Clippers vs. Kings Game Thread 2014-04-12 (P. 2)

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Clippers_FTW
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first one i've seen him dunk... was beginning to think he couldnt

gman
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Blake with the best air-ball i have ever seen.Nothing but bottom of the net.

ClipperDodger1214
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Come on guys this game is far from over. Cousins can make it a 2 point game.

gman
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Hey DJ maybe you should help Big baby when he is helping on Pick and roll.

ClipperDodger1214
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Wow that was a god awful possession.

Icecoldclipper
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Blake great work on the steal

WinningBasket
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Welcome back, Jamal!! Superb two bingos in a row!

ClipperDodger1214
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Man these guys just won't go away.

ClipperDodger1214
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There we go, much better.

ClipperDodger1214
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Man can Blake dish the ball or what?

Agent0
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This was a really good game actually, I guess the Saturday afternoon didn't work for a lot of people. The CP, Blake/DJ combination off the pick and roll is great.

It was also really nice to see Jamal back and even have his little two 3PT streak

WinningBasket
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Great win for the Clips! Sweep of the Kings and tied the most wins of the franchise.

Icecoldclipper
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Cousins and Griffin having a good talk it seems.

ohMEohMy!
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Good game. Really interesting to see Blake and Cousins cordially talking to each other like that after the game. Could this be the beginning of a new friendship??? haha

ClippersDA
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Is it true that our defensive rating is better with dj on bench? That doesn't seem right

Icecoldclipper
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Felt we were more aggressive tonight and attacked well making the pick and roll instead three ball a key play. As a team we just need to get better on defense and rebounding.

ClipperKyle32
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I am waiting for the day that all four California teams make the playoffs. Just how Texas has the luxury of all 3 Rexas teams "might" make the playoffs. I am pulling for Dallas tonight

TheDude
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wow gotta be shortest game thread of the season. Team played pretty well, can't complain. Almost surreal to see Jamal and JJ "healthy" in the same game. Hope they can keep that going for the next 20-25 games.

granger still out, it's a shame he's probably not going to be a rotation guy for us in the playoffs if he's still hurt now.

ClippersDA
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I think granger will still be a rotation guy

cleepers
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Repped High Quality Post

Rexas?

Is that you, Scooby-Doo? Yellow_Flash_Colorz_PDT_08

Agent0
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Yes it is, marginally, 105.3 on, 104.4 off, that's a 0.9 difference. This could mean that the defense is better without DJ, this could mean that Ryan Hollins despite his fouling does a lot of other things really well on defense to make up for it, this could mean that DJ plays with non-favorable defensive lineups more than other starters, so we'll have to get some context.

Most (all?) teams starters have a higher Ortg than their bench, so if the opposing bench and starters played equal level defense, their bench would have a lower Drtg because they are playing against an inferior offense. If the bench and starters have the same Drtg, then your starters are actually the better defensive unit because they are accomplishing the same defense against better offensive players. If your starters have a significantly better one (like 2 pts/100), then they are much better

If DJ is primarily on with the starters, then he's on mostly with the other teams best offensive players. Okay, so let's look at CP and Blake to see how this plays out.

Defensive Rating

CP: On (103.1) / Off (107.5) = (-4.4)

Blake: On (104.5) / Off (106.4) = (-1.9)

*Minus being a good thing, meaning the team is giving up less points, just so no one is wondering why that seems odd

Now, the starters don't play ALL their minutes together, but here we see that in contrast to DJ, the team has lower Drtg with Paul and Blake on than off, so that doesn't help DJ. Does this say DJ is a bad defender? No, not at all, but it does suggest that he is probably not a dominant defender (but then again, we already knew this didn't we?). It could also be a product of the minutes he isn't with the other starters, maybe in those minutes he's with poor defensive units.

Here are on/off numbers that would suggest dominant defensive impact on that team:

Marc Gasol 12-13: on (98.2) / off (105.1)

...but context is important, wasn't Marc Gasol always on with Conley and Allen?

Allen 12-13: on (97.2) / Off (103.8)

Conley 12-13: on (97.8) / Off (105.9)

So this seems to suggest more of a starting lineup that is dominant defensively as a unit, without a clear highest impact guy being suggested, but you would need to examine other things to get a better understanding such as who everyone is playing with, who is the main cog in keeping the defense intact. This season with Allen coming off the bench, we see this:

Allen: on (103.3) / off (105.4)

M.Gasol: on (105.1) / off (104.3)

M.Conley: on (106.2) / off (102.4)

Is this significant? Well, Allen is now coming off the bench (28/52) games in favor of the better shooter in Lee. He has the best on/off defensive numbers, so this seems to suggest that maybe Allen (who played 79 games last season) is actually their highest impact defender of the three...but he's also now playing against more benches / bench players, and maybe he's just getting put in more favorable lineups, so this alone can't be used to conclude anything. We'd need some good film analysis and some other supporting numbers at least.

In the end though, something like Defensive RAPM would give you a more accurate description, high and low players put for reference.

Defensive RAPM

Andre Iguodala: 5.5

Kevin Garnett / Larry Sanders: 4.2

Marc Gasol: 4.1 (Allen - 2.4 , Conley - 1.8, Gasol still wins)

Tim Duncan: 3.4

Dwight Howard: 3.3

Amir Johnson: 2.6

Patrick Beverly: 2.5 (Harden: -1.2)

Chris Paul: 1.8

Blake Griffin: 1.5

DeAndre Jordan: 0.6

Marco Belinelli: -3.0

Jimmer Fredette: -3.2

Eric Gordon: -3.5

Gary Neal: -3.7

Byron Mullens: -4.5

We see a good correlation to who we consider good defenders and who we consider bad defenders, so that gives us some validity confidence. RAPM seems to line up with the basic on/off that DJ is an averageish overall impact defender and Blake and Paul have been the ones who are more "plus" defenders this season.

Other Clippers Defensive RAPM

Redick: -1.7

Collison: -1.6

Crawford: -0.8

Green: -0.2

Hedo: -0.1

Barnes: 0.7

Bullock: 0.7

Dudley: 0.8

Davis: 1.0

Granger: 1.6

Hollins: 2.9

Davis and Granger are not Clipper numbers, those are season numbers. Again, RAPM is not a be all / end all, it is better to look at it over multiple seasons and if patterns continue, then it is more suggestive of whatever it was saying. The Clippers most mis-matched position is starting SG. Collison and Redick have played the most minutes there, so maybe there is a correlation with them being the lowest.

Hollins comes out with flying colors here, he does have the hustle, I'll give him that. All the SF's have shown the be almost exactly the same range on defense and all quite average. Paul being a good and positive impact defender (which we all already know this season) is supported by him being the only positive guard on the team, and Will the closest is 2 points back (1.8 to -0.2).

Random comments

Seriously Mullens? Only player with a -4 or lower defensive RAPM, I didn't think it was that bad. Iguodala has been great for Golden State despite the not so impressive raw numbers, he's brought great defensive impact, and there are a lot of things supporting his defensive impact for them. Him and Bogut's defense is going to be the biggest factor for Golden State doing anything in the post-season after / in conjunction with the shooting and the play of Curry.

RAPM Reference: http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/2014.html

Basketball-Reference for On/Off stats

CP3Heliflopter
CTB MVP X2
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^Mullens was bad enough to make us the worst defense in the league when he played significant minutes. He is the anti Tim Duncan on defense.

Not surprised at all. I hated that piece of turd. The only Clippers player I have ever legitimately hated.

As for DJ he plays A LOT of minutes with the bench so I am not surprised.

MunoValente
Clipper Starter
Posts: 379
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We've played good defense with Hollins on the floor, he's long, mobile and he's veteran with ok decision making. He's still a net negative because he's bad at other things, especially fouls and turnovers, but he's a good defender, especially as an interior help defender.

Hollins defense wasn't as good last year, I don't think VDN utilized him as well. Hollins had really good defensive on/off numbers when he was Doc on the Celtics though. Doc I think is good at getting long bigs to play defense. Perkins did well with him, Hollins has and Jordan is improved this year.

david
Site Admin
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votes: 42

A workman-like win for the Clippers vs a team that actually really wanted to win. Good job by Blake, CP, DJ (other than the free throws), and Barnes. Nice to see Jamal back and hit a pair of big 3's to help seal the win.

And yeah that was interesting to see Blake & Cousins talking there at the end of the game. Not sure what Blake said, but Cousins cracked a smile said "I had no idea".

ClippersDA
CTB MVP X1
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Ya I really want to know what blake and cousins said

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