50/50 to me. There was definitely contact between Rubio's hand and CP3's face, but it seemed like CP3 had already decided to hit the deck when it occurred, hence "embellishment".
I think the warnings/fines should be reserved for when no foul occurs (like the Harden one). Sometimes, a player has to overdo his reaction a little just to get the refs to notice. Blake used to get butchered in the paint with no call at all. If he'd embellished his reactions he would have shot twice as many FT's and never been warned.