Clippers Topbuzz
Post new topic   Reply to topic
← Clippers Reunite Soldier With His Family (Video) Log in to check your private messages → Blake Griffin Gets Lot of Blame While Chris Paul Gets a Pass
Author   
FightOnRon
Post Subject: INSIDER: Top Overachievers, Underachievers (Blake an Under) Post ID: 421868by FightOnRon » Dec 18, 2013 - 08:46 PM PST
CTB MVP X1
 Avatar

Posts: 4226
Location: The Darkside
us.gif

Reputation: 304.6Reputation: 304.6 Rep Post +1
votes: 35

We're at an interesting juncture of the NBA season in that we have enough accumulated data to get a bead on the storylines generated by our preseason projections but it's early enough that these solid-seeming trends can turn into fool's gold.

With that in mind, let's run through some of the key overachievers and underachievers among the league's players so far in the 2013-14 campaign.

I'm labeling an overachiever as anyone whose WARP to date outstrips the preseason forecast set by ATH, the projection module in my suite of analysis tools. The converse is true for underachievers. Note that the players I'm expounding on below are simply the ones I find most interesting in each group, so please don't read this as a leaderboard.

Key overachievers

Paul George, Indiana Pacers WARP: 2.73 over projection George has become one of the NBA's premier shot-makers, and the Pacers have accordingly shifted the heavy lifting of their offense onto his shoulders. His usage rate has jumped 5 percentage points, and the increased workload has left George's efficiency unaffected. His true shooting percentage has improved from .531 to .590. Plus, his turnover rate has decreased. George's floor stats are all either stagnant or down, but the huge uptick in point production has more than boosted his bottom-line value.

At 23 years old and in his fourth season, George is at the point of a player's career that is typical for a star to manifest his potential. We saw his improvement on an almost game-by-game basis during the last postseason, so this season's leap is really no surprise. To his credit, coach Frank Vogel recognized what he had and tweaked his offense accordingly. The only red flag is George's success on corner 3s. He has hit 24-of-39 (62 percent) from that area, partly a result of the focus of his offseason program. It's probably not a sustainable rate, but a regression on those shots will do little to undermine George's campaign for a good many MVP votes.

Spencer Hawes, Philadelphia 76ers WARP: 1.88 over projection It's easy to forget that Hawes, now in his seventh NBA season, is just 25 years old. He entered the league as a face-up big who took more perimeter shots than he should have given his success rate. When Hawes moved to Philadelphia, he focused his game on becoming a more traditional center. The past two years Hawes has increasingly drifted back out to the arc, and this season the results have been stunning. Hawes is hitting 44 percent from 3-point range, with nearly all of those looks coming from above the break.

While Hawes' defensive rebounding and block percentages have also edged upward, it's the 3-point rate that has boosted his value. Given that he's shooting 10 percentage points better than his career rate on 3s, some regression is likely. However, with the Sixers rebuilding and Hawes on a reasonable expiring contract, it's unclear why his name doesn't come up more often in trade rumors. Hawes could move the needle for a number of contending teams.

Lance Stephenson, Indiana Pacers WARP: 1.56 over projection The under-reported aspect of the Pacers' rise has been their player development system, with Stephenson being just the latest player to evolve from a modest draft position into a true impact performer. Roy Hibbert, George and Danny Granger all fall under this category. The Pacers' scouting department deserves a ton of credit for seeing key qualities in these young players that other organizations missed.

Stephenson's numbers entering this season were lackluster, and from that standpoint, his track record did little to stir my projection system. As Stephenson has become a more focused and efficient offensive player, the Pacers have shifted some of George Hill's playmaking role over to him. Stephenson may have entered the league with a gunner's mentality, but the Pacers have convinced him that his all-around base of skills is the true source of his value.

DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors WARP: 1.49 over projection Long despised by analytics, DeRozan's game has become more efficient thanks to improved shot selection and playmaking. More of his shot attempts have come from behind the arc, and while DeRozan's stroke is still inconsistent, he is shooting the 3 at a career-high rate (33 percent). His assist rate is also a career best, and two of his three highest assist totals for the season have come since the Raptors traded Rudy Gay to the Kings. DeRozan is not a star, but he has become a truly productive player.

Key underachievers

Josh Smith, Detroit Pistons WARP: 2.09 under projection The Pistons have to get more creative in order to get Smith back to focusing on the strengths of his game, which won't be easy with him playing the 3 most of the time. Smith is grabbing fewer rebounds, making fewer plays and blocking fewer shots as his defensive assignments draw him away from the lane. What he's done more of is launch jump shots, many of them 3s, but his ability to make them is as bad as ever. Detroit has had some impressive performances this season, and Smith has had some big games. Overall though, Detroit has yet to maximize the odd-fitting, but talented, core of its roster.

J.R. Smith, New York Knicks WARP: 2.05 under projection Smith has embodied the enigmatic nature of this season's Knicks. He simply hasn't looked like the same player since returning from early-season knee surgery. Smith has long been one of the league's streakiest shooters, but this season the valleys have come without any peaks to offset them. Only twice this season has Smith made half his shots in a game. His 3-point shooting is average for the third straight season, but his inability to convert inside the arc has to make you wonder if the knee trouble is lingering. Smith has made just 33 of 100 2-point shots and just 22 of 53 in the paint. If the problem is physical in nature, his production may not rebound.

Griffin Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers WARP: 1.55 under projection Griffin is still an All-Star and is playing more minutes this season, which props up his per-game averages. On a per-minute basis, his production is pretty much a doppelganger for his career baseline. And that's fine, except that, given his age (24) and record of production, my projection system saw Griffin taking a step forward this season, not backward. Part of that may be the Clippers' system under Doc Rivers, which de-emphasizes offensive rebounding. That detracts from one of Griffin's offensive strengths.

Paul Pierce, Brooklyn Nets WARP: 1.49 under projection Pierce's story could be swapped with that of longtime teammate Kevin Garnett. Both have suffered from moving to supporting roles in their first season with the Nets. For Pierce, that's meant less time with the ball in his hands, and only recently has he begun to display any kind of offensive rhythm. The good news is that the recent improvement has coincided with his move to the bench. The bad news is that the uptick in efficiency has been as a low-usage, spot-up shooter, and that's not Pierce either.



                
      Back to top
Steady818
Post Subject: RE: INSIDER: Top Overachievers, Underachievers (Blake an Und Post ID: 421873by Steady818 » Dec 18, 2013 - 08:54 PM PST
Clipper All-Star
Posts: 1455
Location: North Hollywoooooood 818
am.gif

Rep Post +1
votes: 11

Blake is always being labeled something negative by the media.. Just seems like a routine now especially throughout ESPN analysts.

                
      Back to top
A7XDreamTheaterClipps
Post Subject: RE: INSIDER: Top Overachievers, Underachievers (Blake an Und Post ID: 421879by A7XDreamTheaterClipps » Dec 18, 2013 - 09:25 PM PST
Clipper Starter
Posts: 683
Rep Post +1
votes: 4

Unless Blake is averaging 30/15/5/3/3 on 60/80 while scull f***** everyone'moms, he's underachieving.

                
      Back to top
ClippersDA
Post Subject: RE: INSIDER: Top Overachievers, Underachievers (Blake an Und Post ID: 422301by ClippersDA » Dec 20, 2013 - 12:21 PM PST
Clipper All-Star
Posts: 2451
Rep Post +1
votes: 6

I was listening to Colin cowherd this morning and wish I hadn't. In a rant against Melo and the excuse that he has bad pieces around him, Colin started comparing Melo to Cp3, saying hat cp3 basically has garbage around him (specifically mentioning jared Dudley and DJ). however, he then said something like - "and Blake Griffin? He can't score unless it is on volleyball spikes or fast break points - he has no jump shot and can't make a free throw." Ummmmmmmmm excuse me? Does that clown even watch clippers games? I think he just else's himself as an ultimate fake and it really irritated me. I almost wanted to call in and ask him when the last time was he watched a clips game.

                
      Back to top
pageC4
Post ID: 422304by pageC4 » Dec 20, 2013 - 12:40 PM PST
CTB MVP X1
 Avatar

Posts: 4142

us.gif

Reputation: 165.5Reputation: 165.5 Rep Post +1
votes: 19

of course he doesn't watch the games. anyone who does wouldn't say that about Blake. in fact, my wife and I shake our head anytime Blake makes a shot and we respond with "that Blake Griffin, all he does is dunk the ball."

                
      Back to top
Greenmonk94
Post Subject: RE: INSIDER: Top Overachievers, Underachievers (Blake an Und Post ID: 422306by Greenmonk94 » Dec 20, 2013 - 12:50 PM PST
Clipper All-Star
Posts: 1053
Rep Post +1
votes: 2

I think he is under achieving also.. He hasn't played much like he did in the spurs game.. Once him playing like that becomes normal.. Then he will be what people expected him to be...

                
      Back to top
TheDude
Post Subject: RE: INSIDER: Top Overachievers, Underachievers (Blake an Und Post ID: 422308by TheDude » Dec 20, 2013 - 01:08 PM PST
CTB MVP X1


Posts: 2598

wz.gif

Rep Post +1
votes: 30

He's underachieving vs. this guy's projection before the season. He doesn't have a 1.55warp. He's 1.55warp under what this guy got out of his own computer program. Dumb article. Blake has been consistently dominant and he'll continue to be. No matter what, there's always going to be jealousy. We know what we have in Blake.

                
      Back to top
wessleejr
Post Subject: RE: INSIDER: Top Overachievers, Underachievers (Blake an Und Post ID: 422309by wessleejr » Dec 20, 2013 - 01:47 PM PST
Clipper Starter
Posts: 879

us.gif

Rep Post +1
votes: 2

they should put, CP3, lebron d-wade kobe duncan in under achiever lol! (just joking)

                
      Back to top
ClippersDA
Post Subject: RE: INSIDER: Top Overachievers, Underachievers (Blake an Und Post ID: 422310by ClippersDA » Dec 20, 2013 - 02:16 PM PST
Clipper All-Star
Posts: 2451
Reputation: 79.9Reputation: 79.9Reputation: 79.9 Rep Post +1
votes: 6

I do wonder if blake will have another game like the one against the pacers in January of 2011. Over 40 points, 14 boards and tons of assists. Blake could score closest to 30 I do believe that. But he is hardly a one trick pony.

                
      Back to top
Go To the Top of the ThreadGo Home

or Comment Using FB

Post new topic   Reply to topic
← Clippers Reunite Soldier With His Family (Video) Log in to check your private messages → Blake Griffin Gets Lot of Blame While Chris Paul Gets a Pass


← Clippers Reunite Soldier With His Family (Video)

→ Blake Griffin Gets Lot of Blame While Chris Paul Gets a Pass

Related Topics
Topic Replies Posted
No new posts Blake Griffin is Already in the Warriors' Heads 95 Apr 16, 2014 - 06:46 PM
No new posts Blake Griffin Suspended 1 Game for 16th Technical Foul 5 Apr 16, 2014 - 02:15 PM
No new posts Slam Magazine: Blake Griffin, Man of the Year 0 Apr 16, 2014 - 10:47 AM
No new posts The New Blake Griffin, in the Words of His Teammates 3 Apr 09, 2014 - 10:37 PM
No new posts Think You Know Blake Griffin Well? Take the Quiz! 4 Apr 03, 2014 - 02:38 PM


register
You are an anonymous user- Register now!


Follow our Los Angeles Clippers RSS Feed, plus the Clippers Rumors RSS Feed, the LA Clippers News RSS feed, and the Clippers Forum RSS feed to get the newest updated Clippers News and Trade Rumors plus Clippers Game update in your RSS/XML reader!