The difference between 50 and 52.5 percent is about $100 million annually, based on last season’s revenues, or $1 billion over the course of the 10-year agreement the NBA is seeking.
The cost of not making a deal is a $2 billion.
The owners, who own valuable stadium deals, can make up some of their losses by selling those contracts for the season. The players would get none of that.
So the players loose as much in a single year by not making a deal, as they would lose over 10 years if they signed a 50-50 deal. The owners lose less than that. Plus, the loss of that year puts financial pressure on the players to cave in to the demand at the end of that year anyway.
Looks like the players need to give in. Holding out only hurts them financially any way you look at it. And the owners know this.