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clipper*joe
Post ID: 418634by clipper*joe » Dec 04, 2013 - 10:34 PM PST
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That's a bit misleading. The Clippers have been playing below average offenses.

  1. Indiana 19th- went over their average (97.8)
  2. Kings 21st- went over their average (97.9)
  3. Knicks 26th- kept them under their average (92.8)
  4. Chicago 23rd- Kept them below their average (94.5)
  5. Kings 21st- went over their average

    Aside from the free falling teams, we haven't kept anyone below their averages.

we're also currently 9th worst defense, not middle of the pack.

http://www.nba.com/statistics/sortable_ ... 1.html#top



                
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clipper*joe
Post ID: 418635by clipper*joe » Dec 04, 2013 - 10:37 PM PST
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Not a bad idea. having the 9th worst defense with the the second best offense isn't a recipe for success.

                
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Voyeur
Post ID: 418636by Voyeur » Dec 04, 2013 - 10:38 PM PST
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Isn't Indiana more man-to-man than we are?

                
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pageC4
Post ID: 418639by pageC4 » Dec 04, 2013 - 11:10 PM PST
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we may be beyond Lionel Hollins' help. we need a trade. or bring in some players that can bring defense. doc was already considered a good defensive mind he and even hollins can only do so much

                
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what_up_clipnation83
Post Subject: RE: Clippers Vs. Hawks Official Game Thread 2013-12-04 Post ID: 418640by what_up_clipnation83 » Dec 04, 2013 - 11:30 PM PST
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Aminu had 16 points and 21 rebounds with 3 steals......wish we had him instead of dudley

                
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david
Post Subject: RE: Clippers Vs. Hawks Official Game Thread 2013-12-04 Post ID: 418642by david » Dec 05, 2013 - 12:20 AM PST
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UGLY defense AND shooting by the Clippers tonight. The 3's were not falling, and the defense allowed just way too many baskets in the paint. Blake had good #'s but Milsap certainly outplayed him tonight. With BG's quickness, he should not have allowed Milsap to score so many layups 1-on-1, and his buddy DeAndre Jordan didn't exactly offer much support in terms of rotating to help. DJ had good rebounding #'s, but certainly not a good game overall with too many balls fumbled away, TO's, & missed all of his FT's.

CP was cold early, but did a solid job in the second half leading the offense, but towards the end, he go burned badly helping off of Korver. Jamal Crawford- not a good game overall either with turnovers & too many missed shots. Willie started of cold but he came out in the second half and made some good plays on both ends. Collison played hard and was one of the few Clippers who did a good job overall. Jared Dudley- what can I say- another disappointing performance.

Going forward, the starters must do a better job as a unit in maintaining focus & intensity on both ends of the floor from the get-go. Playing uphill all game long because of a bad first quarter is a very difficult way to win on the road.

                
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Agent0
Post ID: 418643by Agent0 » Dec 05, 2013 - 12:23 AM PST
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Opponent PPG as a measure of defense I think where out difference arises is that you are using PPG. Realistically, that just isn't an accurate measure of defense or of opponent offensive ability because of pace.

If I'm playing a game where someone get's 10 chances to score and they score 8 times (80%), and then I play a game where they get 15 chances to score and they score 11 times (73%), I defended better the second time despite them scoring more times. They had more chances, but I stopped them 27% of the time as opposed to only 20% of the time the first time.

Similarly, if you score 1.05 pts/possession, in a 90 possession game you will score 95 pts in that game, in a 97 possession game, you will score 102 pts. The opposition didn't play better defense in the first or worse in the second game, the defense was equally as good, one game was just faster than the other.

The effect of pace It's the myth of the slower paced team being good on defense, and the faster paced team being bad. A basic concept that people shove into the pile of "it's just number crunching" or whatever else people say to ignore some basic analysis.

Minnesota is a perfect example. They are the second fastest team in the league. The play an average of 98.3 possessions / game. The slowest team in the league is Memphis and they play 89.9 possessions / game on average. So there's a difference of 8.4 possessions in the average game. Most people would assume based on opponent PPG (and Memphis' history), Memphis 95.6 pts, Minnesota 101.8 pts that Memhpis defends better. Might not be so true.

Minnesota gives up 1.03 pts/possession, Memphis gives up 1.052 pts/possession. Minnesota defends better, but there are more possessions in their games, so they give up 101.8 pts/game while Memphis only gives up 95.6 pts/game. If Minnesota played the same pace as Memphis, they would actually give up 92.6 pts/game. If Memphis sped up their pace to Minnesota's level, they would give up 103.4 pts/game.

Clippers defense The league average is 1.045 pts/possession given up. The Clippers are currently 16th in opponent Ortg, so a middle of the pack defense, giving up just a bit more than the average with 1.053 pts/possession.

A teams defensive ranking is based on how you do against the whole league. So you are correct, playing less potent offenses improved the Drtg (well you were referring to PPG, but that is okay). That is what should happen on average. The opposite should also happen, playing the good offenses will make your defense look worse.

Indiana is the league's best defense, very good, but they gave up 106.2 pts/100 to LAC. Bad defense against the average team that only scores 104.5 pts/100, that's almost 2 pts/100 better, but good defense against a Clippers team that scores 110.1 pts/100. That's almost 4 pts/100 less than their average. If they played the Clippers every game this season and over the average of those games, they would be the 22nd ranked defense in the league. Defending a very good offense better than the average team might still mean they are scoring at a rate better than the average team. That's why they are a top offense. If you could hold them to what you hold the average team to consistently, then they are just an average offense.

The Clippers have defensive issues, but the terrible Drtg was also due to playing a lot of good teams early. As the opponents are balancing out, so is the defensive ranking. Similarly for Indiana, their defense has been legendary, but their opponents have not been that great, so as they play more good teams, they will still be great, but their defensive rating will not look as crazy.

                
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Agent0
Post ID: 418644by Agent0 » Dec 05, 2013 - 12:34 AM PST
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Grass isn't really greener. Aminu has given up shooting three's, so people would complain about his lack of floor spacing, especially next to Blake.

There would be complaints about how he's only shooting 48% from the FT line and how he isn't a scoring threat. Aminu averages 5.5 PPG in 21.9 MPG, (9.0 pts/36). He is inefficient as a scorer with .516 TS%, but not bad as an offensive player because he has reduced his turnovers and grabs offensive rebounds well.

I did want him in the summer, but as a backup SF/PF and in place of Barnes. I also wanted him to be drilled like crazy into becoming a spot up corner 3PT shooter because he has the skill set to be a great utility defensive, floor spacing SF/PF. Great rebounder too, but let's not pretend there would be wide-spread contentment with Aminu starting at SF on this team.

                
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ClipperDodger1214
Post Subject: RE: Clippers Vs. Hawks Official Game Thread 2013-12-04 Post ID: 418645by ClipperDodger1214 » Dec 05, 2013 - 12:56 AM PST
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Finally got to see some of the highlights, man we looked bad tonight. Just letting Korver shoot 3's left and right. We badly need Barnes back asap.

And we have a game in Memphis tomorrow. Yikes.

                
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clipper*joe
Post Subject: RE: Clippers Vs. Hawks Official Game Thread 2013-12-04 Post ID: 418646by clipper*joe » Dec 05, 2013 - 12:57 AM PST
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Not true at all. Without all the data, not just stats, it proves nothing. The more shots you take at a less efficient clip could just mean it was more about bad shot selection than it was about defense. You take that number and ASSUME it had to do with defense...But how do you know? You don't. By the same token, shooting 10 times and making 80% of the shots can also mean that the defense is limiting them to less opportunities, making the opposing team use most of the clock, while taking advantage on the other end. That's where stats kinda blind people. Just because this stat says this, it doesn't automatically mean that. Using PPG avg up against your team kinda tells you where you're at based on their offensive output. That cuts through all the mumbo jumbo, pace, and any other stat that really just says how efficient the other team is on offense without really knowing what factors into that.

/ sorry, I can't address all your post being that you can only quote 300 words.

                
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clipper*joe
Post ID: 418648by clipper*joe » Dec 05, 2013 - 01:07 AM PST
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That's a myth? I thought it was more about being a half court / grind it out/older slower paced team. I never considered the Lakers from seasons past as a defensive Juggernaut. They were just slow and bad on defense. I agree, it comes down to basic analysis along with the eye test to see where slower paced teams fit in.

                
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clipper*joe
Post ID: 418650by clipper*joe » Dec 05, 2013 - 01:27 AM PST
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That's ok with you? lol. A bit condescending but I'll let that pass. Anyway, me pointing out that your statement was a bit misleading is spot on no matter what stat I used. That's my whole point. You looked at the Drtg and came to your conclusion that we got "better" over the last 5 games. I watched all the games up to now and I knew that was wrong. What did i do? I went old school and actually researched further into that claim based on the "eye test". I crossed reference stats and knew there was a simple, yet, logical explanation. We played teams poor offensive teams in that span. Yet, we couldn't keep most of them at their PPG average. And yes, the numbers will change based on competition cause even the PPG stat is an evolving stat that changes game to game. and as of today, there are only 8 other teams giving up more points per game than us. So you're telling me that we're in the middle of the pack when we are giving up that much? Only reason why we arne't losing more games is cause our PPG...Yes, PPG is the second best in the league. But hold on...Watching today's game, do you think the hawks played good defense on us? Or do you think we just missed a ton of open looks? they kept us well below our average. I think we lost today not because they defended well, but because no one was hitting open looks. But guess what? ATL's Drtg is going to go up now and we'll be talking about how they're getting better defensively. see what i did there?

                
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Steady818
Post Subject: RE: Clippers Vs. Hawks Official Game Thread 2013-12-04 Post ID: 418658by Steady818 » Dec 05, 2013 - 02:36 AM PST
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20 games in and this was not at all what i expected from this team. things need to be figured out during this road trip and we need to come out with a winning record esp. considering the competition is fairly weak during this trip. the defense needs a definite improvement, its really unacceptable

                
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Silasie
Post Subject: RE: Clippers Vs. Hawks Official Game Thread 2013-12-04 Post ID: 418660by Silasie » Dec 05, 2013 - 06:36 AM PST
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I watched the 1st 3 quarters of the game and then went to bed. An uphill battle all game that I couldn't see us turning around. So many different things seemed to be not working. We did well to be only 10 behind really. Depressing. I just hope it fires them up to face the Enemy tonight.

                
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clipperboy24
Post Subject: RE: Clippers Vs. Hawks Official Game Thread 2013-12-04 Post ID: 418662by clipperboy24 » Dec 05, 2013 - 08:05 AM PST
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Wow that was a terrible game. Outside of the 7-0 scoring run in the 3rd it was horrible. The team looked like it had never played together on offense and defense. Cp3 did a terrible job directing and leading the offense. Our defense also looked all over the place (not in a good way).

I am not really worried after a game like that but more amazed and wondering what happened to our offensive structure?

                
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worm
Post Subject: RE: Clippers Vs. Hawks Official Game Thread 2013-12-04 Post ID: 418663by worm » Dec 05, 2013 - 09:30 AM PST
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CP3 should give the ball for Griffin in the low post,in the start of the game 2 good plays made by Blake .Without JJ our main offense should be Blake during last night game our wings are not working our only weapon should be Blake on the post.

                
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Silasie
Post Subject: RE: Clippers Vs. Hawks Official Game Thread 2013-12-04 Post ID: 418675by Silasie » Dec 05, 2013 - 10:43 AM PST
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I really really hope we win tonight. Of course it is always important to beat the Grizzlies but it seems more so after our last two poor showings. Last night was just plain bad and the Pacers game we had several oppurtunties to beat an elite team that is flying high.

We need to beat the Enemy to restore our confidence and put the last 2 games behind us.

                
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ArtMaggot
Post Subject: RE: Clippers Vs. Hawks Official Game Thread 2013-12-04 Post ID: 418687by ArtMaggot » Dec 05, 2013 - 12:43 PM PST
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Did anyone notice the jawing between Elton and Blake?

                
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austin009009
Post Subject: RE: Clippers Vs. Hawks Official Game Thread 2013-12-04 Post ID: 418707by austin009009 » Dec 05, 2013 - 03:10 PM PST
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We need a win tonight, CP3 just needs to up the tempo

                
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austin009009
Post Subject: RE: Clippers Vs. Hawks Official Game Thread 2013-12-04 Post ID: 418708by austin009009 » Dec 05, 2013 - 03:10 PM PST
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they lose a lot of play making without gasol

                
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austin009009
Post Subject: RE: Clippers Vs. Hawks Official Game Thread 2013-12-04 Post ID: 418709by austin009009 » Dec 05, 2013 - 03:10 PM PST
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conley is an average PG in the play making regard

                
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toohipcliptoslip
Post ID: 418718by toohipcliptoslip » Dec 05, 2013 - 04:09 PM PST
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Was Elton better than Blake in his prime?

EB was consistently 20/10 Better defender, better shot blocker, better FT shooter. decent mid range shot better post up?

I wish we had EB. In the pre CBA days he would be worth tax

                
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clipnasty
Post ID: 418719by clipnasty » Dec 05, 2013 - 04:15 PM PST
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Elton seemingly was really good for a few years, then had a big drop-off. I think that overall Blake will be better for longer and have a better career.

That being said, 05-06 Elton was a beast.

                
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Agent0
Post ID: 418747by Agent0 » Dec 05, 2013 - 07:24 PM PST
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I don't really get what you mean by "limiting them to less opportunities". If you limit them to less opportunities, you also have less opportunities yourself, so you still have to limit them better on each possession to play good defense and to not make your offense have to to be super efficient to win. If you are saying turnovers, well pts/100 possessions takes into account turnovers, you held them to 0 pts in a turnover possession.

In thee same line, you said "we are currently the 9th worst defense". Isn't that "Just because this stat says this, it doesn't automatically mean that." I'd say so.

Do your conclusions and the reasoning really flow? So if the Clippers were playing the slowest pace in the league, let's say 88 possessions per game but giving up 1.10 pts/possession, 96.8 pts/game, and higher opponent FG% and 3PT%, what does that mean about the defense? Better or worse?

Isn't cutting through all the other mumbo jumbo basically "not taking into account what factors into that". Why did they only give up 97 pts, was it because they defended well, or because they played slower. If they play a faster team and give up 101 pts, did they automatically play worse defense? How can we just look at PPG and not look at FG%, 3PT%, TOV, seems like that's the worse way, not the better way to do it, but that's just me.

                
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Agent0
Post ID: 418777by Agent0 » Dec 05, 2013 - 07:41 PM PST
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Some teams grind because the less possessions there are, the more likely it is for them to be closer in the score and to be able to pull out wins. Some teams because of personnel, just different reasons.

Yes, you have to watch and look at all the numbers, not just PPG. Drtg combines all the relative numbers for you so you don't have to watch 30 teams each 1o times to be able to get a feel for who the best defenses are. Drtg correlates with the eye test also, though you still have to look at why a team is good on defense.

Here are the top defenses according to Drtg: Indiana San Antonio Charlotte Chicago Oklahoma 15th - Memphis

PPG says: Indiana Charlotte San Antonio Chicago Memphis 12th - OKC

PPG isn't totally off because most teams will land in the average pace range, so the opponent PPG numbers will line up with who is defending best per possession. Since if everyone is playing the same pace, then PPG is pts/possession.

...but, when a team doesn't fall in the average range, then problems arise. For example, OKC is 12th on defense according to opponent PPG, but no opponent playing them doesn't consider them a top 5 defense. On an average possession, OKC is defending you at a high level.

That's where we are differing.

Drtg is perfect because not everyone plays the same opponents, but it will give you ranges and tiers of where teams are on defense. For example, 17th (105.4) and 21st (105.8) are not in different abilities in terms of defense.

                
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Agent0
Post ID: 418795by Agent0 » Dec 05, 2013 - 07:54 PM PST
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Wasn't trying to be condescending, sorry about that.

I guess you are really arguing semantics then. I should have been more clear though, so my bad. What I meant is that the Drtg / defensive rank relative to the league got better, not that the team specifically got better playing defense.

The defense in general looked better because they were playing less potent offenses, yes, but the defense also looked worse than it actually earlier because the Clippers were playing such potent offense.

So in essence it was really just trending to the normal.

Still, even with PPG, Clippers are in the middle of the pack.

The elite defenses are usually: 1-5ish The good defenses about 6-10ish The average then widely ranges with below and above average being there from about 11-23ish The poor defenses are usually about 24-30

Those numbers are static, they fluctuate of course.

So again, probably semantics. You had a different understanding of what I meant by "middle of the pack". For example, in Drtg itself, 13-23 ranges from 105.1 - 106.3, so most teams in there are in about the same range of defensive ability.

                
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CP3Heliflopter
Post Subject: RE: Clippers Vs. Hawks Official Game Thread 2013-12-04 Post ID: 418965by CP3Heliflopter » Dec 05, 2013 - 09:42 PM PST
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We are a middle of the pack defensive team and you can't use ppg since we play faster than most teams.

Benching Mullens has actually made our defense a lot better.

                
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Agent0
Post ID: 418988by Agent0 » Dec 06, 2013 - 12:32 AM PST
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That is true, since Mullens hasn't played, the defense has been much better. It was really weird that a seemingly insignificant player could have such a negative impact on the teams defensive output.

                
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clipperboy24
Post ID: 419019by clipperboy24 » Dec 06, 2013 - 02:17 PM PST
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That's the problem with statistics, they are useless unless they are put into work and that involves knowing more than just how to pull up stats.

I think a fan with decent knowledge and overall basketball awareness could see just by watching Mullens he negatively affected the game via a 3 headed monster approach:

-His actual defense is atrocious, it's a combination of him not knowing what to do, not trying and pretending to make the effort to defend.

-his rebounding is basically the same thing with very little effort put into boxing out (if any)

  • he takes very many long ill advised shots. The length of the shots hurts us two fold: 1. He is out of position to rebound and with the other people on the floor we usually need all the rebounding help possible, and 2. His long shot attempts often lead to long rebounds allowing the other team to already get the transition into offense and the big guarding him is already on the perimeter so that is one more person who usually would be out on the break.
                
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tense2
Post ID: 419021by tense2 » Dec 06, 2013 - 02:24 PM PST
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Certain sites "saw" that and put out that data way before we signed him.

                
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Agent0
Post ID: 419022by Agent0 » Dec 06, 2013 - 02:26 PM PST
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Wow, I just went back and looked at my posts, and I never even said the defense has been "better", just that it has been on the rise, didn't even check what I had posted. So I take my apology back, lol, I stand by my first post which was implying that the defense was on the rise in comparison to other teams in the league because that's what I said lol

Every team has zone principles (not actual zone) mixed into their defense, Indiana does too, I don't focus enough on them to be able to tell you who plays more of less, they both play man but the systems differ. Most teams will throw in some sort of system to guard pick and rolls and to rotate. Indiana plays a soft ICE with Hibbert because he isn't mobile, but then they hedge with their PF's because they are more capable of hedge and recover.

Clippers hedge with all the bigs. Those are both man to man systems, but there's help principles of where you go if this or that happens. NBA players are too good for a straight up no system man to man defense to be successful, communication and a system are the key to successful NBA defense.

                
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pageC4
Post ID: 419028by pageC4 » Dec 06, 2013 - 05:06 PM PST
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very good debate. Eltons defense is huge.

                
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CP3Heliflopter
Post ID: 419030by CP3Heliflopter » Dec 06, 2013 - 05:10 PM PST
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Huh? On and off stats have shown that he was a historically bad defender. Well before he became a Clipper.

And even though you say that it was Doc who pushed for him. A lot of people see him play and actually think he is a useful player(not me of course, I thought he was a homeless man's version of Bargnani) so that is not really true.

                
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CP3Heliflopter
Post ID: 419031by CP3Heliflopter » Dec 06, 2013 - 05:14 PM PST
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Brand is in my opinion the most underrated PF ever. The problem is he couldn't sustain his elite play for long due to injury and he played on not so great teams.

Yea 06 Brand is better than any version of Blake handily though Blake has a lot of time to improve. The biggest difference in my opinion is the defense. Brand was an elite defender though he got no all defensive teams(the award doesn't have much credibility tbh).

                
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A_DOG_NAMED_BUD
Post ID: 419032by A_DOG_NAMED_BUD » Dec 06, 2013 - 05:40 PM PST
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Yes, in his prime, Brand was a much better overall player than Blake.

I've heard some people say that CP3 needs a David West type player to play with again and when EB was in his prime he was the rich man's West. He had a good mid range game and was a better defender and rebounder than West. I know it's pointless now, but could you imagine CP3 and a young EB together? That would have been the second coming of Stockton and Malone. If only EB hadn't injured his achilles.

                
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clipperboy24
Post ID: 419033by clipperboy24 » Dec 06, 2013 - 05:57 PM PST
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I think the "huh?" Should be for you. Where did I say this was only apparent on the clippers? Also I never stated anything about Doc pushing for him. I really don't know what you are talking about.

It really seems like some people on the board get so defensive at the thought of currently used advanced or basic stats not giving the whole picture.

I love statistics they are just data compilations I just think there is more involved in the interpretation not just the gathering aspect.

                
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tense2
Post ID: 419037by tense2 » Dec 06, 2013 - 06:49 PM PST
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We moved up to 13th in Drtg so we're going in the right direction. We're 6th in the league in opponent 3PT% @ 33.8 even with that bad game in Atlanta.

Let's see where we are after the next 20 games.

                
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CP3Heliflopter
Post ID: 419042by CP3Heliflopter » Dec 06, 2013 - 08:25 PM PST
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And no one suggested that stats gave you the whole picture. Obviously you can't get a clear picture just by looking at the numbers and not watching actual games. I don't think anyone has suggested otherwise.

                
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Agent0
Post ID: 419045by Agent0 » Dec 06, 2013 - 08:53 PM PST
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^No one has, which is why it is so weird that some people keep beating up the argument of "you can know everything by just only looking at the stats" as if anyone is saying or suggesting or even implying that, lol

Just weird.

Wait, what did my post have to do with a problem with statistics?

In terms of Mullens, yea, I agree. I said he was both horrible offensively and defensively in the off-season as I consistently complained about how I hated the signing. Said it again in the pre-season and for just about every minute he played during the regular season, so I was well aware that he was terrible at basketball in general.

..but you know, some people said he could shoot a jumpshot at a terrible percentage (which was somehow valuble) and this one time last season had a good game, so you know, he can create or something like that, lol

What I meant is that I forgot that earlier in the season we were actually playing Mullens and didn't take that into account.

What was interesting was how badly he was impacting the defense. Bad defenders are what they are, but Mullens was negatively impacting the defense at rates that didn't even make sense for a bad defender.


More about the defense, the Clippers have held opponents over the last 5 games to 95.9 Ortg (according to NBA.com).

http://stats.nba.com/leagueTeamGeneral. ... tOrder=ASC

Calculating from basketball-reference says 101.8, they calculate differently.

5 games is 5 games, can't project because of small sample, but if we are talking about improving recently, it supports that.

vs Clippers / season average New York 88.7 Ortg / 103.4 Ortg (19th) Sacramento 102.3 Ortg / 103.7 Ortg (16th) Indiana 111.8 Ortg / 104.5 Ortg (14th) Atlanta 115.9 Ortg / 104.0 Ortg (15th) Memphis 90.2 Ortg / 103.1 (21st) Average 101.8 Ortg / 103.7 Ortg

-Atlanta's offense is probably better than their average because it tanked a bit while Korver was injured[/list]

No defense is great every game, the Indiana and Atlanta game were poor as we all know. Held opponents below their average offensive ability 4 out of last 6 games, nice, nice. Considering that the first 6 games of the season 5/6 teams had a higher Ortg than their season average vs LAC, it is quite good. Orlando is the only one that had lower, but Clips offense was awful in that game. So playing bad defense 5/6 games obviously wasn't going to work.

So despite playing mediocre offenses, Clippers have actually shut a couple of them down in comparison to their average production so far this season. On average, they have defended well, holding the teams to 1.9 pts/100 less than their average. That's a good sign, but we need a larger sample before we can really start to gauge anything.

                
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clipper*joe
Post ID: 419063by clipper*joe » Dec 07, 2013 - 10:12 AM PST
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Uh, if your team defense is on the rise the last previous 5 games, as you say...Would that be considered a upward trend? Say that is the case. So based on the claim, didn't you imply that the defense has gotten "better" over the last 5 games? Maybe I took too much liberty with your chosen phrase but that I thought that is what you implied.

                
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Voyeur
Post Subject: RE: Clippers Vs. Hawks Official Game Thread 2013-12-04 Post ID: 419075by Voyeur » Dec 07, 2013 - 02:29 PM PST
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Ugh. Must we continue to keep alive the thread of a game I think we'd ALL like to forget?

                
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Agent0
Post ID: 419076by Agent0 » Dec 07, 2013 - 03:23 PM PST
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Yea, I actually wasn't speaking of the defense playing better outside of what we noticed in terms of the defense improving without Mullens playing, but in that instance, I meant that the defensive ranking was on the rise, that's why I said "up from almost last to an average defense now", I was referring to the defensive ranking of the team relative to the league.

Of course this is a downfall of communication via text.

                
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