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namzug
Post Subject: RE: Jared Dudley Performance Discussion Thread Post ID: 431756by namzug » Jan 24, 2014 - 10:31 AM PST
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Yeah, I think if the right deal came along I'd be ok with it. It would probably have to be a package deal to really get a good player. Maybe like a Reggie and Duds for Korver or Chandler.

I really like Reggie and actually want him to get more minutes at the 2. I always feel like we are small in every matchup at the 2 spot. Our best matchup was against Dallas lining up across from Ellis.



                
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tense2
Post ID: 431759by tense2 » Jan 24, 2014 - 11:09 AM PST
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This. The discussion was/is "Doc doesn't play rookies" and obviously no matter how you spin it, he does/has...when the time and the rookie warrants it.

That is the POINT. Well done Sir.

                
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Diamond909
Post Subject: RE: Jared Dudley Performance Discussion Thread Post ID: 431826by Diamond909 » Jan 24, 2014 - 05:10 PM PST
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Hope fully, reggie can get more minutes just to see how well it plays out on both ends of the floor.

                
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Agent0
Post Subject: RE: Jared Dudley Performance Discussion Thread Post ID: 432096by Agent0 » Jan 25, 2014 - 01:20 PM PST
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clipperboy, you get on people about stats (unless that wasn't you), and many times getting at them for an actual proper use, so you should be even more vigilant about your use and putting context and understanding sample size.

Dudley is shooting 52.2% on 2PT shots 83/159 Dudley for his career has shot 51.3% on 2PT shots with 2113 attempts

Bullock is shooting 52.9% on 2PT shots 9/17

If Bullock misses two 2PT shots next game he's now shooting 9/19 and is at 47%. If he makes one, he's the third best 2PT converter after Hollins and DJ percentage wise, now does anyone believe that to mean anything? You can't expand stats from very small sample sizes, they just can't tell us anything except for what the player did over that sample. They can't be expanded to mean more, used to predict or make conclusions. Any of you guys worked in so e field where research analysis is needed? They always ask something like "does the researcher make assumptions or conclusions beyond the limit of the study?" We need to avoid that.

For example, a small sample size would have said Aminu's hot shooting from 3PT range to start his rookie season meant he was a good 3PT shooter. As the sample size increased and has his career has progressed, we've seen that he isn't even an average 3PT shooter.

If Bullock is going to play, no argument for him should start anywhere from his percentages. Any argument should start with how comfortable does he look on the floor? How well is he making his rotations? Is he in the right spots offensively and defensively? After about 100 3PA and like 150+ FGA, we can start to get some idea, though still not a full picture of what his shooting ability / percentages should look like for the season.

Again, for example, Darius Morris has shot 66.7% from 2PT range but is 4/6. We can't start saying anything from that. Expand the sample size to his career 204 2PT shots and he shoots 42.4%. So over a season, we would expect him in the low 40's range, not anywhere near 60%.

Now, in the same line, no negative argument against Bullock should be based on his percentages either because it's over 178 minutes. He's take 45 FGA and 28 3's. Chris Paul shot 29.7% 3PT over his first 20 games / 74 3PT attempts this season and is now at 35.6% with 14 more games where he shot 45.5% 3PT on 43 attempts. If Bullock goes 2/3 from 3PT range the next time he plays, he's at 33.3% shooting. Now, of course, if he goes 0/1 too, he's down to 27.6%, but you get the point, I hope. We can't make predictions or conclusions from small sample sizes, and even a 20 game size isn't fully sufficient when we know a guys history (Paul is not an <30% 3PT shooter).

So then why are we concluding on Mullens after only 157 minutes? Well he isn't a rookie and has 2 previous years with over 2800 minutes where he showed himself as a poor offensive and defensive player. If he was a rookie, it's a whole different situation, but we know his history over large samples, and unless he's showing in practice that he has drastically improved, then there's nothing to see.

Stats need context, and debating with stats isn't about dismissing any that disagree with you, it's about understanding and getting the full picture. I see some people who keep whining about stats when it doesn't fit into their pre-conceived notions, but are quick to post stats whenever it is something they like, and then dismiss them when it isn't. That's not how it's meant to work. You can't be lazy with it, ask why? How? Look at them in context. Do that or critically watch and analyze 1230 NBA games a season, each more than once so you catch all the nuances and details. Of course then you might have to quit your job and quit life since if you approximate an hour a game if you take out stoppages (it is more I know), you're left with 51.25 full days of watching basketball over a season to go over it once. So if you're analyzing the second time, 102.5 full days, which is actually a full 3 months and 12 days of life. So in other words, not actual possible unless you are a cyborg.


With that said, I have no issues with Reggie getting minutes, but I'd actually like to see him at SG which is more possible now with Jamal playing PG at times. Later on of course with J.J. and Jamal! why would you take either out to play Reggie? Lol

                
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ClippersDA
Post Subject: RE: Jared Dudley Performance Discussion Thread Post ID: 432103by ClippersDA » Jan 25, 2014 - 02:35 PM PST
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Dudley is not a good fit in la for whatever reason. I don't think he'd care that much if he got traded, he is slowly falling further and further down the rotation.

                
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MunoValente
Post ID: 432104by MunoValente » Jan 25, 2014 - 03:07 PM PST
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He's actually doing pretty good when we play in LA, his home/road splits are getting more and more severe though. He's averaging 10.6 points with a 64% TS at home, but only 6.5 points on a 46% TS on the road. He's never had anywhere near as severe home road splits during his career and his home stats aren't all that far off what he did last year.

So why would he be playing so much worse on the road? Is he getting some kind of treatment for his knee at home he can't get on the road? Is he having trouble sleeping when he travels? Is he having confidence issues? I don't know really know, but hopefully someone in the organization does and is working on it. Doc did just say last week though that Dudley still isn't fully healthy though and wants to rest him more, but then just the game before last played him 30 minutes anyway.

I think it's obvious he needs to rest more, unfortunately our other SF have been bad, Doc's statements all season with have basically been that he's struggling, he's not healthy, but that we need him so we're playing him anyway. Hopefully Barnes can continue with what he did last night and carry the load for the next month or so giving Dudley some time get himself together.

I wouldn't mind if we just sat him completely tonight though, the way the Spurs will sometimes rest players on back to backs.

                
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kjavis
Post Subject: RE: Jared Dudley Performance Discussion Thread Post ID: 432111by kjavis » Jan 25, 2014 - 04:02 PM PST
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He'll be deadweight with the starters, Reggie is at best same as duds, he is a spot up shooter that doesn't shoot that well, what we need is a long athletic wing that can slash create shots for himself and others, long term that is what the clippers really need

                
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clipperboy24
Post Subject: RE: Jared Dudley Performance Discussion Thread Post ID: 432112by clipperboy24 » Jan 25, 2014 - 04:04 PM PST
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So then everyone who has been saying reggie sucks and has proven to not deserve time can't really say that since he doesn't have enough of a sample size to properly criticize?

                
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clipperboy24
Post ID: 432113by clipperboy24 » Jan 25, 2014 - 04:09 PM PST
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Bullock has a wingspan of 6'9" 3 inches less than Lebron and a standing reach 3 inches less than Lebron. He also is a solid athlete much more so than Dudley. It's at least worth a shot, btw he has proven to be a good shooter in a few games already.

                
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cleepers
Post Subject: RE: Jared Dudley Performance Discussion Thread Post ID: 432117by cleepers » Jan 25, 2014 - 04:33 PM PST
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Doc has made fairly disparaging comments about BOTH Dudley and Barnes' recent play in the last week. If Reggie were showing him anything great in practice, I have no doubt Doc would be giving him bigger and better minutes.

I'll trust the judgement of the guy with the championship ring and the $35,000,000 coaching contract - who watches Bullock play every single day - over any fan's projection of what they hope a late first-round rookie can bring.

If he isn't absolutely demolishing our "terrible" SF's in practice, he's unlikely to do much against the LeBrons, Durants and Georges of the league at this point in his career.

                
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Diamond909
Post Subject: RE: Jared Dudley Performance Discussion Thread Post ID: 432119by Diamond909 » Jan 25, 2014 - 04:51 PM PST
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Looking at how dud all ready been replaced these couple of games by barns says a lot. If Reggies get at least some of Dud's, minutes I wouldn't be surpised but glad of the change. Dud is a okay defender and seeing how he so called handled "melo" smh Anthony is known to jack up shots and fg aren't good anyway. I'd say Dud has a little to do with that. Reggie can get better in defending because of youth and speed. Dud is just too darn slow

                
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DocHollywood
Post ID: 432522by DocHollywood » Jan 25, 2014 - 11:40 PM PST
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Exactly. Repped

                
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CapsNClips
Post Subject: RE: Jared Dudley Performance Discussion Thread Post ID: 432592by CapsNClips » Jan 26, 2014 - 03:50 PM PST
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Can somebody explain to me what the point of that Jared Dudley commercial was during the halftime of the Lakers vs Knicks game?

Basically it was a minute long of just him eating food and saying how much he loves food. I'm so confused. What were they selling???

                
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clippyclip
Post Subject: RE: Jared Dudley Performance Discussion Thread Post ID: 432594by clippyclip » Jan 26, 2014 - 03:53 PM PST
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Next we'll be seeing Mullens on a Worthington Ford commercial. Hopefully as a full-time job.

                
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CP3Heliflopter
Post ID: 432599by CP3Heliflopter » Jan 26, 2014 - 04:04 PM PST
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They had him in the commercial since he is our chunkiest player! Razz

                
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tense2
Post ID: 432600by tense2 » Jan 26, 2014 - 04:10 PM PST
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LOL. Brilliant.

                
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Icecoldclipper
Post Subject: RE: Jared Dudley Performance Discussion Thread Post ID: 432613by Icecoldclipper » Jan 26, 2014 - 05:49 PM PST
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I want to see the commercial!lol

                
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jarca
Post ID: 432882by jarca » Jan 28, 2014 - 12:16 AM PST
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What what......

                
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ClippersRise
Post Subject: RE: Jared Dudley Performance Discussion Thread Post ID: 432883by ClippersRise » Jan 28, 2014 - 01:23 AM PST
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I think it was a commercial to promote San Diego and it's diversity with foods or something. Make you want to vacation there

                
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ClippersRise
Post Subject: RE: Jared Dudley Performance Discussion Thread Post ID: 432884by ClippersRise » Jan 28, 2014 - 01:25 AM PST
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I guess they were calling him chunky. Chunky=Being surrounded by delicious food hahaha

                
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prokreation
Post Subject: RE: Jared Dudley Performance Discussion Thread Post ID: 432949by prokreation » Jan 28, 2014 - 04:41 PM PST
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Jared Dudley is a HUGE DUD this year. Bottom line, he can't hit an open shot. He sucks this year.

his defense sucks too.

Trade Dudley, Ryan Hollins, Willle Green, Byron Mullens, two second round draft picks, Cash, and Clippercussion for OMER ASIK.

                
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Dunkathon
Post ID: 432954by Dunkathon » Jan 28, 2014 - 05:08 PM PST
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You know Asik will refuse to play unless he has a starting job, right? Do you want to bench DJ now?

                
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toohipcliptoslip
Post ID: 432978by toohipcliptoslip » Jan 28, 2014 - 06:22 PM PST
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Isn't Dudley and performance an oxymoron?

                
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Agent0
Post ID: 432984by Agent0 » Jan 28, 2014 - 06:51 PM PST
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I'm not sure the problem with Dudley is an inability to hit open shots. That's the only thing he's done as he's 3rd on the team in 3PT%. The problem is that he's been a step slower with the effect being seen defensively and on the glass. He's second last on the team in DRB/36. Jamal is last. Redick is 3rd last, so he's rebounding like a below average rebounding SG.

That's why Jackson was useless. He was rebounding (3.4 rebs/36) like Dudley, shooting like Jamison (worse), and with the shot selection of Barnes. He seemed like he still had some ways to go to actually be productive on the court.

Hedo is looking a lot better. It will be interesting to see where Hedo is 20 games in.

7 games and 86 minutes in, so this would be like a 4 game production rate sample size for someone playing 20 MPG. Hedo per 36 is at: 8 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.3 TPG, 38.9 FG% 50.0 3PT%, .481 TS%

If he was on a 10 day, he would certainly have earned himself more time. Of course the rebounding will go down because those numbers make him the second best defensive rebounder on the team with 8.0 per 36. He probably won't shoot 50% 3PT, but his scoring efficiency could go up to the 53-55 range, and he could hit 35%+ 3PT. He could possibly give a per 36 rate of production of: 10-11 pts, 5-6 rebs, 3 assists which isn't bad if he gets there.

                
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namzug
Post Subject: RE: Jared Dudley Performance Discussion Thread Post ID: 433339by namzug » Jan 30, 2014 - 10:39 AM PST
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I agree with the perspective on Hedo. I have been very hesitant to give him any credit, but he keeps doing well.

The big thing that bothers me about Dudley, other than the lack of a good to great perimeter defender on the entire team (not counting CP3 when he is focused on D, but he does to much elsewhere for that to be his focus) or Dudley's individual lack of rebounding (he's never been a good rebounder, making things worse this has been his worst year rebounding wise); is that we don't have a true small forward to bring out in crunch time. I thought ok, either him or Barnes can be hot during the game and be brought out during the 4th, but it hasn't worked out that way all season. We run that small line up, but I'm sure that we would like to be able to bring out a bigger wing player than Jamal if we play OKC, Blazers, Houston, just about anybody else we are likely to meet in the playoffs.

                
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MunoValente
Post ID: 433360by MunoValente » Jan 30, 2014 - 01:19 PM PST
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Turkoglu's rebounding rate has been really good so far, it's a career high by a mile and almost double what he was doing the last few years. His turnover rate is also way down from the last several years. If he can keep both those things up he's a real asset. Maybe he's come to terms with not being as good of playermaker in old age and so he's going to work on the other parts of his game.

The lack of a reliable gritty SF seems to be more of a problem with Barnes than Dudley, as I think expectations with Dudley was more low mistake efficiency player while Barnes would be more of the dirty work guy and we would switch them around as needed. There is 900 post thread about how disappointing Dudley is, but Barnes has been just as disappointing. Both guys were coming off 3 straight years with PER around 15, and both are around 9 this year.

                
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wessleejr
Post Subject: RE: Jared Dudley Performance Discussion Thread Post ID: 433363by wessleejr » Jan 30, 2014 - 01:30 PM PST
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Wow we are praising now Turk, when Doc sign him the expert poster said he is old, he is slow, he is waste,o]' of money. lol!

                
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Icecoldclipper
Post Subject: RE: Jared Dudley Performance Discussion Thread Post ID: 433377by Icecoldclipper » Jan 30, 2014 - 02:58 PM PST
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Dudley played a very good game last night and I think his confidence is building with the unit. Doc has to tweak some things with the second unit against the Wizards if felt like Dudley was the third option behind Crawford and Green. We need Dudley aggressive with that second unit getting his mid-range game is coming along.

                
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clipperboy24
Post Subject: RE: Jared Dudley Performance Discussion Thread Post ID: 433906by clipperboy24 » Jan 31, 2014 - 11:44 AM PST
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So can we at least all agree a better rebounding sf would be very helpful to this team? Bullock fits that and the shooting need perfect

                
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MunoValente
Post ID: 433940by MunoValente » Jan 31, 2014 - 01:30 PM PST
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We have Matt Barnes. He is currently starting and playing most of the minutes.

Maybe Bullock can try to beat Willie Green minutes, which has he failed to do.

                
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ClippersDA
Post Subject: RE: Jared Dudley Performance Discussion Thread Post ID: 433944by ClippersDA » Jan 31, 2014 - 01:49 PM PST
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I can't stand barnes missing wide open layups. The worst finisher ever. Dudley has been a disappointment. It's like that position is cursed. Maybe Paul George cursed us for passing on him?

                
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clipperboy24
Post ID: 433945by clipperboy24 » Jan 31, 2014 - 01:49 PM PST
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Bullock is recovering from an actual injury, maybe you forgot? I guess if the name isn't Dudley an injury means nothing.

                
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MunoValente
Post ID: 433948by MunoValente » Jan 31, 2014 - 02:02 PM PST
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Well once he's fully recovered maybe he can try to beat out Willie Green for some minutes, I'm not one demanding he be inserted into the line up.

                
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clipperboy24
Post ID: 433950by clipperboy24 » Jan 31, 2014 - 03:10 PM PST
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But you are the one criticizing him saying he isn't even able to beat out Willie green when he was actually put on the IR. Dudley's injury is still a vague excuse

                
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MunoValente
Post ID: 433952by MunoValente » Jan 31, 2014 - 03:22 PM PST
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So is Reggie still hurt or not? If he's healthy there are minutes for him to take from Green, if he's making any kind of impression at practice at all. If he's not healthy why are you saying be given minutes over a guy who is clearly ahead of Green? Green played 15 minutes yesterday and was complete crap even compared to Dudley and Barnes, why didn't Bullock get those minutes?

                
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Agent0
Post ID: 433964by Agent0 » Jan 31, 2014 - 04:25 PM PST
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Beggars can't be choosers. Our comparison is Jamison and Mullens

I don't think out biggest need at SF is rebounding. Barnes can rebound, it is consistency. Reggie doesn't bring that so far, but he's still adjusting and hasn't played enough for us to fully say, but Reggie is small and overmatched vs most SF's. The internal solution to SF issues would be improvement from the guys currently getting minutes. Outside of that we'd have to look externally.

                
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chonkyfire24
Post Subject: RE: Jared Dudley Performance Discussion Thread Post ID: 433976by chonkyfire24 » Jan 31, 2014 - 07:44 PM PST
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not trading for trevor ariza last year was a huge mistake.

                
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pageC4
Post ID: 434310by pageC4 » Feb 02, 2014 - 11:25 AM PST
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There is a line of thinking "disrupting chemistry." In this line of thinking people assume that making a change is going to affect the success of the team negatively. Last year the Clippers did not capitalize on trading away aging wings because of fear of disrupting chemistry. This year we have some players that are not pulling their weight: Dudley, Mullens, Jamison, Hollins, and Green to name a few. Like last year and the years before that people do not want to make changes. But the past few years have been a cautionary tale for anyone looking to learn from history. Baron Davis, Chauncey Billups, and Jared Dudley are players that have been the subject of trade rumors in the past. They all hold something in common in that we traded them too late or currently have them on the roster because we fear disrupting the chemistry of this team, but there is an old saying "you keep doing what you've been doing and yuo're going to keep getting what you've been getting." The Clippers need to be better at trading away players when they aren't pulling their weight. Otherwise the history of this team will continue to be what it has been: first or second round exits. By the trade deadline our season will be determined. If we don't get a better small forward and backup big we are a second round out. And if it seems like I'm overreacting look at our record against the elite. Those are the teams that we will face in the second round and beyond

                
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clipperboy24
Post ID: 434319by clipperboy24 » Feb 02, 2014 - 12:43 PM PST
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Repped. If we were first in the league and running all cylinders I would agree with the chemistry comment. We clearly have big holes and weaknesses on the team. So just keep the strengths and tweak with the weaknesses. Worst case scenario it stays as a weakness.

Dudley, hollins, and Mullens all need to go.

                
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MunoValente
Post Subject: RE: Jared Dudley Performance Discussion Thread Post ID: 434329by MunoValente » Feb 02, 2014 - 01:00 PM PST
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We would get basically nothing in a trade for an injured slumping player and a few minimum salary players. We need to add a player or two, but realistically our assets are limited.

It's better than Spurs record against those teams.

                
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pageC4
Post ID: 434385by pageC4 » Feb 02, 2014 - 06:46 PM PST
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will that save us from elimination against elite? no, that simply means san antonio also will be going fishing just like we will at that rate. our loss record against the elite should not be brushed off our FO should work get better players and correct this trend

                
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pageC4
Post ID: 434386by pageC4 » Feb 02, 2014 - 06:48 PM PST
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thanks man. just don't understand how a 4th place standing and a horrible 2-6 record against the elite would make people scared of improving this squad

                
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MunoValente
Post ID: 434388by MunoValente » Feb 02, 2014 - 07:10 PM PST
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I don't think anyone is scared of improving the squad, it's more that a lot the suggested moves are either completely unrealistic or wouldn't do much of anything to help.

If an injured, slumping Dudley and minimum salary garbage can get us a good player that's great but it seems unlikely. Maybe we can find someone who want to dumps salary for Dudley and expiring filler, but it would need to fairly long big contract, considering how many years are left on Dudley's contract. Maybe someone like Gibson would work, but otherwise I don't know if they are a lot of good fits for what we have to offer.

As for the 2-6 record, some of the losses are without Paul and 5 of the losses are on second night of road back to backs. If you include the Rockets who aren't really much worse than Portland our record looks better as well.

                
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cleepers
Post ID: 434390by cleepers » Feb 02, 2014 - 07:14 PM PST
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Just who do you think would want to trade for that motley crew?

And what do you suppose we could get back for them with their value at an all-time low?

It's ridiculous how people here are demanding that Doc bring in a high-quality backup center - oh, AND a starting small-forward - but all they're willing to do is trade scrubs or sell low on historically valuable players.

It's starting to read like a lakers board on here. SMH.

roll

                
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cleepers
Post ID: 434392by cleepers » Feb 02, 2014 - 07:34 PM PST
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Exactly. Plus a majority of them were on the road. The reason those teams are "elite" is because they protect home-court.

1 loss to Portland - AWAY 1 loss to San Antonio - AWAY 1 loss to Oklahoma - AWAY 1 loss to Miami - AWAY 2 losses to Indiana - HOME & AWAY

We protected our own home-court against SAS and OKC, we've yet to host POR and MIA (and still, we'll be without CP3), we barely lost in Portland (OT) and the home game against Indy was close late into the 4th Q.

That 2-6 record means nothing.

                
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Agent0
Post Subject: RE: Jared Dudley Performance Discussion Thread Post ID: 434394by Agent0 » Feb 02, 2014 - 08:56 PM PST
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Yea, we really need to stop with the lack of context stuff. 2-6 record isn't in a vacuum, so we can't just say it without any explanation. Road games, and we played Indiana and San Antonio without Paul. We really expecting to be going on the road against elite teams and consistently beating them?

                
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jarca
Post ID: 434399by jarca » Feb 02, 2014 - 09:36 PM PST
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If Kwame for Gasol can happen then maybe Mullen for Chandler hahahaha

                
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Agent0
Post Subject: RE: Jared Dudley Performance Discussion Thread Post ID: 434401by Agent0 » Feb 02, 2014 - 10:09 PM PST
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Lol, that would be hilarious, but even Kwame for Gasol had picks involved, no picks here to give until like 2017

                
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kjavis
Post ID: 434421by kjavis » Feb 03, 2014 - 03:08 AM PST
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Missing 2 loss to GS, 1 loss to phx, 1 loss to hawks they are all PO teams, our record against winning teams this season is pretty bad, a champion team needs to be able to win on the road and unless we miracously get 2nd seed there is no way we can go deep in the PO without winning on the road

                
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MunoValente
Post ID: 434424by MunoValente » Feb 03, 2014 - 08:36 AM PST
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So you're going to count Atlanta but not Houston, Dallas, Toronto? We're around .500 against winning teams, but with an uncommonly high amount of the games being road back to backs and a big pile injuries.

One reason I'm not concerned about the road losses against the top 5 or 6 teams is that all five were second night back to backs and those don't exist in playoffs. We've basically only lost one game to elite teams in conditions we'll see in the playoffs (home loss to Indiana). Our home wins against the Thunder, Spurs and Rockets on the other hand were after days off for those teams, so they were more like conditions we would see in the playoffs.

                
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