulated the stats either so please do not insinuate this.

Right now, due to a number of reasons, to me its very clear that Reggie Bullock should be getting heavier minutes than an injured Dudley and if he keeps showing potential and realizing it, even more than a healthy Dudley.

clipperboy24
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Also, you listed the implications of playing for a team like Phoenix and the funny thing is, they really were a very bad team defensively, didn't play very good team basketball, and struggled across the board. This was why Marcin Gortat wanted to get out of there. They were a rebuilding wasteland, so he never has proved how much he can contribute to a true contender because he really didn't contribute that much to the WCF Suns team even though he played 24.5 Mpg.

jarca
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The tanking is true about some teams, but what we want to know is whether that's what Phoenix was doing. Was Dudley playing on a team trying to loose? Was Phoenix with Nash trying to tank? If not, why is lottery or not relevant? Define "horrible" for Barnes, do you mean the horrible playoffs after he suffered an ankle injury, or what is the horrible you are referring to? Horrible in comparison to how Barnes usually plays, or in comparison to? I'm going to take a stab at what Barnes issue is: 1) and I said it in the off-season, he is 33....

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jarca
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Agent,

LMAO, Dudley isn't going to have a season resurgence like Green. He has zero potential athletic wise as Green.

Agent0
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You're way too concerned about how athletic a player is. Production isn't tied to athletic ability. Shooting better, being able to get lower to the ground, rebounding better would men Dudley is playing better, don't know what being athletic has to do with anything.

This has nothing to do with comparing Dudley as a player to Green, but about a player struggling early and picking it up later.

Agent0
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I understand what it means for him to play PF, lol, but what I'm telling you is that they did not use Dudley as a PF in small ball lineups. Just because you say so doesn't mean it happened. I went to check at both 82games and basketball-reference and they also confirmed that he played like 95%+ of his minutes at SF and SG.

Really insignificant to be saying he played PF if he played 1 minute every two games at PF. What's that, like 41 minutes over a season? Lol. They used Hill as their 4 when they went smaller. Dudley played SF/SG for Phoenix, so no, it's not the same as Gomes in that respect.

I didn't like the Matt Barnes signing because of his age, never said I liked it. That doesn't mean Deng is better than 3 average to above average players. It means that the Clippers didn't use that money effectively. Of course it is a moot point since it is hypothetical and it's not like there was some trade for Deng prevented by acquiring these guys.

Barnes played quite well as a Laker and was making <1M. If you think his play as a Laker was horrible for him, you must think he's more than a role player. He played about as well as a Laker as he had his whole career. Seems like people are still projecting his playoff struggles after being injured as how his whole season went.

tense2
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^Some people favor athleticism over skill set because it "looks" better. I'll take skill set every time over athleticism. The best case scenario is if the player has both of those qualities.

jarca
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If you mean picking it up by averaging 10 points instead of 8? How can Dudley realistically pick up his game. It's not like he's going to average 5 rebounds. He didn't even do that on an 8 seconds or less offense. Is he going to be a great facilitator or of the sudden. The guy has no handles.

jarca
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Well you used Barnes when talking about value. So even you would agree that Barnes doesn't have much value for his contract? So that leaves Dudley who we have to "wait" so he can have a green type resurgence. So that leaves Redick who was performing well and 2 overpaid guys?

So what's wrong with Deng at the 3 spot and maybe Bullock at the 2 spot

clipper*joe
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Athleticism and skill set are not mutually exclusive. LBJ, Westrook, Durant, Rose, Wade, BG, and most of the best players depend more on athleticism than skill set. Not saying that they don't have any but these guys "look" better when their athleticism is displayed in a vulgar way. And usually, it's their athleticism that enables them to build a skill set better than players that are not so gifted in the athletic department.

Silasie
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True, you can't really separate one from the other.

ClipperPostman
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So are you guys saying DUDley is the new bobby simmons?

worm
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Nope he is a lot better than Simmons.

CP3Heliflopter
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Sure if your talking about the 24-25 years old version. Razz

tense2
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Those 6 players you've named all have above average to an elite type of athleticism that plays very well with their skill set obviously. That's the best case scenario I previously mentioned. Having that type of athleticism does not win games by itself as many current NBA players, lottery picks and slam dunk champions can attest.

There are plenty of skilled and effective players who "only" possess the "baseline" athleticism required to play at the NBA level. Quick example of such would be Kevin Love on the top end and Reggie Evans on the other end. HOF'rs who didn't do too bad in their careers without that "other" type of athleticism; Larry Bird, Kevin McHale and the notorious Bill Laimbeer just to name a few.

Anyway If looks do it for you, that's fine. I prefer results since putting the ball in the basket still counts for the same amount of points whether it looks good or ugly. Same can be said about rebounding or playing defense.

P.S.

Love the Straw man sign though, but be careful as objects in the mirror are closer then they appear.

clippersforlife33
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im pretty disappointed with dudley. the fact that the phoenix suns pretty much only gave up dudley for bledsoe is still mind boggling.

what_up_clipnation83
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Our team shoots dumb shots sometimes

what_up_clipnation83
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Dudley sucks, I wish we would've did the Ariza butler trade lady year

what_up_clipnation83
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2nd game in a row a circus last second 3 goes in

what_up_clipnation83
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This is the worst game I've seen the Clippers play this season.

Akclipps
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Dudley sucks

pageC4
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Well, it's hindsight now. We're stuck with him. The only thing to save this season is a trade. I just don't see this team getting better.

CP3Heliflopter
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I am honestly fed up with his poor play. Wish Barnes comes back quickly.

Clippers_FTW
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Just put in Bullock.. I think he's better lol

pageC4
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The upside on Bullock is that even if he has a bad game its going to be attributed to him being a rookie, and after every bad performance we can expect him to learn from it. Where as with Dudley the guy is a veteran and has probably reached his pinnacle as a player.

CP3Heliflopter
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If only we traded Butler for Ariza and tried playing Bledsoe at the 2.

Spacing would not be that good but that defense!

A very good wing defender in Ariza + a defensive maniac in Bledsoe. *drools*

Agent0
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I still wanted to try that Bledsoe at SG thing, just very reminiscent of Avery Bradley with Boston, except a more talented offensive player.

That Ariza trade should have been made

CP3Heliflopter
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Bledsoe would be undersized for a SG but he has a great wingspan + he is very athletic. Our offense would take a hit for sure but I guarantee we would be a top 10 defensive team at the very least with those two guys assuming Mullens doesn't play. If we have a defensive backup big like Odom we could arguably be a top 5 defensive team.

Nevertheless, Bledsoe would have gotten traded at some point since he would get a big pay day but we could have gotten more for him if we traded Butler for Ariza. Maybe Redick + another nice asset. Lots of possibilities. If we had to trade him I would want a talented two way 3 and D player like Kawhi Leonard.

tense2
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Some of us wanted to try that experiment with Bled at the 2, but most people here were against that. Oh well.

Voyeur
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Our shooting would be terrible with Bledsoe at the 2. And certainly wouldn't work for the kind of offense Doc had in mind. Gotta love Bledsoe's energy and defense though.

Agent0
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^Maybe not terrible, spacing would not be as good, true, but the offense would still be able to be effective. Just have to balance it. Get a high volume, high percentage 3PT shooter at the 3, eg: Dorell Wright type guy.

I guess we should refer to it more as Gentry's offense, but Doc's offense in Boston did have Avery Bradley, but I'm not going to say the offense was good, but Rondo is nowhere near the offensive player CP is, and neither is old KG any where near as effective on offense as Blake.

You also don't need a backup PG. You stagger the minutes so one of Paul or Bledsoe is always on the court, and you have a 3rd PG capable guy just in case of injury.

That was probably the most painful part for me, cause Paul and Bledsoe together on the court was a very interesting combination.

I know Dudley is the big talk, but the Bledsoe to Collison switch was supposed to be defense for offense. Sadly, so far, Collison is of course nowhere near defensively, we knew that, but also worse offensively than Bledsoe last season.

So there are most issues than one right now, but Collison is playing his worst basketball in a couple of seasons, so it's a bit weird on that front too.

tense2
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Who knows for sure, but his FG% of .490 so far this year wouldn't have been too bad, lol. Plus he gets to the FT line and rebounds at an above average rate for the SG position....and the defense. Hmmm.

Agent0
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I wasn't too against paying him either, but with some roster changes. Bledsoe could have been a Ginobili, Harden, etc, but a PG/SG.

My idea was pay him the money, move Crawford, plug in a role player 3/D SG type, or get a SG/SF to start at the 2, so you can move them. Bledsoe then plays about 32 MPG off the bench. 12 MPG as backup PG and then another 20 MPG at SG. The starting SG plays 28 MPG at SG, then if he's a player you want to play more, another 6-8 MPG at SF.

...that was me, but people have different thoughts. Maybe you do a pre-emptive extension at $8-9M/year, and it would work out, especially since you are saving on backup PG money.

Multiple position players off the bench are usually very valuable because of that, and it is the one thing I haven't loved about the players on the bench, they have been single position guys for the most part.

With Ariza, think a roster like:

Paul / Bledsoe

3/D SG / Bledsoe

Ariza / some guy

clipper*joe
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Which was our biggest hole last season. Can't blame the FO for going in that direction.

clipper*joe
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How much of that was actually "shooting"?

tense2
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Don't know, but 49% are going in the hole and I like those results.

Clipperfn4lf
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Dudley pretty much sucks at everything besides a corner three. It honestly hurts to watch him play basketball. Martell Webster would be the perfect player at the 3 position IMO.

jarca
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Monopoly folks probably think Dudley had a "good game" last night

DocHollywood
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Dudley had a spectacular game last night....

austin009009
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dudley really is very sluggish

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