Jared Dudley Performance Discussion Thread (P. 16)

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toohipcliptoslip
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What is it of your own do you hold and do you really hold it in public?

I was watching PT from Charlotte. Did they call him Dudley -Do-Right here? They sure did in Charlotte. When they showed the point totals tha's what they called him.

Agent0
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Okay, so if Dudley could instead of doing a couple of terrible games then random explosion, do something more like 10-12 pts a night with 1-2 three's made, that would be nicer.

Of course it is good to see him play well, but like I said when he first had that nice game a little while back, every dog has it's day, so random good games aren't what it is about. No one is perfectly consistent, but at least some ounce of consistency.

pageC4
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exactly. I would even sacrifice these 20+ point games for a steady 10-12 points.

Flushyriver
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The Bobcats could use a real 3 too. Apparently really desperate to make it to the playoffs before taking back the Hornets name. But I would want a lot in return to move a starter to anyone midseason.

Also apparently the four games before last night was Dudley's longest 3 pointer drought since 2010? You would think he would have a greater offensive output while Redick was out...not a lesser one.

Agent0
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Last season Dudley scored 9+ pts in 48/79 games. 12+ pts in 31/79 games. His average was 10.9 pts, so it is reasonable to expect that about 60% of the time he is within his average range or more of scoring 9-12 pts.

His longest streak without double digits was 6 games in February, but he also played 20 minutes or less in 3 of those games. The next longest was 4 games in November, there was another 3 games in early November, then never more than 1 or 2 games without double digit scoring.

He hit 1 or more three's in 62/79 games, which is 78% of the time, so almost 8/10 games he should be hitting a three.

He had 2+ assists in 50/79 games, he averaged 2.6, 3+ in 33/79 games, 42% of the time, but different team dynamics.

He shot 44.4%+ FG in 38/79 games, 50%+ in 31/79 games, so almost half the time he has a decent FG% and he was over 50% 4/10 games.

He shot 33.3% 3PT+ in 44/79 games and 40%+ 3PT in 39/78 games, so 50% of the time! basically on average every other game he was hitting 40% or more of his 3PT attempts.

This season:

50% FG or greater in 14/34 games (40%, same)

40% 3PT or greater in 12/34 games (35%, big drop from 50% of the time)

8+ pts in 20/34 games (60% of the time is okay)

Two streaks of 4 games without double digits

2+ assists in 20/34 games, 3+ in 5/34 games

1+ 3PTM in 25/34 games

    Problem is that he has shot 25% or less from 3PT in half the games, 17/34 and shot 0% or attempted none (2 games) in 9 games, so 1/4, 1/6 etc isn't okay because you made one

It's these streaks of poor scoring / shooting that are the bigger issue. It's that he's either terrible or decently good, his middle games have disappeared for the most part. He just got off a streak of 4, 0, 0 and 9 pts. The 9 actually wasn't that bad in 23 minutes while getting killed vs Phoenix.

Also if we take better perspective, his 4 game streak early was more like 7. He had one 10 pts game break, bit it was:

7, 2, 9, 2, 10, 0, 6

Consistency has left him, and there are many factors that can cause that, but if he isn't decently consistent, he isn't nearly as valuable to the team.

...and I'm not saying he's the only one, Barnes and Crawford are up suffering from similar fates, but man!

Kingkanyon
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All those Stats, but you left out the Biggest one... He's never shot more than 250 3's, that's half as many shots as Matt Barnes put up last yer, he doesn't take allot of 3's.... He never has, he's probably going to shoot around 600 3's this year. That's a huge Adjustment, especially when your not healthy.

Looks as though he changed his shot a bit last night, his release was way quicker.

tense2
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Huh??....Dudley had 271 3PA's just last year. 3 times in his career he's had +250 3PA's in a year. He won't get close to 600 3PA's this year, LOL.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... eja01.html

Barnes on the other hand has had 2 years where he attempted 300+ 3's....yikes. He should NEVER have more then 200 3PA's a year at the very most.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ema02.html

Agent0
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I'm so confused. He's on pace for 320 this year if he plays 82 games. He shot 270 last season. He has 2 other seasons with 250+ and took 200 in the lockout year.

Did you look at the wrong player?

Barrens took 325 last season. Probably more than a 34.2% shooter and career 33.0% shooter should take, but it was fine. The point about Dudley is consistency,that's what he is struggling with, which yes, many times is related to injuries, but I didn't say it wasn't.

Agent0
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While dealing with right knee tendinitis for much of the season, Jared Dudley has operated at well below peak health. However, after playing through pain and stiffness and utilizing as much downtime as possible for rest, Dudley says he is about "90 percent." "It's hard to improve 100 percent when you're playing," Dudley said. "But it's something that I can work through and definitely go. You're hoping by the All-Star break you get those four or five days where you have nothing and you can focus on that."
"For me, it's how you move laterally defensively," Dudley said when asked how the tendinitis....

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MunoValente
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I thought it was pretty crappy how a lot of fans were throwing him under bus early in the season, he was obviously working hard, toughing it out through an injury and pain to the help team cover for other guys that were hurt and sacrificing his numbers in the process. That is an admirable thing to do, but it was met with mostly criticism. He's got a lot 63% True Shooting in January and his overall numbers are up, so hopefully he's starting to feel better.

Agent0
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Patience is never an easy thing for us fans though, that is certainly true

clipperboy24
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He looked completely lackluster effort wise. I don't know why so many people wanted to deny that. He played for the mode part for crap teams and was decent not ever good. Then he comes here and looks to be not in the best shape and his effort is suspect and he consistently makes bad decisions. That IMO isn't injury related, especially when every few games he showed what it looked when he gave a good effort.

pageC4
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Jared Dudley's situation reminds me of Baron Davis. Like Baron, Dudley has tremendous talent. Both were capable of putting up great offensive numbers one night, and then go completely cold the next. Like Baron too Dudley is also plagued with injury, and it is debatable how much the injury accounted for bad play. Baron was staunchly defended just as Dudley currently is. There are many parallels with Dudley and Davis

letitbled
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I will respectively disagree with you analysis. Dudley and Davis are very different players in every respect. Dudley is a very unselfish player, with not much other then a good stroke when wide open. He has zero athleticism. Baron, on the other hand had a bad outside shot but unbelievable athleticism. Unlike Dudley he had the ability to create for himself and did so to a fault. He was somewhat selfish but had the ability to set up other players when he chose to do so. Dudley really can't do anything but shoot wide open shots. He should be able to do this effectively but there are many players who can do the same. He's an average NBA player.

Agent0
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Yea, Dudley is not THAT good, page might have gotten carried away. Davis had All-Star talent. Dudley can give you elite shooting efficiency and average defense and if you gave him big minutes (35+) in a healthy year give you 14-15 pts, 4-5 reb, 2-3 assists. In 27-30 minutes, more like 10-11 pts, 3-4 rebs, 2 assists, but he's not really any sort of specially talented player where he could be an All-Star or something, or could score 20 any night.

Dudley is an average player who is a really good shooter from the field and plays smart and within himself. Even his injuries have been just this season unlike Baron who had a lot over many seasons, over and over, and a lot due to conditioning issues.

I'm not going to say much about a guys effort or conditioning if a coach never mentions that as an issue cause how can I actually assume to better see that aspect than the coach? I mean there are some things one can argue, but condition and effort is hard to say we see it and no one on the team notices. If Doc had been saying that he needs to get in better shape or give more effort, then sure, but I'm not sure the coaching staff has had an questions about his day to day effort, and Doc hasn't seemed shy about mentioning that when needed.

pageC4
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I'm not talking about them being the same in regards to the type of player they are. Baron was a point guard and Dudley is a small forward. My comparison between the two is stemming from the fact that they are proving to be inconsistent and injury plagued players that are polarizing figures. Like Dudley, Baron also had a similar time here. That Is my comparison, not the style they play or the shooting, passing, details...they are completely different in that regard

CapsNClips
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How much money does Dudley make per year? $3 mil or something, yet nobody really criticized Caron Butler for playing worse than how Dudley is playing now and he got $8 mil a year.

Dudley's playing like a player who makes $3 mil. So what's the problem? Not every player can be a steal for their price.

pageC4
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Butler was called out a lot. he got his share of criticism. And I think Dudley is making about $4,250,000 per year, so you're very close in your guess

MunoValente
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Doc has praised his effort from day one and really even being on the court at all for 30 minutes a game when he probably shouldn't have been playing at all is sign of positive effort. Doc himself has said Dudley probably shouldn't have been playing at the start of they year, Dudley couldn't even fully extend his leg for a while, but he was toughing out because we were so depleted when Barnes and Redick were out.

The reason he looked better some days than others is that his injury would get a little better or flare up from day to day, especially depending on how much rest he was getting, which is part of why his home/road splits are so severe this and why he's particularly bad in back to backs.

With regards to his defense I think a lot of people underrate his defense, he's not a one on one stopper, but he's good everything else, he gets back in transition, makes good decisions on pick and rolls, makes his perimeter rotations to out close shooters, can defend multiple positions and make switches when needed. How he plays on defense isn't sexy, but it is effective and Doc knows this, and a big part of why Doc plays him a lot is that Doc likes and trusts defense.

clipperboy24
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It's his off the ball defense that is the worst part of his game maybe second to his rebounding. Both are effort, positioning and intelligent play.

MunoValente
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Repped High Quality Post

We've jumped from 16th in three point defense last year to 2nd this year. It seems like a real stretch to think we've managed to do that while bringing a guy not making effort or good decisions on his defense, while also playing hurt and trading away out best perimeter defender in the offseason and in process the same guy has managed to trick Doc Rivers into thinking he's a good defender, to point he's brought in on offense/defense switches late in the game.

tense2
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All good points, but good luck in getting some people to comprehend that. It's a mind set issue.

Agent0
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13-14

Home:

10.6 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 1.6 APG, 50.3% FG, 45.2% 3PT

Road:

7.2 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 1.7 APG, 39.2% FG, 25.4% 3PT

Back to back:

8.0 PPG, 1.7 RPG, 1.1 APG, 41.2% FG, 30.3% 3PT

1 day of rest:

10.0 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 2.1 APG, 49.7% FG, 43.5% 3PT

Never really noticed how drastic the difference was. This is pretty interesting because career wise he hasn't had an issues with back to backs or road games.

Career

Career Home:

9.1 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.5 APG, 47.8% FG, 41.0% 3PT

Career Road:

8.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 1.6 APG, 46.4% FG, 39.0% 3PT

Career back to back:

9.8 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.6 APG, 47.4% FG, 40.9% 3PT

Career 1 day of rest:

9.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.5 APG, 47.1% FG, 40.8% 3PT

Interesting observation MunoValente, this production supports your thoughts. He's been pretty consistent career wise in situations where fitness might be an issue, but has a statistically significant drop-off this year in those same situations.

I terms of rebound, I observed in the D.J. thread that despite his low individual numbers, Dudley seems to exert a positive effect on the team rebounding (which is most important) with the main interesting thing being that the exact same lineup but switching Dudley and Barnes have rebounded better with Dudley. It is true that while he can't chase down or athletically get rebounds, he does box out as much or more than anyone on the team and keeps opposition guys off the glass. He's also not bad at tipping out some offensive rebounds even when he can't get them, and those register as a rebound for the player that secures it, not for him.

Might not be as bad on the glass as the statistics this year seem to indicate, and if he can continue to do a lot of the same boxing out but then also get to more loose balls, it should be helpful.

clipperboy24
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^^^ he doesn't box out. Watch him during a game, he does plenty of fake box outs which accomplish nothing but make it look to a casual fan as if he boxed out.

Our perimeter defense is better because of our interior defense with deandre. People know if they get burned off the dribble that dj is inside as well as the overall switch defense system is much better. This allows players to overcommit against outside shots (whether good or bad it's reality).

You can't just look at a stat and assume one thing is contributing to that. You need to look at all potential factors.

Agent0
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What stat are you talking about? The box out stat? They don't track that. Is a fake box out really fake?

If a box out keeps or just discourages an opposing player from going to the offensive glass, then it is doing something positive because the 5% chance, as small as it is that the player could get the rebound if the fake box out wasn't happening is taken away. The point of boxing out isn't just for you to get the rebound, the team leaves a lot of rebounds for DJ to get and Doc pulls them off offensive rebounds for the most part, so most of the players are lower there.

Yes, the defense allows players to aggressively close out on shooters, but if they aren't actually aggressively closing out and closing the space, and if the other guys were rotating, it wouldn't be working. It's hard for Dudley to be part of all the better defensive lineups and be consistently missing rotations and close outs with his off ball defense. Even before that, it's is hard for him to be doing that and Doc still playing him when Barnes for example has been healthy.

Seems very counterintuitive.

CapsNClips
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Do we really want our wing players fighting down low with DJ (best rebounder in NBA) and Blake for rebounds? Or do we want him to sprint to the corner for a fast break 3?

I'm going with the 2nd one.

A_DOG_NAMED_BUD
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I'd be happy if Dudley could score in the 12 to 15 points a game range. All he needs to do is make one or two more 3s a game.

clipperboy24
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Boxing out isn't just done undrneath the rim, most second chance rebounds happen when guys are standing around or don't truly box out for the log rebounds.

If he actually ran the floor well I would agree but be doesn't even do that well. I mean seriously the more things people bring up the more it highlights his flaws and lack of a full focused effort.

jarca
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You guys think dudley is overpaid? I do

pageC4
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This is exactly my hope for him as well. When we brought him in his numbers weren't eluding to him being a great scorer like Griffin or Redick. He showed a high shooting percentage that indicated he was efficient. we still see that now but his lack of attempts is a huge problem. its not for lack of getting the ball either. my wife and I go to all the games and what I notice about him is a fear of failure. He will not take a shot unless he's 100% sure it will be made. so sometimes when he has the ball he will dribble it in a few steps to get better positioning, but by this time defenders come and guard him so rather than shoot an unguarded long 2 he decides to try for positioning and ends up passing the ball to someone else. there is a lot of hesitancy with Dudley.

as you pointed out 12-15 points a game would be ideal, but the difference between his 12-15 point games and his single digit games is how much he hesitates with shots.

MunoValente
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He's paid slightly more than Barnes, but it is 5 years younger, seems about right.

CP3Best
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Since everyone's complaining let's use his last 3 games as an example: 18, 5, 10 - 66.7 % 50% and 40% from 3 respectively. This is what is expected of him, no more no less. He does some other things occasionally offensive rebounds, passes, steals. But he's meshing really well with our team. When others cough cough Reddick cough cough, are having monster nights, he doesn't need and doesn't score so much. the night he had 5, Reddick, COllison, and Griffin combined for like 70 pts altogether. What else do you expect?!

Voyeur
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Yeah he's been solid the last few games. Hitting when open. Basically a good 4th option. Which is perfectly fine. Sometimes JJ or one of the other guys will have an off night and we may need Jared to be our number 2 or 3 guy.

tense2
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He would IF he attempted more shots per game. He's below average for a SF in FGA's the last few years even though he's an above average shooter for his position in FG/3PT% his whole career. This year he's taken 2 less shots game then last season.

Even this season with his injury and inconsistency he's still above average in those depts (.451 & .372). I complained and wished he'd take more shots in games. Maybe Jamal can sell him some of his FGA's per game, as we know he can definitely spare some, LOL.

Agent0
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Yea, he's been doing better lately. 12-15 PPG is too much to expect for his minutes and role, since 12 is probably the upper limit of his average production in his current minutes. In January he's attempting 8.2 FGA and scoring 10.6 pts. Based on his best seasons, at 29 MPG, the expectation would be about ~11-12 PPG on average, so lately he's basically been there.

If he was averaging 14-15 PPG in 29 minutes, that puts him at a different caliber of scorer. That's a Ginobili, James Harden off the bench level of scoring ability that Dudley just does not possess (17-19 pts in 35+ minutes type production). Not sure Dudley can create that many good shots for himself on a nightly basis.

He could be more assertive in some shot opportunities, but since he isn't hurting the offense, it is okay.

Agent0
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Meh, below MLE money for an average player who can start on a team, not much to complain about in terms of price at $4.3M.

At best you could save a couple $100,000 on a contract for a guy with his skils.

Akclipps
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Jared Deadly had good D on Carmelo today 4-22

Kingkanyon
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He did play some great Defense, He wasn't aggressive enough for me today though, but still his defense was incredible.

david
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Sounds like Doc was down on Dudley's team defense. I think he got the message as he rotated better today, and looked less afraid to get into a crowd to fight for the ball.

pageC4
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Jared Dudley out of starting lineup By Arash Markazi ESPNLosAngeles.com DETROIT -- Los Angeles Clippers coach Doc Rivers said he might shake up his starting lineup when he spoke to reporters Monday morning and he didn't waste any time doing just that an hour later. For the first time this season, Jared Dudley found himself out of the starting lineup as he was replaced by Matt Barnes at small forward before Monday's game against the Detroit Pistons. Dudley had started all 42 games this season for the Clippers while Barnes had come off the bench in 23 games while battling various injuries. Rivers hinted at possibly....

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clipperboy24
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^^^This is exactly what I have been saying about his defense... It needs to improve and hasn't been good. I am always surprised with how many defenders he has of his defense, it's just not good.

Agent0
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Dudley at his best is a slightly above average defender, he's an average defender normally. So this average defender who isn't super athletic is playing injured, so what would be the expectation of his level of defense? Probably below average, which is what Dudley has been this year. He's struggled getting low and moving laterally which was something he's done in previous seasons, and the guy is already slow footed enough at his position.

I think there might have been some unrealistic ideas of his capabilities as a player, and especially when he isn't 100% because he's a guy that has to be at 100% to keep up with wing players, and even then he's still a step slow and has to make it up in other area. So now imagine he's not 100%, it's not expected to be pretty.

His major issue defensively has been that he can't handle a first step. He's been too easily and can't recover quickly enough to make himself a presence.

Barnes has been shooting better lately, so him in the starting lineup should be better than the prognosis if this was a little while ago. I do like Doc's comment about his idea of playing well vs Barnes. I think Barnes does need a bit of the DJ mentality in that it is okay if he doesn't score much, but he needs to bring the defense and hustle at a high level every night. He's seemsed to have been too focused on his scoring / shooting in games at times.

MunoValente
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Doc has praised Dudley's defense this year as well. I'm sure there are things Doc would like him to improve, but that likely goes for pretty much everyone, he wants everyone to be their best and while he understands their limitations, if sees something a guy can improve he's after to be honest about it. Despite whatever criticisms or praise Doc has though, Dudley has usually been on the floor when we've needed stops late in the game.

Here are a few positive things Rivers has said him related to defense:

The Clippers came out of a timeout Thursday when rookie small forward Reggie Bullock looked at Dudley and waved him off from guarding Oklahoma City All-Star forward Kevin Durant, one of the NBA's best players.

Clippers Coach Doc Rivers recalled that moment and said he thought Bullock either really likes a challenge or "he's not very smart.

"He should have said, 'Dudley, you take Durant.' That's what I would have done," Rivers said, laughing. "

and

""He's crafty," Rivers said. "I used to look at him at Phoenix and there were certain games he gave Paul problems and I didn't understand how that was possible. But he's just a crafty defender. He's just kind of in the right place.""

DocHollywood
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It's good to experiment when your team has two small forwards making less then starter money. Strange though that Doc does this right now. Dudley was playing badly earlier in the season when the knee was at it's worst. Now he's playing better defense and shooting lights out. He brought his 3pt% from 32 up to 38.3 in just the last five weeks! I think it's good to allow for his knee to get to 100%, but the timing of this is beyond me. Doc should have sat him once Barnes came back from the eye injury. Notice how well Dudley is staying in front of his man on defense right now? Drastically improved. Paul George is lighting everybody in the league up right now, but Jared's been playing noticeably better overall. Barnes will always be faster but Dudley will always be a better shooter- take your pick.

Silasie
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^

Maybe Doc was giving Matt a chance to get into things after coming back from the injury before he got him to start.

clipperboy24
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Even with his defense being "better" it's clearly not enough. Jared Dudley may be crafty at times and make memorable defensive plays but his overall defense is weak, especially team defense.

Kingkanyon
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No it isn't, his defense has been fine, no better than Barnes and no worse. Only reason Doc made the switch is because Dudley isn't being aggressive enough on a nightly basis, his shooting has improved as the year's gone on and he's shooting 40% from three this month, he's just passing up allot of shots and then turning the ball over afterwards, heck he's playing like a bench player so that;s were Doc put him. But in no means is he playing bad.

To me he's playing fine, but Doc probably want's more than fine for a starter.

LobAngelesBlakers
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mind=blown. lol I didn't even consider that

clipperboy24
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The only thing is doc specifically mentioned his defense isn't up to par.

DocHollywood
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Exactly. He's playing fine relative to what he's paid which is all I expect. For reference, 4.25mil puts Dudley at #30 on the list of highest paid small forwards. If we want sf to be a strong position on this team we must pay for it.

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