Potential Impact of Lost Season on 2012 Draft

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Yaroslavs#1Fan
Clipper Starter
Posts: 703
votes: 18

With today's unfortunate lockout news, it's time to start thinking as if there will not be a 2011-2012 NBA season. If that is the case, how will the NBA lottery be conducted? Well according to Ric Bucher, it will most likely either be "3 seasons aggregated for order, then lottery for worst 14" or "5 seasons aggregated for order, then lottery for worst 14."

If scenario #1 unfolded where it was based on the last 3 seasons, here is what the lottery standings would look like:

  1. T-Wolves (Clippers)

  2. Kings

  3. Wizards

  4. Nets

  5. Clippers

  6. Warriors

  7. Raptors

  8. Pistons

  9. Knicks

  10. Pacers

  11. 76ers

  12. Grizzlies

  13. Bobcats

  14. Bucks

If however it were based off of the last 5 years like scenario #2, the Clippers would then jump from #5 to #3 and the Timberwolves would remain at #1. Therefore, the Clippers would have both the 1st and 3rd best odds in the lottery since they own Minnesota's first round pick in 2012 unprotected. In both of these scenarios, the Clippers would be in great position. If it is based off of the last 3 years, the Clippers would have a 75% chance of a top 3 pick. If it is based off of the last 5 years, the Clippers would have an 89% chance of getting a top 3 pick. In addition, if it is based off of the last 3 years, the Clippers would at worst have the 4th and 8th picks of the draft (two top 8 picks in a loaded draft). However, if it were based off of the last 5 years, the Clippers would at worst have the 4th and 6th picks of the draft (two top 6 picks in a loaded draft). If either of these now seemingly likely scenarios unfold, the Clippers will be a very scary team going forward.

Oh, and don't forget the fact that this would put the Clippers in the drivers seat for a possible Chris Paul Trade Sweepstakes...

*Props to the CTB poster "Ricky" for the lottery standings in a last 3 season aggregate scenario.

blasana
Clipper Starter
Posts: 472
votes: 2

Maybe I'm wrong but didn't the Clippers trade their first round pick for next year? I think for Bledsoe right?

Yaroslavs#1Fan
Clipper Starter
Posts: 703
votes: 18

It only goes to the Celtics if it is outside of the top ten.

MannyA2
Clipper 6th Man
Posts: 102
votes: 0

If the season is cancelled the Clippers will go into the 2012/13 season with a payroll of about $24.3 mil plus $6.3 mil for Gordon and Jordan's Qualifing offer. Add about $9 mil for 2 top picks and you get around $40 mil. Amnesty Gomes and that free's up $4 mil. That would allow the team to sign Deron or CP3 straight up without trading any assets. That's what I'm hoping for, can someone tell me if their is something wrong in this plan?

david
Site Admin
Posts: 8623
votes: 42

^^That's a lot of cap space- you're probably right but how are you figuring only $24.3 mil for the existing players?

MannyA2
Clipper 6th Man
Posts: 102
votes: 0

I looked it up on Hoopshype. The $24,382,412 includes Mo William's $11 mil salary which we can amnesty insted of Gomes if we can get someone like CP3 or Deron. Gordon and Jordan would have very small cap holds so we would have to sign a free agent before we extend them but still, that is a ton of cap space even with 2 top picks!

david
Site Admin
Posts: 8623
votes: 42

^^That would pretty sweet- that doesn't include Kaman right? Such a team would be playoff force to be reckoned with- though Blake's contract extension will come up shortly too, so we'll need cap room his max salary.

Battlegun
Clipper All-Star
Posts: 1208
Location: California
votes: 5

The NBA and NBPA could agree on a, "2 years in college rule." That would rule out Drummond, Davis, Quincy Miller, Austin Rivers and a lot more.

clippersfan85
Clipper Starter
Posts: 859

calif.gif
votes: 2

With the cap space we have and the picks I think the future is bright for the Clippers whenever that next season begins.

It will be interesting to see how quickly the courts rule on the lockout. Everything I have read says that the league doesn't want to start the season later than Christmas because they would have to pay back broadcasting contracts. I hope that revenue sharing can be agreed upon before losing a whole season. Having a whole season off will undoubtedly damage the NBA's value and brand image. That will take years to repair to the point it was at during last year's finals.

clippersblue
Clipper Starter
Posts: 329
votes: 5

Is are Celtic pick really top ten protected considering we have the minnesota pick. does anyone know?

MannyA2
Clipper 6th Man
Posts: 102
votes: 0

We have the Minny pick no matter what! It's our's, no if's, no but's, no coconuts! As for our own pick, it was traded to the Thunder (who traded it to the Celtics) as a first round pick top 10 protected. So if it's 10th or better, we Keep it and will have 2 picks. If it's 11th or worse, Celtics get it and we only have one pick (the Minny pick)

blasana
Clipper Starter
Posts: 472
votes: 2

How long is the pick protected for?

clipper*joe
CTB MVP Champion
Posts: 15988
Location: los angeles
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votes: 127

I almost sure it's only protected for the the next draft. After that, it's theirs, not matter what.

Mistwell
Clipper Starter
Posts: 673
Location: Los Angeles
votes: 15

I don't see how there could be no draft. The draft agreement is not with the players or dependent on the union. The NBA can hold a draft even during a lockout.

illastrate
Clipper All-Star
Posts: 1646

us.gif
votes: 13

clipper*joe wrote:
blasana wrote:
How long is the pick protected for?

I almost sure it's only protected for the the next draft. After that, it's theirs, not matter what.

I believe it's top 10 protected until 2015?

clipper*joe
CTB MVP Champion
Posts: 15988
Location: los angeles
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votes: 127

illastrate wrote:
clipper*joe wrote:
blasana wrote:
How long is the pick protected for?

I almost sure it's only protected for the the next draft. After that, it's theirs, not matter what.

I believe it's top 10 protected until 2015?

I think you're right, my bad.

TheDude
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 2716

wz.gif
votes: 31

Still can't believe the season is probably not happening but we definitely look as good as anybody in the league going forward.

Two lottery picks in the best draft in years (maybe ever?), that's big.

If we get the first pick it's Drummond hands down. Dude is potential perrenial all-star and could render DJ expendable relatively quickly. (At worst a crazy good 2 man rotation at C.)

then get Barnes or Perry Jones to play the 3 and we're set for a decade. New CBA will cater to small market low budget teams and our ability to compete with Sterling's frugal team management will immediately improve. Truth is a hard cap would be good for the Clips because of our owner. The more strict the new agreement the better for us...And with all this young talent under contract we're ahead of the game from the start.

SamMays
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 4041
votes: 54

I'm a big UCONN fan. I've now seen every minute of every game Drummond has played in college... He needs another year... Otherwise all you're drafting is potential. The Huskies are currently using him off the bench in a three man rotation of bigs. He's a spectacular athlete, but he has a long way to go.

If he comes out this year, I wouldn't take a chance on him with a top five, there are just too many good players coming out, though I'd love to have him at 6 - 10. Frankly, I wouldn't take him ahead of Uconn's shooting guard, Jeremy Lamb.

I think Lamb combines the best of Ray Allen and Rip Hamilton... 6'5" with long arms. Tremendous athlete with great skills and a great shooting stroke already... He's going to be better in the pros than Allen or Hamilton, and that's saying something, because both were perennial all-stars in their prime.

Ricky
Clipper Starter
Posts: 712
votes: 7

The season is young. Drummond has plenty of time to grow. This time last season Barnes looked like a bust, but by tourney time he had blown up.

SamMays
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 4041
votes: 54

Believe me, I'm not saying Drummond is a bust. He's got a chance to be a great one, but based on what I've seen, he isn't a top 5 guy... Yes, he'll be better at the season's end, but the season is only four months long. He'll get more comfortable and learn to fit in better, but he's not going to develope skills he doesn't currently have, like a shooting touch... That comes in the summer to guys who work...

Too much of his worth is based on potential and in this year's draft there are too many sure things for me to take him top 5... Calhoun, who has been honest with his players, letting thtem go when they were ready, has said as much. "He's a great athlete, but not yet a great player." A second year in college, like Blake Griffin, will do him wonders.

I want players with developed skills. I am pro Drummond, but it is often a mistake to draft a player that high based on potential, or three year projections... For every Dwight Howard, who really delivers, there is an Eddy Curry or a Kwami Brown. There are too many better/safer choices this year...

Like I said, I can't even justify drafting him ahead of his Uconn teammate Jeremy Lamb if both came out this year... Lamb is a sure-fire NBA star... Hopefully, Drummond will stay for a second year at Uconn and make the discussion moot.

illastrate
Clipper All-Star
Posts: 1646

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votes: 13

Sam, who would you draft with the #1 and #5 picks?

clippersblue
Clipper Starter
Posts: 329
votes: 5

I heard there is talk they want to make the draft with each team getting an equal shot and there are others who say the past three years. The first would be totally unfair. You nurture an asset for five years only to see the minnesota pick have the potential to go between 1-28. No way, could the teams really do this. Imagine New York getting a number 1 pick or the lakers over teams that need it. Will this idea fly? Also, this amnesty is so unfair. Teams that trade their pick to get rid of a contract, baron now lose out. Not cool.

SamMays
CTB MVP X1
Posts: 4041
votes: 54

First of all, the only team I've really watched a lot of is Uconn... So those are the only players I feel like I can speak on with a degree of certainty... I've been really accurate in projecting Uconn players as pros because I see almost every game they play...

But I feel like you can almost take the first three based on need... Lamb, Barnes and Sullinger... I would put Davis and Drummond in the four and five spots in that order.

That said, either Drummond or Davis could end up being the best of the group... But with both of them, it's more based on potential than certainty...

So, I would go... Again, based on need...

  1. Lamb... will be an NBA all star for many years.

  2. Sullinger... will also be an excellent pro

  3. Barnes... Will also be excellent and a likely all-star

4 and 5... Drummond and Davis are harder to predict. They might be great, or they might just be good, athletic players who have solid careers.

I haven't seen Davis a whole lot, but Drummond has a lot of improving to do before he makes any NBA all star team...

For the Clips, I would take Barnes and which ever one of these guys falls to five... I've been looking at the mocks, and it seems there's a drop off after five...

But it's early. At this time last year I would have never suspected that Lamb would be the player he is now... The same may be true of Drummond and Davis. We'll see in June, but that's what I think now.

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